LTE Mobile Broadband Strategies - Consumer & Enterprise Markets; Devices & Chipsets 2009-2014

Published by: Juniper Research Limited

Published: Jun. 1, 2009 - 140 Pages

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

Introduction

The Big Picture: Mobile Subscriber Forecasts

Figure ES.1: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) by Region All Technologies, 2008 - 2014

Mobile Broadband Subscriber Forecasts

Figure ES.2: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table ES.1: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

LTE Mobile Subscriber Forecast

Table ES.2: Global LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) 2009 - 2014

Figure ES.3: Global LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) 2009 - 2014

Figure ES.4: Global LTE Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Region (m) 2009 - 2014

Table ES.3: Global LTE Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Region (m) 2009 - 2014

LTE Service Revenues Forecast

Figure ES.5: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenue Forecast ($m) 2009 - 2014

Figure ES.6: Global LTE Service Revenue Forecast by Region ($m) 2009 - 2014

LTE Network Access Forecast

Figure ES.7: LTE Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets - Enterprise & Consumer Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

LTE Devices Forecast

Figure ES.8: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer Devices Forecast by Type (Subscribers m) 2009 - 2014

Table ES.4: LTE Enabled Devices Forecast by Type (Subscribers m) 2009 - 2014

LTE Chipset Annual Shipment Forecast

Table ES.5: LTE Chipset Shipment Forecast by Device Type (m. pa) 2009 - 2014

Figure ES.9: LTE Chipset Revenue Forecast by Device Type ($m. pa) 2009 - 2014

Recommendations

Service Providers

Vendors

Mobile Broadband Market Drivers

1.1 Personal Connectivity: "Always On"

Figure 1.1: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle

1.2 Economic Growth

Figure 1.2: OECD Broadband Penetration and GDP per Capita

1.3 Emerging Mobile Youth Generation

Figure 1.3: Youth Mobile Requirements Survey Feedback

Figure 1.4: Youth Mobile - Next Generation Phones Survey Feedback

1.4 New Applications and Services

1.4.1 The Emergence of 3G and Mobile Content

Figure 1.5: Evolution of Mobile Applications over Time

Figure 1.6: Voice vs. Data ARPU 2008 by Country

Figure 1.7: UK Text Messaging Growth - SMS/MMS per quarter (m)

Figure 1.8: Global Mobile & Basic 3G Subscribers (m) in 2008 by Region

1.4.2 Growth of Mobile Commerce

Figure 1.9: Bank of America Mobile Banking Screens

Figure 1.10: mPoria Mobile Web Shopping Portal

1.4.3 Mobile Web 2.0 - Future Applications and Services

1.4.4 Growth of the Mobile Web

Figure 1.11 Mobile Internet Users by Region (m) 2009 & 2011

1.4.5 Video iPod Ignites Portable Video Revolution

1.4.6 Impact on Network Traffic

Figure 1.12: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast

i Device Types

Figure 1.16: LTE Device Introduction Timeline

ii Device Convergence

Figure 1.17: Garmin nüvifone G60

Figure 1.18 Acer Tempo DX900 Smart Phone

1.7.2 Data Traffic Monetisation

Figure 1.19: Data Traffic and Network Profitability Timeline

1.7.3 Spectrum: When and How Much?

Figure 1.20: LTE Potential Spectrum Bands

1.7.4 Voice over LTE

Mobile Subscriber Market Forecast

2.1 Subscriber Forecasting Technique

2.1.1 Methodology

Figure 2.1: LTE Market Forecast Methodology

2.1.2 Geographical Splits

2.1.3 Technology Splits

2.2 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast

Figure 2.2: Global Mobile Subscribers (m) by 8 Key Regions All Technologies, 2008 - 2014

Table 2.1: Global Mobile Subscribers (m) by 8 Key Regions All Technologies, 2008 - 2014

Figure 2.3: Global Mobile Subscriber Base, Market Share (%) by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014

2.2.1 North America

i. Mobile Subscriber Penetration

ii. Market Structure

2.2.2 South America

i. Diverse Region

ii. Mobile Subscriber Penetration Rates

iii. Dominant Technology

iv. Players in Region

2.2.3 Western Europe

i. Mobile Subscriber Penetration

ii. Market Structure

2.2.4 Eastern Europe

i. Mobile Subscriber Penetration

2.2.5 Far East & China

i. Mobile Subscriber Penetration

2.2.6 Indian Sub Continent

i. Mobile Subscriber Penetration

2.2.7 Rest of Asia Pacific

i. Mobile Subscriber Penetration

2.2.8 Africa & Middle East

i. Market Background

ii. Mobile Subscriber Penetration

iii. Players

iv. ARPU

2.3 3G and Mobile Broadband Subscriber Forecast

2.3.1 North America

Figure 2.4: North America Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.2: N. America Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

2.3.2 South America

Figure 2.5: South America Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.3: S. America Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

2.3.3 Western Europe

Figure 2.6: Western Europe Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.4: Western Europe Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

2.3.4 Eastern Europe

Figure 2.7: Eastern Europe Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.5: Eastern Europe Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

2.3.5 Far East & China

Figure 2.8: Far East & China Mobile Subscribers(m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.6: Far East & China Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

2.3.6 Indian Sub Continent

Figure 2.9: Indian Sub Continent Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.7: Indian Sub Continent Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

2.3.7 Rest of Asia Pacific

Figure 2.10: Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.8: Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

2.3.8 Africa & Middle East

Figure 2.11: Africa & Middle East Mobile Subscribers(m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.9: Africa & Middle East Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

2.3.9 Global

Figure 2.12: Global Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2009-2014

Table 2.10: Global Mobile Subscribers (m) by Technology (2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/ 3.9G) 2009 - 2014

Figure 2.13: Global Mobile Broadband 3.5G/3.9G Subscribers (m) Compared to 2G/2.5G/3G Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

3 LTE Market Status

3.1 TeliaSonera

3.2 NTT DoCoMo

Figure 3.1: NTT DoCoMo Super 3G (LTE) Timeplan

Figure 3.2: NTT DoCoMo Super 3G (LTE) Downlink Performance

3.3 Verizon, Vodafone & China Mobile

3.4 Telstra

3.5 KDDI

3.6 Softbank

3.7 T-Mobile

3.8 China Telecom

3.9 SK Telecom

3.10 Korea Telecom & KTF

Figure 3.3: KTF Network Evolution

3.11 Bell Canada & Telus

3.12 SmarTone-Vodafone

3.13 AT&T Mobility

3.14 Further MNOs and Other Network Operators

3.15 Conclusion

Table 3.1: LTE Development Scorecard by MNO - Trial Dates, Commercial Service Dates & Vendors Selected

Figure 3.4: Global LTE Development Assessment by MNO

4 LTE Market Forecasts: Subscribers and Revenues

4.1 LTE Subscriber Forecast

4.1.1 MNO Strategies

4.1.2 Guidance: Impact of the Downturn

4.1.3 North America

Figure 4.1: North America LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.1: North America LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.2: North America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.2: North America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

4.1.4 Western Europe

Figure 4.3: Western Europe LTE, HSPA and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.3: Western Europe LTE, HSPA and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.4: Western Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.4: Western Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

4.1.5 Far East & China

Figure 4.5: Far East & China LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.5: Far East & China LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.6: Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.6: Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

4.1.6 Rest of Asia Pacific

Figure 4.7: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.7: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.8: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.8: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

4.1.7 Global

Figure 4.9: Global LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.9: Global LTE, HSPA, EVDO Revs A & B and WiMAX Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.10: Global LTE Mobile Subscribers by Region (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.10: Global LTE Mobile Subscribers by 8 Key Regions (m) 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.11: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.11: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Subscribers (m) 2009 - 2014

4.2 LTE Service Revenues Forecast

4.2.1 ARPU Forecasts

Figure 4.12 Enterprise Operator-Billed ARPU by 8 Key Regions ($) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.12: Enterprise Operator-Billed ARPU by 8 Key Regions ($) 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.13 Consumer Operator-Billed ARPU by 8 Key Regions ($) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.13: Consumer Operator-Billed ARPU by 8 Key Regions ($) 2009 - 2014

4.2.2 North America

Figure 4.14: North America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.14: North America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

4.2.3 Western Europe

Figure 4.15: Western Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.15: Western Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

4.2.4 Far East & China

Figure 4.16: Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.16: Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

4.2.5 Rest of Asia Pacific

Figure 4.17: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.17: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

4.2.6 Global

Figure 4.18: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

Table 4.18: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Service Revenues ($m) 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.19: Global LTE Service Revenues ($m) by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 4.19: Global LTE Service Revenues ($m) by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

5 LTE Market Forecasts: Network Access, Devices & Chipsets

5.1 LTE Network Access Forecast

5.1.1 LTE Network Access Forecast: Enterprise Subscribers

Figure 5.1: LTE Enterprise Subscribers (m), by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets 2009 - 2014

Table 5.1: LTE Enterprise Subscribers (m), by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets 2009 - 2014

Figure 5.2: LTE Enterprise Subscribers (%) by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets - Market Segmentation Mix - 2010 - 2014

5.1.2 LTE Network Access Forecast: Consumer Subscribers

Figure 5.3: LTE Consumer Subscribers (m) by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets 2009 - 2014

Table 5.2: LTE Consumer Subscribers (m) by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets 2009 - 2014

Figure 5.4: LTE Consumer Subscribers (%) by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets - Market Segmentation Mix 2010 - 2014

5.1.3 LTE Network Access Forecast: Enterprise & Consumer Subscribers

Figure 5.5: LTE Enterprise & Consumer Subscribers (m) by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets 2009 - 2014

Table 5.3: LTE Enterprise & Consumer Subscribers (m) by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets 2009 - 2014

Figure 5.6: LTE Enterprise & Consumer Subscribers (%) by Means of Network Access: SIMs, Dongles, Cards & Embedded Chipsets Market Segmentation Mix 2010 - 2014

5.2 LTE Devices Forecast

5.2.1 Device Types

Figure 5.7: LTE Device Introduction Timeline0

5.2.2 Mobile Handsets0

Figure 5.8: Global LTE Handsets Forecast (m) 2009 - 20141

Table 5.4: Global LTE Handsets Forecast (m) 2009 - 20141

5.2.3 Laptops and Netbooks1

Figure 5.9: Global LTE Laptops and Netbooks (m) 2009 - 20141

Table 5.5: Global LTE Laptops and Netbooks (m) 2009 - 20142

5.2.4 Portable Games Consoles2

Figure 5.10: LTE Enabled Portable Games Consoles (Subscribers m) 2009 - 20142

Table 5.6: LTE Enabled Portable Games Consoles (Subscribers m) 2009 - 20143

5.2.5 Digital Cameras, MP3 Players & Other Consumer Devices3

Figure 5.11: Sony Video Service Rollout Strategy3

Figure 5.12: LTE Enabled Digital Cameras, MP3 Players & Other Consumer Devices (Subscribers m) 2009 - 20144

Table 5.7: LTE Enabled Digital Cameras, MP3 Players & Other Consumer Devices (Subscribers m) 2009 - 20144

5.2.6 Enterprise Devices5

Figure 5.13: LTE Enabled Enterprise Devices by Type (Netbooks, Laptops & Handsets) Subscribers (m) 2009 - 20145

Table 5.8: LTE Enabled Enterprise Devices Forecast by Type (Netbooks, Laptops & Handsets) Subscribers (m) 2009 - 20145

Figure 5.14: LTE Enabled Enterprise Devices Market Segmentation Mix (%) by Type (Netbooks, Laptops & Handsets) 2010 - 20145

5.2.7 Consumer Devices6

Figure 5.15: LTE Enabled Consumer Devices Forecast by Type (Netbooks, Laptops & Handsets) Subscribers (m) 2009 - 20146

Table 5.9: LTE Enabled Consumer Devices by Type (Cameras, MP3s, Consumer Devices, Netbooks, Laptops & Handsets) Subscribers (m) 2009 - 20146

Figure 5.16: LTE Enabled Consumer Devices Market Segmentation Mix (%) by Type (Cameras, MP3s, Consumer Devices, Netbooks, Laptops & Handsets) 2010 - 20147

5.2.8 Enterprise and Consumer Devices7

Figure 5.17: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer Devices by Type (Cameras, MP3s, Consumer Devices, Netbooks, Laptops, Portable Games Consoles & Handsets) Subscribers (m) 2009 - 20148

Table 5.10: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer Devices by Type (Cameras, MP3s, Consumer Devices, Netbooks, Laptops, Portable Games Consoles & Handsets) Subscribers (m) 2009 - 20148

Figure 5.18: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer Devices Market Segmentation Mix (%) by Type (Cameras, MP3s, Consumer Devices, Netbooks, Laptops, Portable Games Consoles & Handsets) 2010 - 20149

5.3 LTE Chipsets Forecast9

5.3.1 LTE Chipset Availability9

5.3.2 LTE Chipset Annual Shipment Forecast9

Figure 5.19: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipments (m. pa) by Device Type (Embedded, Cards, Dongle &Handset SIM) 2009 - 20140

Table 5.11: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipments (m. pa) by Device Type (Embedded, Cards, Dongle &Handset SIM) 2009 - 20140

Figure 5.20: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipment Forecast Mix (%) by Device Type (Embedded, Cards, Dongle &Handset SIM) 2010 - 20141

5.3.3 LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast1

Figure 5.21: LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast ($) 2010 - 20141

Table 5.12: LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast ($) 2010 - 20142

5.3.4 LTE Chipset Market Revenue Forecast2

Figure 5.22: LTE Chipset Revenues ($m. pa) by Device Type (Embedded, Cards, Dongle & Handset SIM) 2009 - 20142

Table 5.13: LTE Chipset Revenues ($m. pa) by Device Type (Embedded, Cards, Dongle & Handset SIM) 2009 - 20142

6 LTE Network Vendor Strategies

6.1 Alcatel Lucent3

6.2 Ericsson4

Figure 6.1: Ericsson Evo RAN5

Figure 6.2: Ericsson LTE Time Plans5

6.3 Fujitsu6

6.4 Huawei7

6.5 Motorola7

6.6 NEC8

6.7 Nokia Siemens Networks8

Figure 6.3 Nokia Siemens Networks LTE Solution - BTS & MME9

Figure 6.4 Nokia Siemens Networks LTE Solution - SAE Gateway & Management0

6.8 Nortel Networks1

6.9 ZTE1

Figure 6.5 ZTE OneNetwork Solution2

6.10 LSTI2

7 Mobile Broadband -Technologies Primer

7.1 WiMAX4

7.1.1 OFDM4

Figure 7.1: OFDM Spectrum5

7.2 Fixed WiMAX (802.16d-2004)5

7.3 Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005)5

Figure 7.2: Difference between OFDM and OFDMA6

Table 7.1: Scalable OFDM: Sub Carrier Permutations7

7.4 Mobile WiMAX (802.16m)7

Figure 7.3: Mobile WiMAX Timeline8

7.5 Flash OFDM9

Figure 7.4: Network Layer Architecture for Flash OFDM9

7.6 UMTS-TDD0

7.7 HSPA (High Speed Packet Access)1

7.7.1 3GPP Release 51

7.7.2 3GPP Release 61

7.7.3 3GPP Release 71

Figure 7.5: HSDPA Performance Improvements2

7.7.4 3GPP Release 8 HSPA Evolved (HSPA+)2

7.7.5 HSPA Devices3

7.8 3G LTE (Long Term Evolution)3

7.8.1 3GPP Release 8: LTE & SAE3

Figure 7.6: LTE Overview3

Figure 7.7: LTE and SAE System Architecture4

Figure 7.8: Comparison of LTE and UMTS System Architecture4

7.8.2 LTE Advanced5

7.9 CDMA 1X EVDO & UMB5

7.10 Duplexing Techniques6

7.10.1 FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing)6

Figure 7.9: Frequency Division Duplexing7

7.10.2 TDD (Time Division Duplexing)7

Figure 7.10: Time Division Duplexing7

7.11 LTE Technology Comparison7

Table 7.2: Key Mobile Broadband Technology Parameter Comparisons8

Abstract

• How much service revenue and ARPU will LTE generate by region?
• How many LTE mobile broadband subscribers will there be each year from 2009-2014?
• What will be the split between enterprise and consumer LTE subscribers?
• Which will be the prime regions for LTE deployments?
• What are the trends, drivers and constraints affecting the development of the LTE market?
• How many and what types of devices will be connected to LTE networks in 2014?

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