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Mexico Freight Transport Report Q3 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jun. 15, 2009 - 60 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe outbreak of swine flu in Mexico in late April posed a major threat to the aviation industry and toMexico’s wider transport sector. By the end of the month over 150 people were confirmed to have died ofthe illness in Mexico, and a wide range of countries issued travel advisories telling their citizens to avoidtraveling to the country. In a first indication of the scale of the reaction, news media said commercialflights to Mexico were running two-thirds or more empty, while flights out of the country remained full.A number of charter operators from North America and Europe said they had cancelled flights. USscheduled operators such as Continental Airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air andUS Airways said they would allow passengers to change flight reservations without penalties if flying toMexico. Tour companies noted that even before the outbreak, demand for holiday travel to Mexico hadbeen suffering because of reports of violence and drug wars in the country. Airport operator GrupoAeroportuario del Sureste, which operates Cancún and other regional airports, said there had been asharp decline in passenger traffic. US-based analyst Gary Chase of Barclays noted that the sharp drop intravel to Mexico would expose a number of US-based airlines to losses. The most exposed, simplybecause of the high proportion of Mexico travel in their normal routes, he said, were Alaska Airlines,Continental Airlines, US Airways, and American Airlines. BMI’s newly released Mexico Freight Transport Report notes that ahead of assessing the real impact ofswine flu, Mexico’s overall freight traffic projections were already being affected by the downturn in theUS and global economies. Looking at freight carried across all transport modes, and measured in milliontonne-km (mntkm) we are forecasting average annual growth of 2.1% in 2009-2013, a sharp reduction onthe 4.0% rate achieved in the preceding five years (2004-2008). By transport mode, we predict the bestperformers will be rail and air (despite the impact of swine flue) at 2.6% each. They will be followed byroad (2.0%), maritime freight (1.9%), pipeline throughput (1.7%) and inland waterways (1.6%). BMIconcludes that the value of the Mexican transport and communications sector will rise to US$167.6bn by2013, representing 11.5% of the country’s total GDP. BMI rates Mexico’s regulatory and competitive environments relatively highly in relation to otherregional markets. In this report, in fact, we set the country’s overall freight rating score at 45.1 (out of amaximum of 100). The transport and communications sector employed 1.89mn people, or 4.6% of thelabour force, in 2008. We see that figure rising to 1.98mn by 2013, although as a proportion of the labourforce it will remain constant at 4.6%. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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