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Published by: AMA Research
Published: Jun. 30, 2009 - 119 Pages
Table of Contents
- 1. INTRODUCTION
- 2. SUMMARY & FUTURE PROSPECTS
- 3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
- 3.1 GDP
- 3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
- 3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT
- 3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
- 3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
- 3.6 STERLING
- 3.7 POPULATION PROFILE
- 3.8 CONCLUSIONS
- 4. THE HOUSING MARKET
- 4.1 DEFINITION
- 4.2 CONSTRUCTION MARKET OVERVIEW
- 4.3 HOUSEBUILDING OVERVIEW: 1998-2008
- 4.4 HOUSEBUILDING TARGETS AND PERFORMANCE
- 4.4.1 Net Additional Dwellings
- 4.4.2 Starts
- 4.4.3 Completions
- 4.4.4 Sales
- 4.5 REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING - PRIVATE SECTOR
- 4.4.1 Starts
- 4.4.2 Completions
- 4.4.3 Sales
- 4.5 REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING - PUBLIC SECTOR
- 4.5.1 Starts
- 4.5.2 Completions
- 4.5.3 Sales
- 4.6 MIX
- 4.6.1 Mix of Housebuilding Completions
- 4.6.2 Overview of Flats Market in UK
- 5. KEY INFLUENCING FACTORS
- 5.1 GOVERNMENT REPORT SUMMARIES
- 5.2 ECO TOWNS
- 5.3 AFFORDABILITY
- 5.4 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS
- 5.4.1 Regional Variations
- 5.5 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS
- 5.6 MORTGAGE LENDING
- 5.7 HOUSING STOCK
- 5.8 LAND
- 5.8.1 Prices and Housing Density
- 5.8.2 Brownfield
- 5.8.3 Land Ownership and Supply
- 5.8.4 Households
- 5.8.5 Housing Stock
- 5.8.6 Urban Regeneration
- 5.8.7 Household Tenure
- 6. THE HOUSEBUILDERS
- 6.1 OVERALL MARKET
- 6.2 DEFINITIONS
- 6.2.1 National Housebuilders
- 6.2.2 Contractors and Housebuilders
- 6.2.3 Larger Regional Housebuilders
- 6.2.4 Smaller Regional and Local Housebuilders
- 6.2.5 Developers
- 6.3 HOUSEBUILDERS MARKET SHARE
- 6.4 NATIONAL HOUSEBUILDERS
- 6.4.1 Company Profiles
- 6.4.2 2007/08 Performance Record
- 6.5 CONSTRUCTION GROUPS AND HOUSEBUILDERS
- 6.5.1 Introduction
- 6.5.2 Company Profiles
- 6.6 DEVELOPERS
- 6.7 REGIONAL & LOCAL HOUSEBUILDERS
- 6.7.1 Company Profiles
- 7. CONSTRUCTION ISSUES
- 7.1 CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES
- 7.2 MODERN METHODS OF CONSTRUCTION
- 7.3 TYPES OF MMC
- 7.3.1 OSM Suppliers
- 7.3.2 The future of MMC
- List of charts and tables
- CHART 1: UK HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS FORECAST 1998 - 2013
- CHART 2: INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2013
- CHART 3: PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2013
- TABLE 4: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2002-2009 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES
- CHART 5: AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION 2001 CENSUS (‘000)
- CHART 6: NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS BY SECTOR - GT. BRITAIN 2002 -2008
- CHART 7: QUARTERLY VALUE OF NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS - 2008/09 (£M)
- CHART 8: HOUSING PERFORMANCE - ENGLAND 2006-08
- TABLE 9: COMPONENTS OF NET HOUSING SUPPLY, 2006/07 AND 2007/08, ENGLAND
- CHART 10: NET ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS TARGETS AND FORECASTS, ENGLAND 2000 - 2016
- TABLE 11: UK HOUSING STARTS 2000-2010 BY SECTOR (‘000)
- TABLE 12: HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 1998-2013 - UNITED KINGDOM (‘000 DWELLINGS)
- TABLE 13: NAHP OUTPUT FIGURES - 2008-09
- CHART 14: STARTS, COMPLETIONS AND SALES OF PRIVATE NEW HOUSING ENGLAND AND WALES - 2006-2008
- TABLE 15: PRIVATE HOUSE BUILDING STARTS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME
- TABLE 16: PRIVATE HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME
- TABLE 17: REGIONAL RESIDENTIAL HOUSING SALES, PRIVATE SECTOR 2006-2008
- CHART 18: PRIVATE SECTOR - STARTS, COMPLETIONS AND SALES - 2008
- TABLE 19: PUBLIC SECTOR* HOUSE BUILDING STARTS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME
- TABLE 20: PUBLIC SECTOR* HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME
- CHART 21: HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS - % MIX BY HOUSES / FLATS GB 2001-2008
- TABLE 22: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF FLATS BUILT IN UK - 2003-08 (‘000S)
- TABLE 23: PROPOSED ECO-TOWN SITES - LOCATION AND PROJECTED VOLUMES
- TABLE 24: IMPACT OF 2016 HOUSING TARGET IN ENGLAND - VOLUME MIX BY REGION AND MARKET AFFORDABILITY
- CHART 25: AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS UK 1997 - 2008 (£000)
- TABLE 26: AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS 2004-2008 BY UK REGIONS (£)
- CHART 27: NUMBER OF QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS - UK 2006-2009
- TABLE 28: AVERAGE ADVANCES BY ALL MORTGAGE LENDERS ON NEW DWELLINGS UK 1997-2008 (£’000)
- TABLE 29: STOCK OF DWELLINGS (‘000) IN THE UK 1971-2007
- TABLE 30: AVERAGE VALUATIONS OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING LAND WITH OUTLINE PLANNING PERMISSION IN ENGLAND 1998 - 2008 (£’000)
- CHART 31: LATENT BROWNFIELD LAND - WITH PLANNING PERMISSION 2001-2007 (HECTARES)
- TABLE 32: MAJOR HOUSEBUILDERS - % SCHEMES BUILT ON BROWN-FIELD SITES 2004-2007
- CHART 33: OWNERS OF PUBLIC SECTOR LAND SUITABLE FOR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT, UK
- TABLE 34: HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES/PROJECTIONS - ENGLAND 2004 - 2029 (‘000S)
- CHART 35: MIX OF STOCK OF DWELLINGS BY AGE 2007 - ENGLAND
- TABLE 36: HOUSEHOLD TENURE DISTRIBUTION IN THE UK, 1997 TO 2007
- TABLE 37: NHBC REGISTERED BUILDERS BY NUMBER OF UNITS STARTED 2004-2008
- TABLE 38: COMPANY MARKET SHARES IN HOUSEBUILDING 2008
- CHART 39: TOP 3 COMPANIES SHARE OF PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDING MARKET 1997-2008 (%)
- TABLE 40: KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS) - 2007/08
- TABLE 41: KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS - 2007/08)
- TABLE 42: KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - PERSIMMON PLC - 2007/08
- TABLE 43: KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BELLWAY PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08)
- TABLE 44: KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - REDROW GROUP (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007-08)
- TABLE 45: KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - GLADEDALE GROUP
- TABLE 46: KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - MILLER HOMES (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08)
- TABLE 47: KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BOVIS HOMES GROUP PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08)
- TABLE 48: KEY INDICTORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BERKELEY GROUP PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08)
- TABLE 49: KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - CREST NICHOLSON PLC - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08)
- TABLE 50: KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - CALA GROUP PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2007)
- TABLE 51: KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING INDUSTRY COMPARISONS 2 YEAR ANALYSIS 2007/08 (TURNOVER, PROFITS AND UNIT COMPLETIONS)
- CHART 52: CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES - CATEGORIES NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE CODE POINTS
- CHART 53: UK HOUSEBUILDING MARKET - MIX BY SECTOR AND BUILD METHOD - 2008 BY VOLUME
AbstractAMA have published the Eighth Edition of the report “Housebuilders Market - UK 2009” . There has been a major decline in the housing market in 2008 / early 2009, with housebuilding volumes in severe decline as a result of the credit crunch and falling consumer confidence. However, mid-2009 is seeing some tentative signs of recovery and this report reviews current market developments and provides a balanced overview of activity levels, highlighting variations in sector and regional performance.
Key areas in the report:
Review of Housebuilders - analysis of major housebuilders, volumes, market shares, positioning, key housebuilding indicators, recent corporate activity, changes in 2008, and forecasts of future trends.
Detailed Assessment of the Housebuilding
Market - housing starts & completions, forecast completions up to 2013, analysis by sector (private/public), mix of houses/apartments, house prices, house-moving market, urban regeneration, forecasts of future trends.
Focus on Net Additional Dwellings - major growth of conversions / change of use, analysis of confusion in relation to target of 240,000 new dwellings,
Future Prospects - outlook for 2009-10. Medium term prospects, barriers to growth.
Areas of particular interest:
Focus on major changes in housebuilding - forecasts up to 2013.
Government housing targets - confusion over targets (new building / net additional housing) - significant impact of conversions, just how realistic are Government targets??.
Growth of affordable housing.
The shift towards apartments and smaller dwellings.
Low activity levels in early 2009 - prospects for recovery - timing and scale of upturn - starts, completions, unsold stock.
Impact of Sustainable Communities Plan, Affordable Housing Programme and Code for Sustainable Homes and the growth of MMC and OSM.
Contractors included:
A & J Stephen (Holdings) Ltd , Abbey New Homes, Argent, AWG Property, Balfour Beatty, Barratt Developments Plc, Bellway Plc, Berkeley Group Plc, Bewley Homes Plc, Bloor Homes, Bovis Homes Group Plc, Britannia Developments, CALA Group, Canary Wharf Group, Connolly Homes plc Countryside Properties Plc, Crest Nicholson Plc, Croudace Group, David Payne Homes Ltd, Durkan Ltd, Elan Homes, Fairview New Homes, Galliford Try Plc, Gladedale Group, Goldcrest Land plc Haslam Homes, Hopkins Homes, Inspace Partnerships (Willmott Dixon), Jelson Homes, Keepmoat Group, Kendrick Homes, Kier Group, Land Securities, Lang O’Rourke, Lend Lease, MacTaggart & Mickel, McCarthy & Stone Plc, McInerney Group, MJ Gleeson, Morgan Sindall, Morris Group, Norfolk Homes, Oakdene Homes Plc, Persimmon Plc, Quintain, Raven Property Group, Redrow Group, Scotia Homes, Shepherd Homes, Stewart Milne, Strata Homes, Taylor Wimpey Plc, Telford Homes The Miller Group Ltd, Tulloch Homes, Wain Homes, Weston Homes Plc
Key areas of coverage in the report include:-
HOUSE-BUILDERS
Overall market size, number of builders, analysis of key changes in recent years.
Analysis of market shares of leading housebuilders, comparisons of changing shares in 2008/09.
Major review of leading national housebuilders - analysis of key indicators for UK housebuilding (completions, turnover, pre-tax profits and average selling price), recent trends, current market position.
Rationalisation of industry structure, mergers & acquisitions, review of leading commercial developers in housebuilding, impact of new entrants, future prospects etc.
Review of the leading regional and local housebuilders, recent corporate activity. Analysis covering turnover, pre-tax profit, completions etc.
HOUSE-BUILDING MARKET
Overview of construction sector, output levels by sector and impact on housebuilding, future trends.
Current market conditions, overview of the market during 2008/09.
Analysis by sector - Private, public, self build - volumes, changing market mix, factors influencing the market, future trends, value of housebuilding output by sector.
New housing starts and completions -trends since 2000, review of market volatility in recent years, forecasts up to 2013, analysis of completions for public/ private sectors by region, impact of affordable housing market.
Focus on growth of flats - rapid growth in volumes, share changes 2000-2008, future prospects (market saturation?)
Market structure - stock of buildings in UK, ownership structure, housing stock by age of dwelling, average property prices, residential property transactions, land banks, increasing influence of mixed-use developments on “brown-field” sites.
Factors influencing the housing market - the Sustainable Communities Plan and the Affordable Housing Programme, review of planning system, household projections, net immigration, etc.
Overview of factors influencing use of MMC - Product review of OSM / MMC -, timber, steel frames, concrete - market volumes, mix (private / affordable) and trends etc
FORECASTS - SHORTER & LONGER TERM PROSPECTS
Forecasts of completions 2009-2013 - market volatility, short term prospects for 2009/10 - length and severity of downturn? Long term prospects for sector - rate of market recovery from downturn.
Review of key factors influencing prospects - Population growth, age of housing stock, changing household formations, affordable housing, planning system, ‘Eco towns’ etc.
Impact of downturn, role of Government / affordable housing.
Net Additional Housing - review of housing targets in England, review of confusion over new housebuilding and net additional housing (including conversions and change of use ) - comparison of forecasts against targets - scale of shortfall?
Factors influencing timing and scale of recovery - completions, unsold stock, starts.
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