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Romania Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 9, 2009 - 56 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Romania Tourism Industry SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Romania Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Romania’s Tourism Industry, 2006-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Table: Romania’s Travel Industry, 2006-2013 (‘000 people, unless otherwise stated)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Quarterly Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
Table: Structure Of Romania’s Accommodation Market, 2002-2005
Table: Key Players In The Romanian Hotel Industry, 2007 (US$mn)
Accommodation Developments
Infrastructure
Business Environment
Regional Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Rating
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Romania’s Security Risk Ratings
Currency Forecast
Table: BMI’s Romania Currency Forecasts
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2006-2011
Table: Emerging Markets’ Growth, 2007-2013
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
Company Profiles
Tarom
SIF Transilvania
Unita Turism Holding
Austrian Airlines
Hilton
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings -Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Tourism Overview

Complete data for 2008 shows foreign visitor arrivals totalled nearly 8.9mn, a very healthy increase ofabout 15% year-on-year (y-o-y), but somewhat lower than in the previous year. Moreover, a downwardtrend in growth was evident in the latter part of the year. Almost 63% of visitor arrivals were from the EUmember states. Of the latter, Hungary accounted for the largest proportion of arrivals (35% of the total),followed by Bulgaria (20%), Germany (9.4%), Italy (7.8%) and Poland (5%). Although latest data are forjust one month, figures for January 2009 suggest that a sharp weakening in the number of foreign visitorsis on the cards, with the number of arrivals down almost 8% compared with the same month in 2008.

Hospitality

Official figures for 2008 represent a poor performance for the hospitality sector, particularly for foreignvisitors. Data shows that tourism nights in all establishments that offered accommodation amounted to20.7mn (foreign and domestic tourists), up just 0.6% compared with a year earlier. Foreign touriststhough recorded a 6.3% y-o-y decline in overnight stays to about 3.4mn (16.2% of the total). At the sametime, foreign visitor arrivals in collective accommodation establishments declined by 5.5% y-o-y toaround 1.5mn (nearly 21% of total arrivals). Hotel occupancy rates were just over 41%, which wasslightly weaker than in 2007. The most recent data are for January 2009 and show a significantdeterioration in the hospitality sector, with tourism nights (foreign and domestic tourists) in allaccommodation establishments down 16% y-o-y, of which foreign tourist nights fell nearly 22%compared with January 2008. Over the same period, foreign visitor arrivals in collective accommodationestablishments declined more than 18% y-o-y.

Forecast Scenario

Having highlighted that the risks were on the downside, BMI now expects a much weaker scenario forforeign visitor arrivals in 2009 and we now anticipate a decline of at least 10% y-o-y. This rests on recentgloomy data for arrivals in December and January, and further downward revisions to real GDP growth inthe eurozone - the major source of arrivals in Romania - along with our revised forecast of a deeperrecession in Hungary in 2009 and only modest recovery beyond 2011. A slight pick up in foreign visitorarrivals, though, is anticipated next year.

Tarom

In 2008, for the national flag carrier, Tarom, reported operating revenue of US$404mn, up 10% y-o-y,but overall it recorded a loss of US$28mn (following a profit in 2007), chiefly due to increased fuel costs.The airline also recorded a significant slowdown in passenger growth, up a modest 5% y-o-y to about1.8mn (after 32% y-o-y growth in 2007). Moreover, in November and December 2008, Taromexperienced relatively sharp falls in passenger traffic y-o-y.

Wizz Air

Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air aims to carry 1.7mn passengers to an from Romania in 2009 andbecome the market leader on the Romanian low-cost market this summer. This is after carrying close to900,000 passengers to and from Romania in 2008, a substantial increase of 148% y-o-y.

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