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United States Business Forecast Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 1, 2009 - 57 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
A ‘Great Recession’, But Not A Depression
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
A Republican Comeback In 2010?
President Barack Obama’s honeymoon period is coming to an end, and the challenges he faces are formidable.
Table: US Politica l Overview
Foreign Policy
Obama’s Challenges And Opportunities In Asia
The Asia-Pacific region offers President Barack Obama considerable challenges, but also major opportunities.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Is The Worst Over?
Our core view that H109 would see the end of the worst of the ongoing recession appears to be playing out.
tab le: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Balance Of Payments
Swinging Closer To Balance
The US current account deficit is set to come down rapidly over the coming years, as consumers tighten their belts.
Fiscal Policy
Stimulus Comes At A Big Price
According to BMI’s projections, the US federal budget deficit could exceed 14% of GDP in 2009-10, and come in
double-digits in 2010-11, as Washington scrambles to use fiscal ammunition to cushion the economic downturn
and tax revenues dry up.
Monetary Policy
Uncharted Territory For Fed Policy
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep nominal interest rates near zero through the first half of 2010 at least, as
it attempts to reinflate the economy.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The US Economy To 2018
Despite Challenges, Still The World Leader
Despite concerns over the sustainability of its economic superpower status, BMI believes that the US’s
importance in the global economy is unlikely to wane much over the ten year forecast period to 2018.
tab le: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Special Report
The Outlook For Global Banking
TABLE: LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS, Selected States
TABLE: LOAN GROWTH (% CHG Y-O-Y), Selected States
Business Environment Rating Outlook
TABLE: COMMERCIAL BANKING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT RATINGS, SELECTED STATES
Chapter 5: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS
Institutions
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS
Infrastructure
Market Orientation
TABLE: FDI, DEVELOPED STATES
TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Operational Risk
Chapter 6: Key Sectors
Automotives
tab le: US Autos Sector - Historica l Data & Forecasts
Chapter 7: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS - LONG-TERM FORECASTS
Table: Developed States , Real GDP Growth Forecast
Table: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST
Table: Commodities
TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH

Abstract

The US is in the midst of its worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. However,the magnitude of the fiscal and monetary stimulus seen over the past year will help ensure thatthe most likely scenario for the US economy is a ‘Great Recession’, and not a full-blown depression.That said, the economic recovery is going to be weak and prolonged, as US householdsdeleverage their balance sheets and business investment retrenches in accordance with reducedaggregate demand. We are forecasting a 3.3% real GDP contraction in 2009, followed by growthof just 1.2% in 2010.

The parlous state of the economy means that President Barack Obama has his work cut out forhim in the first year of his administration. While the Democratic Party’s grip on both houses ofCongress will give him leeway to enact new policies, there are already signs of dissent within theranks, and it will be impossible for him to please both sides of the aisle. The Republican Partywill face a steep uphill climb as the 2010 legislative midterm elections approach, but continuedeconomic strife would put the party in better shape for a comeback in 2012.

The biggest risk to our core outlook is the potential for a ‘double-dip’ recession, in which a recoveryin economic activity in H209 proves short-lived and the economy takes a second leg down in2010-11. The risks of this scenario unfolding have risen over the past few months, in our view.For now, we are content with our 2010 real GDP growth forecast of 1.2%, which reflects our coreview of an ‘L-shaped’ recession - one in which the contraction in output is sharp, but the recoveryis tepid. It will take until at least H211 before real GDP growth returns to trend.

The biggest threat to the country’s business environment standing in the short-term is the potentialraft of new regulations and quasi-nationalisations arising from the financial sector meltdown.Government involvement in key sectors, such as autos, is also a concern. Looking beyond thecurrent downturn, however, the US business environment continues to possess a myriad of basicstrengths, including a competitive labour force and a legal system that protects investor rights andis conducive to conducting business. The Obama administration’s ambition to rebuild the US’screaky physical infrastructure is also welcome, but it could be many years before the impact ofany plans will be felt.

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