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Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: May. 26, 2009 - 63 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- India Pharmaceutical Industry SWOT
- India Political SWOT
- India Economic SWOT
- India Business Environment SWOT
- India’s Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rankings For Q209
- Limits of Potential Returns
- Risks to Realisation of Returns
- India - Market Summary
- Regulatory Environment
- Table: Responsibilities Of India’s Department Of Pharmaceuticals
- Pharmaceutical Advertising
- Pharmacovigilance
- Recent Regulatory Developments
- IP Regime
- Table: History Of The Indian Patent System
- Patent Disputes
- Counterfeit Medicines
- Table: Anti-Counterfeiting Guidelines From The Organisation Of Pharmaceutical Producers Of India (OPPI)
- Pricing And Reimbursement
- Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments
- Industry Trends and Developments
- Epidemiology
- Healthcare Sector
- Healthcare Funding
- Healthcare Insurance
- Table: Health Insurance In India - Key Facts
- Company Developments
- Retail Pharmacy Sector
- Table: Major Players In India’s Retail Pharmacy Sector
- Recent Pharmaceutical Retail Developments
- Foreign Co-Operation
- Clinical Trials
- Recent Developments in the Clinical Trials Industry
- Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
- Biotechnology Sector
- Traditional Medicines
- Medical Devices
- Regulation of Medical Devices
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Table: India - Drug Expenditure Indicators, 2003-2013
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Table: India - Health Expenditure Indicators, 2003-2013 (INRmn unless otherwise stated)
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: India - Economic Activity, 2005-2013
- The Global Finanical Crisis and India’s Pharmaceutical Industry
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: India - Prescription Market Indicators, 2004-2013 (INRmn unless otherwise stated)
- Patented Product Market Forecast
- Table: India - Patented Market Indicators, 2004-2013
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: India - Generics Market Indicators, 2004-2013
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: India - OTC Market Indicators, 2004-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: India - Pharmaceutical Trade, 2004-2013 (US$mn)
- Medical Device Market Forecast
- Table: India’s Medical Device Market, 2003-2013 (US$bn unless otherwise stated)
- Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
- Table: India - Healthcare Data Indicators, 2004-2013
- Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
- Competitive Landscape
- Company Profiles
- Leading Multinational Manufacturers
- Pfizer
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- Novartis
- Sanofi-Aventis
- Merck & Co
- Eli Lilly
- Leading Indigenous Manufacturers
- Ranbaxy Laboratories
- Cipla
- Dr Reddy’s Laboratories
- Aurobindo Pharmaceutical
- Venus Remedies
- Granules India
- Nicholas Piramal India
- Zydus Cadila
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
- Ratings Overview
- Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Components
- Sources
AbstractOn the back of a deteriorating external and domestic economic outlook, combined with weak Q408 realGDP growth data, we now forecast that the South African economy will contract by 0.3% in 2009,followed by recovery to growth of 2.9% in 2010.
Our latest research trip to South Africa in mid-February confirmed our increasingly bearish outlook onthe country’s economy. Before our visit, we had lowered our South African real GDP growth to just 0.2%in 2009. While acknowledging the importance of private investment in the run-up to the 2010 FIFAWorld Cup, we highlighted that slumping real private consumption and contracting real export growthwill weigh heavily on economic activity over the coming year.
Thanks to a relatively stable banking sector and a lower domestic private debt burden than westerneconomies, South Africa is unlikely to see the same levels of economic contraction as currentlyexperienced in the US, Euroland or Asia. That said, aside from analysts sharing their concerns aboutSouth Africa’s economy, during our trip we distinctly got the impression that deteriorating externalconditions and ailing domestic demand present severe challenges for South African businesses, regardlessof whether they are banks, mining companies or manufacturing firms. In fact, combined with the latestreal GDP figures, we now believe that the economy is most likely to experience a full-year recession in2009, with our new real GDP growth forecast standing at -0.3%.
In sub-Saharan Africa, we profile 19 companies. These are AIG, AGF, Allianz, Cardif, GlobalAlliance, Guardrisk, HDI-Gerling, Hollard, Liberty Group, Metropolitan, Momentum Group,Munich Re, Mutual & Federal, Nedgroup, Old Mutual, OUTsurance, Sanlam, Santam, and ZurichSouth Africa.
Over the course of 2008, estimated total premiums in South Africa rose by 13% to ZAR259,087mn. Nonlifepremiums rose by 15% to ZAR61,612mn while life premiums rose by 13% to ZAR197,475mn.Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that annual non-life premiums will grow byZAR58,340mn, while annual life premiums should grow by ZAR43,437mn.
Growth in non-life premiums should be driven by the general growth of nominal GDP plus a rise in nonlifepenetration from the current level of 2.36% to 3.50%.
Growth in life premiums should be driven by the change in the overall population and a rise in lifedensity, from US$549.25 to US$630.00 per capita.
BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating for South Africa is 67.1.
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