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Croatia Insurance Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 26, 2009 - 85 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe latest GDP data release for Croatia shows the economy continuing to slow during the third quarter of2008, further confirming that the economic downtrend is now firmly in place and will continue to playout through 2009. The deterioration in trade dynamics, unwinding of domestic demand, and contractionin external credit availability constricted growth dynamics during the third quarter, with the economyonly mustering up growth of 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 3.4% the previous quarter, andmarking a multiyear low.Given the severity of the slowdown in the third quarter, and our belief that both domestic and externaldemand conditions will get worse before they get better, we have revised down our economic growthforecasts for 2009 and 2010. Specifically, whereas we were previously targeting growth of 2.1% in 2009,we now expect to see a contraction of 1.5%, coinciding with the deepening of the eurozone recession(with growth of -1.6% currently pencilled in). Moreover, given our belief that international credit marketswill still take time to thaw from their current state of flux, and that risky emerging markets such asCroatia will come further down the priority list of international lending, we do not expect to see a swiftreturn to pre-credit crunch levels of economic growth. As such, we forecast a mild recovery to 1.3%growth in 2010, ticking up further to 3.2% in 2011. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we profile 22 multi-national insurance companies. In alphabeticalorder, these are AEGON, AIG, Allianz, Aviva, AXA, Cardif, ERGO, Eureko, Fortis, Generali,GRAWE, Groupama, HDI-Gerling, HSBC Insurance, ING, MetLife, Prudential Financial, QBE,RSA, UNIQA, Vienna Insurance Group and Zurich Financial Services.We also discuss the regional presence of Belgium’s KBC and Austria’s Erste Bank through a number ofinsurance subsidiaries and explain the importance of purely domestic firms to each of the variouscountries. Over the course of 2008, actual total premiums in Croatia rose by 11% to HRK9,673mn. Non-lifepremiums rose by 9% to HRK7,132mn, while life premiums rose by 14% to HRK2,541mn. Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that annual non-life premiums will growHRK6,191mn, while life premiums should grow by HRK3,562mn. Growth in non-life premiums should be driven by the general growth of nominal GDP plus a rise in nonlifepenetration from the current level of 2.32% to 3.00%. Growth in life premiums should be driven by the change in the overall population and a rise in lifedensity from US$110.13 to US$250.00 per capita. BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating for Croatia is 54.7. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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