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Poland Insurance Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 21, 2009 - 85 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractA flash estimate provided by the Central Statistical Office shows Polish economic growth slowing to3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) during Q408 from 4.8% the previous quarter. We expect growth to continueslowing through 2009, with the economy likely to dip into recession during H209. Despite thedeterioration in Poland's macroeconomic fundamentals, we nonetheless believe that the economy willemerge as the regional outperformer, especially compared with heavily trade dependent Czech Republicand post fiscal crisis Hungary, which will both dive deep into recession this year.According to preliminary data provided by the Central Statistical Office, the Polish economy postedgrowth of around 3.0% during the final quarter of 2008, bringing the full-year figure down to 5.4%, froma bumper 6.6% the previous year. While growth has continued to slow throughout the year, it has notundergone an outright collapse during H208 as has been the case in some of the more precariouseconomies in emerging Europe - particularly Ukraine and the Baltics. That said, we hold to our view thatgrowth momentum will continue to slow during 2009 as the eurozone heads deeper into recession, anddomestic demand increasingly strains under the weight of widespread deleveraging, tight global liquidityand debt consolidation in the private sector. Moreover, while the first and second quarters of 2009 maystill see positive growth, especially given that Poland's economic cycle continues to lag the eurozone, webelieve that the economy will be hard pressed to avoid a recession during the second half of the year. Thisunderscores our projection for a 0.4% contraction in 2009. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we profile 22 multi-national insurance companies. In alphabeticalorder, these are AEGON, AIG, Allianz, Aviva, AXA, Cardif, ERGO, Eureko, Fortis, Generali,GRAWE, Groupama, HDI-Gerling, HSBC Insurance, ING, MetLife, Prudential Financial, QBE,RSA, UNIQA, Vienna Insurance Group and Zurich Financial Services. We also discuss the regionalpresence of Belgium’s KBC and Austria’s Erste Bank through a number of insurance subsidiaries andexplain the importance, for each of the various countries, of purely domestic firms. Over the course of 2008, actual total premiums in Poland rose by 17% to PLN59,353mn. Non-lifepremiums rose by 11% to PLN20,089mn, while life premiums rose by 21% to PLN39,264mn.Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that annual non-life premiums will grow byPLN11,733mn, while annual life premiums should grow by PLN3,489mn. Growth in non-life premiums should be driven by the general growth of nominal GDP plus a rise in nonlifepenetration from the current level of 1.54% to 2.00% Growth in life premiums should be driven by the change in the overall population and a rise in lifedensity from US$274.44 to US$420.00 per capita. BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating is 62.8. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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