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Utilities in the downturn: strategic responses in B2B energy markets

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Apr. 21, 2009 - 24 Pages


Table of Contents


DATAMONITOR VIEW
CATALYST
SUMMARY
ANALYSIS
B2B demand for gas and power is contracting across Europe
The global economy is contracting; for the first time in decades we are witnessing a reduction in global trade
The European economy is in recession but the contraction is expected to ease from 2010
Analysis of energy consumption by sector against GDP composition by country can add additional insight into energy consumption outlook
Utilities will not be immune to the recession; energy consumption does respond to contractions and expansions in the economy
Utilities operating in B2B markets are likely to find the recession more difficult to manage than those focused on B2C
Liquidity contraction will present M&A opportunities for the more creditworthy market players
Utilities have employed different tactics for raising funds as a means to finance debt
Utilities must augment their view of market segmentation to tailor their response according to specific risks
Utilities essentially face four potential demand-side risks resulting from the economic downturn
Utilities can assess clients according to volume risk and credit risk
According to these risk metrics, Datamonitor scores the economic sectors on vulnerability in a downturn
Most sectors in the European economy will contract in 2009 but rebound in 2010
Analysis of energy consumption by sector reveals that several of the largest consumers carry a high degree of volume risk
Europe's steel sector is set to contract sharply through 2009, with some signs of possible recovery in early 2010
The struggling construction sector serves as a useful bell-weather for related industries and concurrently for energy demand
Europe's automotive industry is struggling with the credit crunch, but remains fundamentally viable, unlike manufacturers in the US
The retail sector is struggling with reduced credit availability and low consumer confidence
Over-capacity in the UK retail market means that the contraction will be even sharper, producing credit risk in this sector
Different sections of the retail sector will suffer, as over supply and falling demand force business out of the market
Manufacturing has suffered an extremely sharp downturn, but the rate of contraction is already slowing
Utilities are not powerless to act; a range of weapons can be deployed to minimize the threats to revenue arising from B2B demand contraction
Utilities can deploy their response according to client-specific risks
Supply of credit insurance has tightened as firms have sought to protect themselves from bad debt by effectively out-sourcing risk management
Margining is appropriate in sectors with many small firms whose output does not determine energy demand, such as retail
Credit scoring is generally of limited value, but can help in targeting stable clients when margining revenues
Although turbulent, the B2B market offers safe havens and opportunities
State institutions and regulated private industry represent a safe haven for utilities during the downturn, but account for little overall consumption
Remedies should be deployed according to the risks that a client entails under the current market conditions
Utilities should shape their portfolio according to market size, and the volume and credit risk that each sector represents
The nature of the credit crisis means that industrial output should not continue to suffer beyond 2010; energy demand will pick up albeit slowly
Large utilities are in a position to make the recession work for them through cheap acquisitions and investment in infrastructure
APPENDIX
Further reading
Ask the analyst
Datamonitor consulting
Disclaimer
List of Figures
Figure 1: EU27 macroeconomic Indicators, 2005-10
Figure 2: Eastern Europe will see a steep decline in energy demand
Figure 3: There is a weak but positive correlation between energy consumption and economic growth
Figure 4: B2B energy markets are more income elastic than B2C
Figure 5: Utilities' Revenue Threats
Figure 6: TypeFigTitleHere
Figure 7: UK energy consumption by economic sector
Figure 8: EU steel output year-on-year percentage change, 2004-10
Figure 9: EU construction output year-on-year percentage change, 2004-10
Figure 10: EU automotive industry output year-on-year percentage change, 2004-10
Figure 11: Consumer confidence index 2008-09
Figure 12: Average annual growth rate in retail volumes across four decades
Figure 13: Individual Retail Sub-Sector Outlooks
Figure 14: The UK retail sector is set to shrink by £1.7 billion in 2009
Figure 15: EU manufacturing contracted sharply in H2 2008
Figure 16: Risk Solution Matrix
Figure 17: Sector Profiles, Risks and Responses
Figure 18: The traditional view of segmentation cannot respond effectively to recession
Figure 19: Relative risk and size of sector by energy consumption
Figure 20: Average EU carbon steel price indexed to February 2007

Abstract

Introduction

What started as a mortgage market crisis has quickly developed into what may the most severe recession in a generation. As economies contract, utilities will see industrial demand weaken. Attempts to mitigate the effects through tariff reductions are self-defeating in the long run. Utilities are better served by identifying specific risks within their portfolio and tailoring a bespoke response.

Scope
  • An overview of how the recession is affecting utilities and which of the EU states are seeing the steepest decline in their gas & power demand.
  • A risk analysis model to determine which types of clients are expected to reduce energy demand and the manner in which that reduction will take place.
  • Analysis of individual sectors and performance forecasts; with an overview of how each sector is expected to perform.
  • A set of strategies to mitigate the effects of the downturn on their revenue streams - what utilties should look for when shaping their portfolio.
Highlights

B2B gas and power demand is contracting across Europe. For the first time since WW2 we are witnessing a global contraction in trade and production. The impact this is having on B2B energy demand varies across the EU. So far Eastern Europe is seeing the sharpest contraction, on account of high energy intensity levels and reliance on heavy industry.

Utilities operating in B2B markets face four essential demand side risks as a result of the recession. These can be segmented into Volume and Credit risks, revealing not only the scale of the problem but the nature in which demand contraction is likely to manifest itself.

Utilities are not powerless to act; a range of weapons can be deployed to minimise the threats to revenue arising from B2B demand contraction. Utilities must augment their view of risk profiling to cater for the specific challenegs their clients are facing.

Reasons to Purchase
  • Understand the implications of the downturn for the European gas and power industry.
  • Develop innovative client profiling and risk management techniques.
  • Plan your strategy to not only survive the recession but to exploit the range of opportunities which the downturn presents.
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