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Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.
Published: Mar. 1, 2009
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Mintel’s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
- The macro-economic changes
- The significance of these changes
- Presentation of data
- What next?
- Methodology
- Differences
- Annuities
- Figure 1: Forecast of new pension annuity business (volume), 2003-13
- Figure 2: Forecast of new pension annuity business (volume), 2003-13
- Figure 3: Forecast of new pension annuity business (value), 2003-13
- Figure 4: Forecast of new pension annuity business (value), 2003-13
- Figure 5: Forecast of new income drawdown business (volume) 2003-13
- Figure 6: Forecast of new income drawdown business (volume) 2003-13
- Figure 7: Forecast of new income drawdown business (value) 2003-13
- Figure 8: Forecast of new income drawdown business (value) 2003-13
- Factors incorporated
- Life Insurance and Protection
- Figure 9: Value forecast of new individual regular life insurance premiums, (term assurance) 2003-13
- Figure 10: Value forecast of new individual regular life insurance premiums, (term assurance) 2003-13
- Figure 11: Value forecast of new individual regular life insurance premiums, (whole-of-life) 2003-13
- Figure 12: Value forecast of new individual regular life insurance premiums, (whole-of-life) 2003-13
- Factors used in the forecast
- Occupational Pensions
- Figure 13: Forecast of new insurance administered occupational pension business, regular premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 14: Forecast of new insurance administered occupational pension business, regular premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 15: Forecast of new insurance administered occupational pension business, single premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 16: Forecast of new insurance administered occupational pension business, single premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 17: Forecast of new GPP business, regular premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 18: Forecast of new GPP business, regular premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 19: Forecast of new GPP business, single premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 20: Forecast of new GPP business, single premiums, 2002-12
- Factors used in the forecast
- Personal and Stakeholder Pensions
- Figure 21: Forecast of new APE* premiums into personal and stakeholder pensions (all products), 2003-13
- Figure 22: Forecast of new APE* premiums into personal and stakeholder pensions, (all products) 2003-13
- Factors used in the forecast
AbstractMintel's re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
In less than nine months, the UK has changed from booming, overheated economy to an economy in crisis. In a fast-developing environment, up-to-date market and consumer data is more critical than ever.
It takes time for changes in macro-economic variables to have an impact on consumer spending. But it is now clear that consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs have changed dramatically in the past six months. As a result, Mintel’s market size estimates and forecasts based on different consumer expectations warrant revision. For the first time in its near-40 years of delivering market and consumer insights, Mintel has conducted an exhaustive mid-cycle re-evaluation of consumer market forecasts published in 2007 & 2008.
The macro-economic changes
Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crisis upon crisis has hit the UK financial services sector with several key players having to be rescued from the threat of insolvency. The consequences for the UK economy have been dramatic as the government and markets have reacted to unfolding events. Some of the falls include:
- interest rates from 5% to 0.5% (Oct. ’08 to Mar ‘09)
- the sterling/dollar exchange rate from $2 to the pound to $1.45 (Jun. ‘08 to Feb ’09)
- the sterling/euro exchange rate from 1.25 euros to the pound to a low of 1.01 euros (most of ’08 to Jan. ’09)
- the retail price index (RPI) from 5% to 0.1% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09)
- the consumer price index (CPI) from over 5% to 3% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09 - less dramatic than RPI primarily as it excludes mortgage interest payments and housing depreciation).
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