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The Impact of the Credit Crunch on European Retail

Published by: Verdict Research Ltd

Published: Feb. 18, 2009 - 67 Pages


Table of Contents


CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key Findings
Main Conclusions
CHAPTER 2 EUROPEAN MARKET - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Main Messages
GDP Top 10
GDP Top 10
GDP Top 10 Forecasts - Bleak Outlook
GDP: Midranking Eight
GDP Midranking Eight - Growth Erosion
GDP: Smaller Nine
GDP Smaller Nine - Growth Erosion Bad For Baltics
Consumer Expenditure
Structure
Inflation Falls Rapidly At End-2008
HICP Annual Averages
Savings Rate To Increase Sharply
Euro Interest Rate Turns Downward
Other Interest Rates
Unemployment - Lagging Indicator
CHAPTER 3 FOCUS ON CEE - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Challenging market conditions
CHAPTER 4 DEFLATION THE MAJOR THREAT
Threat of Deflation in Wider Economy
Food Prices Turn Downward
CHAPTER 5 EUROPEAN MARKET - RETAIL SPENDING
Latest Expenditure Trends
Selected Major Cases
Germany
France
UK
Spain
Netherlands
CEE
CHAPTER 6 GROCERY
Six Victims of Circumstance
Decline in Organics
Non-food
M&A Activity Virtually Stops
Format Diversification on Back Burner
Expansion Abroad Cut Off
Sale and Leaseback Deals Dry Up
CHAPTER 7 HOME RELATED SECTORS
DIY Relentless Concentration on Value
Electricals Party Over
CHAPTER 8 OUTLOOK
Outlook
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY
Definitions
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Monthly retail growth rates y-o-y Jun-Nov 2008
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: GDP: Top 10 countries in European Union 2008e
Figure 2: GDP change % forecast for Top 10 EU countries 2008 & 2009
Figure 3: GDP: Midsize Eight (€100bn+) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e
Figure 4: GDP change % forecast for Midsize Eight (€100bn+) of other 17 EU countries 2008 & 2009
Figure 5: GDP: Smaller Nine (€100bn-) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e
Figure 6: GDP change % forecast for Smaller Nine (€100bn-) of other 17 EU countries 2008 & 2009
Figure 7: Consumer expenditure of Top 10 EU countries 2007
Figure 8: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of €18bn+ 2007
Figure 9: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of €18bn- 2007
Figure 10: Consumer expenditure as % of GDP 2007
Figure 11: HICP trend - Top Nine EU27 markets monthly % change Oct-Nov 2008 on 2007
Figure 12: HICP trend - Midranking EU27 markets monthly % change Oct-Nov 2008 on 2007
Figure 13: HICP trend - Bottom ranking EU27 markets monthly % change Oct-Nov 2008 on 2007
Figure 14: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - annual average growth of Top 10 EU countries 2007 & 2008
Figure 15: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - countries among other 17 in EU with annual averages over 4.5% 2007 & 2008
Figure 16: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - countries among other 17 in EU with annual averages under 4.5% 2007 & 2008
Figure 17: Gross household saving % of gross household disposable income (latest data) 2007
Figure 18: ECB interest rates 2005-2009
Figure 19: HICP annual average price inflation in eurozone vs EU 2005-2008
Figure 20: Central bank annual averages for key reference interest rates 2008
Figure 21: EU countries seasonal unemployment November 2008
Figure 22: EU HICP - monthly food price change y-o-y Jan 2007-Oct 2008
Figure 23: Oil spot price FOB weighted by estimated export volume ($/ barrel) - monthly Jan-Nov 2008
Figure 24: European retailers sales performance Christmas 2008
Figure 25: Six victims of circumstance 2009
Figure 26: Impact on non-food in grocers 2009
Figure 27: Quarterly house price trends in Estonia, Ireland, Spain and the UK 2006-2008

Abstract

Introduction

Verdict Research: The impact of the credit crunch on European retail analyses the state of the retail market across 27 EU member states, focusing on Grocery, DIY and Electricals. The brief explores the dynamics, growth trends and Christmas trading in France, Germany, Spain, the UK and CEE. The research also provides strategic recommendations for retailers.

Scope
  • Macro economic data on 27 markets, structural indicators and forecasts for each of the 27 EU countries.
  • Analysis of the major threats in the market, price developments and the immediate outlook for Central Eastern Europe.
  • Detailed chapters on five core European markets, with recent developments and future outlook.
  • Appraisal of strategic issues in European Grocery, DIY and Electricals.
Highlights

The EU is entering an age of frugality. Most consumers in the EU have reached the peak of private indebtedness. Unemployment rates are rising, consumer confidence is dipping and consumer credit becomes increasingly hard to find. Less debt financed consumption has the consequence of the EU now entering a phase of contracting economic activity.

Consumers will become increasingly cautious about outgoings and will think twice about where and on what they spend their money. In such an environment, retailers focused on lower price and better value products are likely to prosper. Those slow to react and adapt to changing consumer demand will struggle in the new era of frugality.

Retailers should now exploit weak currencies if possible for sourcing as well as expansion. Indeed volatile currency fluctuations could become one of the most important things to watch going forward and hedging will move into even sharper focus. Moreover domestically all retailers should look at ramping up and improving their private label offer.

Reasons to Purchase
  • Learn how difficult market conditions are driving competition among retailers and what the outlook for EU retail will be in the short to mid-term.
  • Understand how evolving consumer behaviour is forcing retailers to develop new product, sales and marketing strategies in a profoundly changed market.
  • Identify the remaining success stories and growth prospects of the key markets and competitors and benchmark their performance.


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