Mobile Music Videos, Streamed, Full Tracks, Ringbacks, Ringtones & Downturn Analysis

Published by: Juniper Research Limited

Published: Feb. 23, 2009 - 157 Pages

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Introduction

Types of Mobile Music

The Market for Mobile Music Services

Figure ES1: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table ES1: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Figure ES2: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by Product 2007-2013.

Table ES2: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by Product 2007-2013.

Key Hurdles to the Adoption of Mobile Music Services

Table ES3: Hurdles to the Adoption of Mobile Music Services

Recommendations

Recommendations for Operators

Recommendations for Vendors

Recommendations for Aggregators

Recommendations for Publishers

1. Mobile Music Market Development

1.1 The Opportunity for Mobile Music

1.1.1 DRM Issues are Being Resolved

1.1.2 Digital is the Preferred Mode of Purchase

1.1.3 Ubiquity

1.1.4 Proven Demand for Personal Mobile Music Enjoyment

1.1.5 Low Level of Penetration of Full Track Music Services

1.1.6 Convergent Services are Increasingly Desirable

1.1.7 Data Charges Are Being Reduced

1.1.8 Technological Advances - Networks

1.1.9 Technological Advances - Handsets

1.1.10 The iPhone Has Arrived

1.1.11 Vendors are Embedding Music Content within the Handset

1.1.12 Growth of Social Networking is Encouraging Service Adoption

1.2 Mobile Music Definition

1.3 Ringtones

1.3.1 Realtones

i. KDDI’s Chaku-uta

ii. Pan European Operator Services

1.3.2 Video Ringtones

1.3.3 Karaoke Ringtones

1.4 Ringback Tones

1.5 Full Track Downloads

1.5.1 Historical Background

i. Factors Influencing The Introduction of Full Track Downloads

ii. Operators Partnering with Major Entertainment Brands

1.5.2 Delivery of Full Track Mobile Music

i. Streaming

ii. Downloading

a. MMF Guidelines on Downloading Music Content

- Authentication

- Subscription

- Payment

- Transfer of Rights

- Music Selection and Transfer

- Verification and Activation of the Music

iii. Sideloading Music

iv. Embedded Music

1.6 Music Video Download Service

1.7 Value Chain/Value Web of Mobile Music Services

Figure 1.1 Traditional Mobile Music Value Chain

Figure 1.2: Mobile Music Value Chain

1.8 Business Models

1.8.1 Pay-Per-Download

Table 1.1: Polyphonic Ringtone, Realtone and Full track Download Prices ($), Selected

Operators and Markets

1.8.2 Subscription/Rental Models

1.8.3 Mobile Advertising

i. Advertising in Mobile Content

ii. Advertising in Mobile Music

a. Deployments of Ad-Funded Mobile Music Services

b. Prospects for Ad-funded Mobile Music Services

iii. Advertising - A Mobile SWOT Analysis

a. Strengths

b. Weaknesses

c. Opportunities

d. Threats

1.9 Billing for Mobile Music Services

1.9.1 Billing Models

i. SMS-based Billing

a. Standard SMS Payment Model

b. Premium SMS Payment Model

ii. SMS MT Reverse Billing

iii. Premium Rate SMS (PRSMS)

iv. Premium Rate MMS (PRMMS)

v. WAP Billing

a. Payforit

vi. Prepaid and Postpaid Billing

2. Forecasts

2.1 Forecast Definitions and Methodology

2.1.1 Forecast Definitions

2.1.2 Forecast Methodology

Figure: 2.1 Forecast Methodology.

2.2 Ringtone Market Forecasts

2.2.1 Ringtone Market Characteristics

2.2.2 Ringtone Users

Table 2.1: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013

Figure 2.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.2.3 Ringtone Traffic

Figure 2.3 Average Number of Ringtones Downloaded per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.3: Average Number of Ringtones Downloaded per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Figure 2.4: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year (m) by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2103

Table 2.4: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year (m) by 8 Key Regions 20072013.

2.2.4 Mobile Ringtone Revenues

Table 2.5: Average Price ($) Paid Per Ringtone by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Figure 2.5: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.2.5 Mobile Ringtone Monthly ARPU

Figure 2.6: ARPU ($) for Mobile Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.7: ARPU ($) for Mobile Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.3 Ringback Tone Market

2.3.1 Ringback Tone Users

Table 2.8: Mobile Users (%) Who Use Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013

Figure 2.7: Mobile Users (m) Who Use Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.9: Mobile Users (m) Who Use Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.3.2 Ringback Tone Usage Levels

Figure 2.8: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.10: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Figure 2.9: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.11: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.3.3 Ringback Tone Revenues

Table 2.12: Average Price ($) Paid Per Monthly Ringback Tone Subscription by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Figure 2.10: Total Revenues ($m) from Ringback Tone Subscriptions by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.13: Total Revenues ($m) from Ringback Tone Subscriptions by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.3.4 Ringback Tone Monthly ARPU

Figure 2.11: Monthly ARPU ($) for Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.14: Monthly ARPU ($) for Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.4 OTA Full Track Music Downloads Market

2.4.1 OTA Full Track Music Download Users

Table 2.15: Mobile Users (%) Who Download OTA Full Track Music by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013

Figure 2.12: Mobile Users (m) Who Download OTA Full Track Music by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.16: Mobile Users (m) Who Download OTA Full Track Music by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.4.2 OTA Full Track Download Traffic

Figure 2.13: Average Number of OTA Full Track Music Downloads per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.17: Average Number of OTA Full Track Music Downloads per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Figure 2.14: Total Number (m) of OTA Full Track Music Downloads per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.18: Total Number (m) of OTA Full Track Music Downloads per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.4.3 OTA Full Track Music Download Revenues

Table 2.19: Average Price Paid ($) Per OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Figure 2.15: Total Revenues ($m) from OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.20: Total Revenues ($m) from OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

2.4.4 OTA Full Track Music Download Monthly ARPU

Figure 2.16: ARPU ($) for OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2013

Table 2.21: ARPU ($) for OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2013

2.5 Subscription-based Rental and Streamed Services

2.5.1 Subscription-based Music Service Users

Table 2.22: Mobile Users (%) Who Subscribe to Subscription/Streamed Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013

Figure 2.17: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Subscription/Streamed Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013

Table 2.23: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Subscription/Streamed Services by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Figure 2.18: Total Users (m) of Subscription Services split by Subscriptions/Streamed

Services and Paid-for-Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013

Table 2.24: Total Users (m) of Subscription Services split by Subscriptions/Streamed Services and Paid-for-Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

2.5.2 Number of Monthly Full Track/Streamed Music Subscriptions

Figure 2.19: Average Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Table 2.25: Average Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Figure 2.20: Total Number (m) of Monthly Music Subscription Services per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Table 2.26: Total Number (m) of Monthly Music Subscriptions/Services per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

2.5.3 Mobile Music Subscription Service Revenues

Table 2.27: Average Price Paid ($) Per Monthly Music Subscription by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2013.

Figure 2.21: Total Revenues ($m) from Subscriptions to Mobile Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Table 2.28: Total Revenues ($m) from Subscriptions to Mobile Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

2.5.4 Mobile Music Subscription Service Monthly ARPU

Figure 2.22: ARPU ($) for Subscriptions to Mobile Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2013.

Table 2.29: ARPU ($) for Subscriptions to Mobile Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2013.

2.6 Music Video Market

2.6.1 Music Video Users

Table 2.30: Mobile Users (%) Who Subscribe to Music Videos by 8 Key Regions 2006- 2013

Figure 2.23: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Music Videos by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2013.

Table 2.31: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Music Videos by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2013.

2.6.2 Number of Music Video Downloads

Figure 2.24: Average Number of Music Video Downloads per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Table 2.32: Average Number of Music Video Downloads per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Figure 2.25: Total Number (m) of Mobile Music Video Downloads per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Table 2.33: Total Number (m) of Mobile Music Video Downloads per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

2.6.3 Mobile Music Video Revenues

Table 2.34: Average Price Paid ($) Per Music Video Download by 8 Key Regions, 2007- 2013.

Figure 2.26: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Video Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Table 2.35: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Video Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

2.6.4 Mobile Music Video Monthly ARPU

Figure 2.27: ARPU ($) for Mobile Music Video Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Table 2.36: ARPU ($) for Subscriptions to Mobile Music Video Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

2.7 Total Market for Mobile Music

2.7.1 End-User Generated Revenues

Figure 2.28: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones & Realtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by Product 2007-2013.

Table 2.37: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones & Realtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/StreamedMusic Services and Music Videos) by Product 2007-2013.

2.7.2 Advertising Revenues: Best and Worst Case Scenarios

Figure 2.29: Total Revenues ($m) from Advertising in Mobile Music. Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.

Table 2.38: Total Revenues ($m) from Advertising in Mobile Music. Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2013.

Figure 2.30: Mobile Music Adspend ($m) Market Forecast Scenario Comparison (Best Case,Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2008-2013

Table 2.39: Mobile Music Adspend ($m) Market Forecast Scenario Comparison (Best Case,Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2008-2013

Figure 2.31: Mobile Music Adspend Market Growth Rate Comparison (%) (Best Case;Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013

Table 2.40: Mobile Music Adspend Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (%) (BestCase; Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013

3. Recommendations

3.1 Recommendations for Operators

3.2 Recommendations for Vendors

3.3 Recommendations for Aggregators

3.4 Recommendations for Publishers

4. Hurdles

4.1 Macro Economic Issues

4.2 The User Interface

4.2.1 Difficulty in Discovering Services and Content

i. Awareness is Key

ii. Increased Awareness During 2008

4.2.2 Difficulty in Accessing Services and Content

1. Historical Time to Content

ii. Improvements in Time to Content in 2008

4.2.3 Difficulty in Navigating Services and Content

4.2.4 Difficulty in Utilising Multiple Applications Simultaneously

4.3 Handset Form, Capabilities

4.3.1 Form Factor

4.3.2 Capacity

4.3.3 Battery Life

4.4 Network Speed and Coverage

4.4.1 Opportunities Provided by Upgrade to 3.5G and Beyond

4.5 Service Pricing

4.5.1 Download Prices

Table 4.1: Cost of Ringtones, Full Tracks and Ringtone/Full Track Premiums of Selected Operators

i. How Price Points Have Been Sustained

4.5.2 Subscription Services

4.6 Cost of Data Services

Table 4.2: UK Operator Data Prices ($), 2008

4.7 User Confidence

4.7.1 Ringtones

4.7.2 Full track Download

4.8 Rights Management

4.9 Industry Structure

4.10 Localisation

5. Regulation and Controls

5.1 Regulations for Mobile Music

5.1.1 Anti-piracy Regulations

i. International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI)

ii. Australasian Performing Rights Association (APRA)

iii. Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA)

a. Music Compensation Agreement with NSAI & SGA

iv. Case Study: TRIPS Consultation

5.1.2 Copyrights Acts

i. Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988

ii. US Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA)

iii. European Commission - Collective Cross-border Management of Copyright and Related Rights for Legitimate Online Music Services (2005/737/EC)

5.1.3 Digital Rights Management

i. Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)

a. OMA-DRM

ii. Case Study: The French Anti-piracy Law 2006

5.2 Other Regulations - Mobile Content

5.2.1 Self Regulation - The Operators’ Approach

i. Independent Mobile Classification Body (IMCB)

ii. Internet Content Rating Association (ICRA)

5.2.2 PhonepayPlus

i. Significant Fines Levied by PhonepayPlus to December 2008

ii. Review of Mobile Premium Services

5.2.3 OFCOM

5.2.4 CTIA

5.2.5 Pan-European Legislation

i. Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy Directive 95/46/EC

ii. The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC)

iii. The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC)

iv. The E-money Directive

6. Players in Mobile Music Services

6.1 Content Providers: the Major Labels

6.1.1 EMI Music

6.1.2 Sony BMG

6.1.3 Universal Music Group

i. D2C Offerings

6.1.4 Warner Music Group

6.2 Selected Operators

6.2.1 ‘3’ UK

6.2.2 Bharti Airtel

6.2.3 China Mobile

i. Company Background

ii. Products and Services

6.2.4 KDDI

6.2.5 O2 (Telefonica Europe)

6.2.6 SK Telecom

6.2.7 Sprint Nextel

6.2.8 Telenor

6.2.9 T-Mobile

6.2.10 Verizon Wireless

6.2.11 Vodafone

6.3 Aggregators

6.3.1 Buongiorno/Blinko!

i. Company Background

ii. Products and Services

6.3.2 Hurray Holding

6.3.3 Jamba/Jamster

6.3.4 Myxer

6.4 Vendors

6.4.1 Apple

i. Company Background

a. Recent Financial Performance

Table 6.1: Apple Revenue and Net Income Growth 2003-2008 ($m, FYE September 30) 130

ii. Products and Services

a. iPhone

Figure 6.1: Apple iPhone

b. iPhone 3G

iii. Partners and Clients

iv. Corporate Strategy

6.4.2 Motorola

i. Handsets: SLVRs, ROKRs and RAZRs

ii. iRadio

iii. MotoMusic

6.4.3 Nokia

i. Company Background

ii. Corporate Structure

iii. Products and Services

a. Nokia Nseries

Figure 6.2: Nokia N79 and N85

ii. Nokia XpressMusic

Figure 6.3: Nokia 5800 Xpress Music

iii. Visual Radio

iv. Nokia Music Store

v. Comes With Music

6.4.4 Sony Ericsson

i. Sony Ericsson Walkman Range

Figure 6.4: Sony Ericsson W902 Walkman

ii. PlayNow plus

6.5 Applications Providers

6.5.1 LiveWire Mobile (Groove Mobile)

6.5.2 Musiwave

6.5.3 Napster

i. Company Background

ii. Products and Services

6.5.4 Omnifone

i. Company Background

ii. Products and Services

6.5.5 Oxy Systems (phling!)

i. Company Background

ii. Products and Services

6.5.6 RealNetworks

i. Company Background

ii. Products and Services

a. RBTs and Related Services

b. Streamed Services

6.5.7 Shazam

i. Company Background

6.6 Billing Providers

6.6.1 Bango

i. Company Background

ii. Products and Services

Figure 6.5: Co-existence of On and Off-Portal Models

a. Bango Analytics

6.6.2 mBlox

i. Company Background

Abstract

This 5th Edition mobile music report provides updated forecasts for each of segments of the mobile music market; mobile music video, ringtones, ringback tones, mobile music full-track downloads and streamed music services, broken down by 8 key regions. Vitally this report also includes an assessment of the likely impact of the global economic downturn on the mobile music market.

For each subsector within mobile music, the report provides datapoints for; mobile music user numbers, average and total number of mobile music services downloaded, average and total price paid for mobile music services, ARPU numbers for mobile music services, and scenario-based forecasts for mobile music advertising revenues.

As well as including profiles of the key players within the mobile music services market including major record labels, operators, aggregators, handset vendors and applications providers, this in-depth mobile music presentation includes a vital analysis of the collapse of the ringtone market and a detailed discussion of the various music delivery business models.

Key questions the report answers:

• What strategies should operators, vendors and aggregators employ to maximise their respective returns in the mobile music sector?
• What are the prospects for the rental music market?
• Are there further opportunities for growth in the ringtone market?
• To what extent are current music content retail prices sustainable?
• What impact has 3G had on the mobile music market?
• What are the major hurdles to greater adoption of mobile music?
• How has the mobile music value chain developed?
• Who are the major players in the mobile music market?

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