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Commercial Insight: Cardiovascular and metabolic market overview Diabetes to the fore as generics hit primary care markets

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Feb. 2, 2009


Table of Contents


ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE

About the cardiovascular pharmaceutical analysis team

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Scope of the analysis

Datamonitor insight into the cardiovascular market

Related reports

Upcoming reports

CHAPTER 2 MARKET OVERVIEW AND DYNAMICS

Seven major markets

Regional markets

US

Japan

5EU

Cardiovascular and metabolic markets by disease area

Seven major markets

Regional markets

US

Japan

5EU

Disease focus by mechanism of action

Diabetes

US

Japan

5EU

Dyslipidemia

US

Japan

5EU

Hypertension

US

Japan

5EU

Thrombosis

US

Japan

5EU

CHAPTER 3 MARKET FORECASTS

Seven major markets

Regional markets

US

Japan

5EU

Cardiovascular and metabolic market by disease area

Seven major markets

Regional markets

US

Japan

5EU

Disease focus by mechanism of action

Diabetes

US

Japan

5EU

Dyslipidemia

US

Japan

5EU

Hypertension

US

Japan

5EU

Thrombosis

US

Japan

5EU

CHAPTER 4 MARKET ANALYSIS

Leading cardiovascular and metabolic brands

Leading cardiovascular and metabolic active agents

Company portfolio assessment

The top 10 cardiovascular and metabolic companies, 2007

Pfizer

Sanofi-Aventis

Novartis

Merck & Co

Bristol-Myers Squibb

Takeda

GlaxoSmithKline

AstraZeneca

Novo Nordisk

Schering-Plough

Geographical distribution

Company vulnerability

The forecast top 10 cardiovascular and metabolic companies, 2004-2017

APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

Data definitions, limitations and assumptions

Standard units

Japanese market data

Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends

Forecasts

Forecast methodology

Datamonitor reports

APPENDIX B -MARKET FORECAST DATA

Seven major markets

Regional markets

US

Japan

5EU

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

UK

APPENDIX C

Report methodology

About Datamonitor

About Datamonitor Healthcare

Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Top 25 cardiovascular and metabolic brands in the seven major markets, 2004-2017

Table 2: Top 25 cardiovascular and metabolic active agents in the seven major markets, 2004-2017

Table 3: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the seven major markets ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part I)

Table 4: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the seven major markets ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part II)

Table 5: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the seven major markets ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part III)

Table 6: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the seven major markets ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part IV)

Table 7: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the seven major markets ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part V)

Table 8: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the US ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part I)

Table 9: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the US ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part II)

Table 10: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the Japan ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part I)

Table 11: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the Japan ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part II)

Table 12: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the 5EU ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part I)

Table 13: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the 5EU ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part II)

Table 14: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the 5EU ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part III)

Table 15: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in France ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part I)

Table 16: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in France ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part II)

Table 17: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in Germany ($ million), 2007-2017

Table 18: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in Italy ($ million), 2007-2017

Table 19: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in Spain ($ million), 2007-2017

Table 20: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the UK ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part I)

Table 21: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the UK ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part II)

Table 22: Sales forecast for the major cardiovascular and metabolic brands and active agents in the UK ($ million), 2007-2017 (Part III)

List of Figures

Figure 1: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales ($) and standard units (SU) sold in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 2: Total cardiovascular sales and sales growth in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 3: Geographical distribution of cardiovascular sales in the seven major markets by value, 2004-07

Figure 4: Geographical distribution of cardiovascular units sold (SU) in the seven major markets by volume, 2004-07

Figure 5: Total cardiovascular sales and sales growth in the US, 2004-07

Figure 6: Total cardiovascular sales and sales growth in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 7: Total cardiovascular sales and sales growth in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 8: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in the seven major markets by disease area, 2007

Figure 9: Cardiovascular and metabolic standard units (SU) sold in the seven major markets by disease area, 2007

Figure 10: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in the US market by value ($ billion) by disease area, 2004-07

Figure 11: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in Japan by value ($ billion) by disease area, 2004-07

Figure 12: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in the 5EU markets by value ($ billion) by disease area, 2004-07

Figure 13: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in France by value ($ billion) by disease area, 2004-07

Figure 14: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in Germany by value ($ billion) by disease area, 2004-07

Figure 15: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in Italy by value ($ billion) by disease area, 2004-07

Figure 16: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in Spain by value ($ billion) by disease area, 2004-07

Figure 17: Cardiovascular and metabolic sales in the UK by value ($ billion) by disease area, 2004-07

Figure 18: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the diabetes market in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 19: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the diabetes market in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 20: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the diabetes market in the US, 2004-07

Figure 21: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the diabetes market in the US, 2004-07

Figure 22: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the diabetes market in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 23: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the diabetes market in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 24: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the diabetes market in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 25: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the diabetes market in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 26: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the dyslipidemia market in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 27: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the dyslipidemia market in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 28: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the dyslipidemia market in the US, 2004-07

Figure 29: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the dyslipidemia market in the US, 2004-07

Figure 30: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the dyslipidemia market in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 31: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the dyslipidemia market in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 32: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the dyslipidemia market in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 33: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the dyslipidemia market in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 34: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the hypertension market in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 35: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the hypertension market in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 36: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the hypertension market in the US, 2004-07

Figure 37: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the hypertension market in the US, 2004-07

Figure 38: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the hypertension market in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 39: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the hypertension market in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 40: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the hypertension market in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 41: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the hypertension market in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 42: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the antithrombotics market in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 43: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the antithrombotics market in the seven major markets, 2004-07

Figure 44: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the antithrombotics market in the US, 2004-07

Figure 45: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the antithrombotics market in the US, 2004-07

Figure 46: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the antithrombotics market in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 47: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the antithrombotics market in Japan, 2004-07

Figure 48: Sales ($) of the leading mechanisms of action in the antithrombotics market in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 49: Use (SU sold) of the leading mechanisms of action in the antithrombotics market in the 5EU, 2004-07

Figure 50: Forecast cardiovascular and metabolic sales ($) and standard units (SU) sold in the seven major markets, 2007-2017

Figure 51: Forecast total cardiovascular and metabolic sales and sales growth in the seven major markets, 2007-2017

Figure 52: Geographical distribution of forecast cardiovascular and metabolic sales ($) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017


Abstract

Introduction

Datamonitor expects antidiabetic therapies to emerge as the biggest revenue earner in the cardiovascular and metabolic markets by 2017. A large and diverse development pipeline will provide a number of new blockbuster drugs but the heavy genericization of the hypertension and dyslipidemia primary care markets will lead to the overall market only growing by 0.9% in the seven major markets.

Scope
  • A detailed clinical and commercial assessment of all key cardiovascular and metabolic therapy areas.
  • An analysis of the portfolios of top 10 leading cardiovascular and metabolic companies.
  • Sales based sales forecasts for all key cardiovascular and metabolic active agents in the seven major markets to 2017.
Highlights

The cardiovascular and metabolic market is rapidly maturing with the total market revenues forecast to grow only by 0.9% CAGR between 2007 and 2017. This is despite growth in the use of cardiovascular and metabolic drugs forecast to grow by 3% CAGR over the same time period.

Market growth will be driven by strong antithrombotics and antidiabetic pipelines where significant clinical unmet needs remain. The antidiabetic is forecast to generate close to $11 billion in 2017 with the antithrombotic pipeline generating $10 billion in 2017.

Antidiabetic therapies are forecast to be become the highest revenue generators in 2017 as the primary care markets of hypertension and dyslipidemia become almost completely genericized. 50% of the top 10 brands in 2017 are forecast to be antidiabetics.

Reasons to Purchase
  • Qualify and quantify the Top 10 cardiovascular therapy brands across the seven major pharmaceutical markets from 2007 to 2017.
  • Understand key drivers and predict the future performance of leading products.
  • Assess the remaining market opportunities, where established therapies and other developmental compounds fail to address key unmet clinical needs.


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