Canadian Payments Forecast, 2009 : Market Research Report

Canadian Payments Forecast, 2009

Published by: Technology Strategies International

Published: Jan. 19, 2009 - 112 Pages

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION: Objectives of the Study; Research Methodology; A Note on Forecasts; Currency; Acknowledgements
PAYMENTS IN CANADA: Introduction; Cash Payments; Cheques; Debit Card Payments; Cross-border Debit; Credit Card Payments; Card Issuance and Circulation; Card Volumes; Cardholder Acquisition; Prepaid and Secured Credit Cards; Merchant Acceptance of Credit Cards; Online Payments and Transfers; Online Purchases; Online Payments; Mobile and Contactless Payments; MasterCard PayPass; Visa PayWave; Other Mobile Payments Initiatives in Canada; Canadian Consumer Payments in Perspective
KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CANADIAN PAYMENTS INDUSTRY: Introduction; Fraud; Credit Card Fraud; Debit Card Fraud; Cheque Fraud; Counterfeiting; Duality; Impact of Non-Duality; Impact of Duality; Duality and EMV; Interchange and the Merchant Discount Rate; Interac as a ‘for-profit’ Company
PROSPECTS FOR CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN CANADA: Introduction; The Canadian Economy; The Outlook for Gross Domestic Product; Personal Expenditure on Goods and Services; Retail Sales in Canada; Payments Forecasts; ABM Equipment and Transaction Forecast; Cash Payments Forecast; Cheque Payments Forecast; Debit Card Payments Forecast; Credit Card Payments Forecast; Cross-Border Debit Forecast; Online Payments Forecast; Mobile and Contactless Payments Forecast; Payments Forecasts in Context
List of Figures: Canadian Banknotes and Coin in Circulation (2000 - 2008); Number of ABM’s in Canada, by Ownership (2000 - 2008); Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s In Canada (2000 - 2008); Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2000 - 2008); Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 - 2008); Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 - 2008); Number of Interac Direct Payment Users (1992 - 2008); Annual Volume and Value of Interac Direct Payment Transaction (1992 - 2008); Debit Card Payment Transactions by Sector (2007); Share of Number of Transactions at Retail Outlets (1996 and 2007); Share of Transaction Values at retail Outlets (1996 and 2007); Canadian Travelers to the USA vs. USD/CAD Exchange Rate (1972 - 2008); Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travelers to the USA (2004 - 2008); Number of Credit Cards in Circulation in Canada (2008); Number of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (1977 - 2008); Number of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2000 - 2008); VISA/MasterCard Transaction Volumes and Net Retail Volume (1977 - 2008); Relative Shares of VISA and MasterCard In Canada (2008); Comparison of VISA and MasterCard Credit Card Activity in Canada (2008); Credit Card Mail Solicitations to US Households (1990 - 2008); Canadian Credit Card Loans (1998 - 2008); Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting VISA or MasterCard (1996 - 2008); Transfer and Bill Payments by Delivery Channel (2002 - 2008); Share of Transfer and Bill Payment by Delivery Channel (2002 - 2008); Total Canadian Online Sales (2000 - 2008); Selected Online Activities of Home Internet Users in Canada (2005 and 2007); Online Canadian Consumer Ordering Patterns (2005 and 2007); Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2001 - 2008); Number of Interac Online Merchants by Category; Mobile Phone Handset Configurations for Near Field Communications; Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions; Flowing through the ACSS - Value (1990 - 2007); Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions; Flowing through the ACSS - Volume (1990 - 2007); Share of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type in Canada (2001 - 2008); Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2001 - 2008); Consumer Preferences for Payment Method; Credit Card Fraud in Canada (1983 - 2008); Credit Card Fraud as a Percentage of Retail and; Cash Advance Dollar Volumes (1983 - 2008); Breakdown of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2007); Credit and Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002 - 2008); Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Detected (1996 - 2008); Annual Change in GDP and Personal Expenditure (1962 - 2008); Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP (2009 - 2013); Canadian Consumer Confidence Index; Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP and PCE (2009 - 2013); Components of Personal Consumer Expenditure (2008); US Consumer Spending Cutbacks in Recessions; Canadian Non-Auto Retail Sales by Sector, 2008; Average Annual Growth in Retail Sales by Sector (2001 - 2008); Projected Growth in Canadian Retail Sales (2009); Forecast Number of ABM’s in Canada (2009 - 2013); Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s in Canada (2009 - 2013); Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction volumes in Canada (2009 - 2013); Forecast Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the; ACSS in Canada (2009 - 2013); Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the; ACSS in Canada (2009 - 2013); Forecast Number of Debit Cards in Circulation and Number of IDP users (2009 - 2013); Forecast Number of IDP Terminals (2009 - 2013); Forecast Annual Volume and Value of Interac Direct Payment Transactions (2009 - 2013); Forecast Number of Credit Cards in Circulation and; Number of Active Cards (2009 - 2013); Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting VISA or MasterCard (2009 - 2013); Forecast Annual Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2009 - 2013); Forecast Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travelers to the USA (2009 - 2013); Forecast Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2009 - 2013); Forecast Credit Card and Alternative Payments for Online Purchases (2009 - 2013); Forecast Contactless Payment Cards and Terminals (2009 - 2013); Forecast Share of Personal Consumption Expenditure; by Payment Type in Canada (2009 - 2013); Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2009 - 2013); Forecast CAGR for Different Payment Instruments (2008 - 2013); Forecast Growth for Key Payment Segments (CAGR: 2008 - 2013)
List of Tables: Debit Card Payment by Sector (2007); Shares of Debit Card Payments by Sector (2007); Terminal Intensity and Transaction Volume and Value Averages by Sector (2007); Change in Debit Card Locations, Terminal, Transactions and Values from 2005 to 2007; Primary Issuers of Visa and MasterCard in Canada (2008); Canadian Tire Financial Services Credit Card Portfolio vs.; VISA/MasterCard Universe (2008); Credit Card Loans of the Major Credit Card Issuers in Canada (2008); Secured Credit Card Issuers and Offers in Canada; Prepaid Credit Card Issuers in Canada; Differences between Reloadable and Non-Reloadable; Prepaid Credit Cards Offers in Canada; Online Orders in Canada (2005 and 2007); Characteristics of Selected Alternative Online Payment Mechanisms; Global PayPass Statistics (Q3 2008); Anchor PayPass Merchants in Canada; VISA payWave Statistics (Q2 2008)

Abstract

The Canadian payments industry is evolving rapidly. Electronic payments dominate, and there is increasing substitution between different payment channels. Cash is still used extensively, as are cheques, but debit and credit cards have had meteoric successes in Canada, with both still averaging double digit growth rates in transaction volumes over the past five years. And within the debit and credit card payment spaces new segments have emerged, either based on consumer behaviour—for example, cross-border transactions and online payments—or based on new technologies such as contactless and mobile payments.

Market summary

In 2009, cutbacks in consumer expenditure will see the growth in the value and volume of debit and credit card transactions decrease compared with previous years.
Credit card payments will be hit the hardest by the recession, but by 2013 they will account for 38% of personal expenditure on consumer goods and services, approximately double the share forecast for debit card payments.
Cross border payments will grow by 70% per year over the next five years with new players expected to make an entry into the Canadian market.
Contactless payments based on credit cards represents the highest growth segment of consumer payments over the next five years, exhibiting triple-digit percentage growth and encroaching on areas currently dominated by cash and debit cards. Card issuers will use the EMV implementation card reissue cycle to issue cards with contactless payment functionality.
Growth in alternative online payments will be approximately double the growth in online credit card payments over the next five years.

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Canadian Payments Forecast, 2009

Table of Contents

Abstract