The Future of European Discounters 2008 : Market Research Report

The Future of European Discounters 2008

Published: Nov. 28, 2008 - 228 Pages

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Key Findings; Main Conclusions
CHAPTER 2 EUROPEAN MARKET - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: Key Findings (based on Eurostat data 07/08); Main Messages; GDP; Consumer Expenditure; Inflation; Interest Rates; Employment
CHAPTER 3 EUROPEAN MARKET - DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW: Key Findings; Main Messages; Trends; Growth by Country; Age Breakdown; Consequences for Retailers; Households; Urban Population
CHAPTER 4 EUROPEAN MARKET - RETAIL SPENDING: Expenditure; Growth; Per Capita; Retail Share
CHAPTER 5 DISCOUNT RETAILING IN THE EU: Definition; Sales; Space; Sales Densities; Store Numbers; Store Size; France; Germany; Italy; Spain; UK
CHAPTER 6 STRATEGIC ISSUES: State We Are In; Inflation; Brief History of Grocery Discounters; Discount Evolution in Germany; Stretching Into Non-food; Strategy Differences; Hard vs Soft; Pace of Expansion; Financial Success; Opportunities for the discounters; Redefining Store Concepts; Lidl Express, Edmonton, UK; Value of Property; Convenience Trend; Green Retailing; Internationalisation; International Presence; When the Model Doesn’t Work; Lidl Fails in Baltics; Lidl Fails in Norway; Lidl Fails Employees; Non-food a Common Problem Area; Other Grocery Retailers React …; Strategy 1: Format Diversification; Strategy 2: Acquire a Discounter - Break-up of Plus; Strategy 3: Ramp Up Private Label; Strategy 4: Start a Price War; … Where Strategies Failed; 1: Running Own Discount Operation; 2: Private Label Range Innovation, Extension and Relaunch; 3: Price War
CHAPTER 7 COMPANY COMPARISONS: Overview
CHAPTER 8 ALDI: Company Overview; Recent Key Developments; Sales Performance; Benchmarks; Store Portfolio; Outlook
CHAPTER 9 BIEDRONKA: Company Overview; Recent Key Developments; Sales Performance; Benchmarks; Store Portfolio; Outlook
CHAPTER 10 DIA: Company Overview; Recent Key Developments; Sales Performance; Benchmarks; Store Portfolio; Outlook
CHAPTER 11 LEADER PRICE/FRANPRIX: Company Overview; Recent Key Developments; Sales Performance; Benchmarks; Store Portfolio; Outlook
CHAPTER 12 NETTO: Company Overview; Recent Key Developments; Sales Performance; Benchmarks; Store Portfolio; Outlook
CHAPTER 13 PENNY: Company Overview; Recent Key Developments; Sales Performance; Benchmarks; Store Portfolio; Outlook
CHAPTER 14 SCHWARZ GRUPPE: Company Overview; Recent Key Developments; Benchmarks; Sales Performance; Store Portfolio; Outlook
CHAPTER 15 GLOSSARY: Definitions
LIST OF TABLES: Table 1: Consequences of population change for retailers 2008-2018; Table 2: EU Top Six retail expenditure 2002-2007e; Table 3: EU Top Six retail expenditure growth 2002-2007; Table 4: EU retail expenditure (€30.0bn+) 2002-2007e; Table 5: EU retail expenditure (€30.0bn+) growth 2002-2007e; Table 6: EU retail expenditure (€30.0bn-) 2002-2007e; Table 7: EU retail expenditure (€30.0bn-) growth 2002-2007e; Table 8: EU Discounter sales by country 2003-2008e; Table 9: EU Discounter sales growth y-o-y by country 2003-08e; Table 10: % share of EU discounter sales of total grocery by country 2003 & 2008e; Table 11: Discounters selling space by country 2003-2008e; Table 12: Grocery discounters space growth by country 2003-2008; Table 13: Discounter store numbers by country 2003-2008e; Table 14: EU discounters store number growth by country 2003-2008e; Table 15: Grocery discounting in France 2003-2008e; Table 16: Discounting in Germany 2003-2008e; Table 17: Grocery discounting in Italy 2003-2008e; Table 18: Grocery discounting in Spain 2003-2008e; Table 19: Grocery discounting in the UK 2003-2008e; Table 20: Leading European discounters sales 2007; Table 21: Leading European discounters market shares 2007; Table 22: Leading European discounters sales densities 2006 & 2007; Table 23: Aldi company overview 2008; Table 24: Aldi trading record 2002-2007e; Table 25: Aldi benchmarks 2006 & 2007; Table 26: Aldi store estate 2008e; Table 27: Aldi selling space and store numbers 2006 & 2007; Table 28: Biedronka company overview 2008; Table 29: Biedronka trading record 2002-2008e; Table 30: Biedronka benchmarks 2006 & 2007; Table 31: Biedronka store estate and selling space 2006 & 2007; Table 32: Biedronka store and selling space development 2002-2007; Table 33: Dia company overview 2008; Table 34: Dia consolidated sales including VAT by country 2002-2007; Table 35: Dia benchmarks 2006 & 2007; Table 36: Dia European store portfolio 2007; Table 37: Dia consolidated European store and selling space development 2002-2007; Table 38: Leader Price/Franprix company overview 2008; Table 39: Leader Price/Franprix trading record 2002-2007; Table 40: Leader Price/Franprix benchmarks 2006 & 2007; Table 41: Leader Price/Franprix store portfolio 2002-2007; Table 42: Leader Price/ Franprix selling space development 2002-2007; Table 43: Netto company overview 2008; Table 44: Netto turnover record 2002-2008e; Table 45: Netto benchmarks 2006 & 2007e; Table 46: Netto store portfolio 2006 & 2007e; Table 47: Netto selling space and store numbers 2006 & 2007; Table 48: Penny company overview 2008; Table 49: Penny turnover record 2002-2007; Table 50: Penny benchmarks 2006 & 2007e; Table 51: Penny store portfolio 2003-2007; Table 52: Penny selling space and store numbers 2006 & 2007; Table 53: Schwarz Gruppe company overview 2008; Table 54: Schwarz Gruppe benchmarks 2006 & 2007; Table 55: Schwarz Gruppe estimated trading record 2002-2007; Table 56: Schwarz Gruppe store portfolio 2006 & 2007; Table 57: Schwarz Gruppe selling space and store numbers 2006 & 2007
LIST OF FIGURES: Figure 1: GDP: Top 10 countries in European Union 2007; Figure 2: GDP growth forecast of Top 10 EU countries 2008 & 2009e; Figure 3: GDP: Other 17 countries in European Union (€100bn+) 2007; Figure 4: GDP growth forecast of other 17 European Union countries (€100bn+) 2008 & 2009; Figure 5: GDP: Other 17 countries in European Union (€100bn-) 2007; Figure 6: GDP growth forecast of other 17 European Union countries (€100bn-) 2008 & 2009; Figure 7: Consumer expenditure of Top 10 EU countries 2007; Figure 8: Consumer expenditure: Other 17 countries in EU (€50bn+) 2007; Figure 9: Consumer expenditure: Other 17 countries in EU (€50bn-) 2007; Figure 10: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - growth of Top 10 EU countries 2006 & 2007; Figure 11: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - growth of other 17 EU countries (3.0%+) 2006 & 2007; Figure 12: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - growth of other 17 EU countries (3.0%-) 2006 & 2007; Figure 13: Central bank interest rates, official average lending rates 2007; Figure 14: ECB interest rates 2002-2008; Figure 15: Total unemployment rates of Top 10 EU countries 2002 & 2007; Figure 16: Total unemployment rates of other 17 EU countries (6.0%+) 2002 & 2007; Figure 17: Total unemployment rates of other 17 EU countries (6.0%-) 2002 & 2007; Figure 18: 10-year trends in total EU population growth 2008-2048e; Figure 19: EU population totals (000) by country 2008; Figure 20: Forecast population growth (%) for the Top 10 countries in EU by GDP - 2018 on 2008; Figure 21: Forecast population growth (%) for other EU countries 2018 on 2008; Figure 22: Comparison of EU age groups 2008 & 2018; Figure 23: Top 10 EU countries by GDP - household numbers 2005; Figure 24: Other EU countries household numbers 2005; Figure 25: Top 10 EU countries by GDP - average household size in 2005; Figure 26: Other EU countries average household size in 2005; Figure 27: Comparison of EU countries by urban population % - Top 10 EU countries by GDP - 2007; Figure 28: Comparison of EU countries by urban population % - Other EU countries - 2007; Figure 29: EU27 retail spend and change % 2002-2007; Figure 30: Ten CEE new member states retail spend and change % 2002-2007; Figure 31: Growth in EU 27 retail spend by country 2007 on 2002; Figure 32: EU per capita retail spend 2002-2007; Figure 33: EU27 per capita retail spend by country 2007; Figure 34: EU retail spend as % of total consumer expenditure 2002 & 2007; Figure 35: EU Discounters sales per capita 2008; Figure 36: Discounters five-year sales growth by country 2003-08; Figure 37: Grocery discounters sales densities (€ per sq m) 2008; Figure 38: Discounters sales densities % change 2008 on 2003; Figure 39: Grocery discounters average store size by country 2008; Figure 40: El Corte Inglés low-cost range Aliada; Figure 41: Big Four main users shopping at discounters 2007 & 2008; Figure 42: Annual inflation (%) in EU 27, August 2008; Figure 43: Success factors for Aldi 2007; Figure 44: Tedi, D�sseldorf 2007; Figure 45: Aldi Nord, Denmark 2008; Figure 46: Lidl Express, Edmonton, 2008; Figure 47: Lidl Express, Edmonton, 2008; Figure 48: Lidl Express, Edmonton, 2008; Figure 49: Household number growth and drivers 2008; Figure 50: Basic, D�sseldorf 2007; Figure 51: EU presence of seven discounters by country 2007/08; Figure 52: Lidl’s three failures 2008; Figure 53: Other grocery retailers reactions to the discounter threat 2008; Figure 54: Tengelmann’s Plus divestment in the EU 2007/08; Figure 55: Tesco’s Discount brand 2008; Figure 56: Tesco’s Discount brand 2008; Figure 57: Carrefour private label, Calais, 2008; Figure 58: Leader Price’s Le Prix Gagnant brand revamp; Figure 59: Leader Price’s Le Prix Gagnant value line 2008

Abstract

Introduction

Verdict Research: European Discounters 2008 analyses the market conditions in the wake of the credit crunch in key EU markets. The report profiles the top operators in the market including Aldi, Lidl, Biedronka, Penny, Dia, Netto and Leaderprice/Franpix and gives strategic advice and recommendations how to counter the discounter threat.

Scope

Proprietary data on market value, discounters sales and growth 2003 -2008f for each of the 27 EU countries.
Key data on total expenditure, selling space, store numbers, sales densities and per capita expenditure for each of the 27 EU countries.
Extensive profiles of the major EU discounters, data on sales densities, space and store portfolio analysis, retail proposition and analysis.
Chapters on five core European markets and detailed strategic analysis of discounter business models and reactions to the discounter threat

Highlights

For discounters the recession represents a once in a lifetime opportunity in the UK and the US. We believe that now is the time for the likes of Aldi, Lidl and Netto to pounce. As these players widen their store portfolio and the discounter network as a whole they will further drive sales through the channel.

The discounters now need to accomplish two strategic objectives. Firstly, they must raise as much finance as possible to aggressively drive expansion into markets where they are underrepresented. Secondly the players have to continue their efforts to innovate and to further update the store model and their product ranges.

To incumbent non-discount retailers the threat is real. Usually the various players adopt one of four strategies in a response to the discounter threat or a combination thereof. Reponses include relaunching the private label range, starting a price war, format development and acquiring a discounter.

Reasons to Purchase

Learn how difficult market conditions are driving sales at the discounters and what the outlook for EU discounters will be in the short to mid-term.
Understand how evolving consumer behaviour is forcing retailers to develop new strategies to counter the discounters.
Identify the success stories and growth prospects of the key players and learn about their performance in other markets.

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The Future of European Discounters 2008

Table of Contents

Abstract