Mobile Music, The End of the Beginning:Market assessment and forecasts

Published by: Screen Digest

Published: Dec. 5, 2008 - 50 Pages

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Introduction

The Traditional Operator-Centric Threesome

Network Operator

Service Provider

Labels

The market is set to change

Handset Manufacturers Are Moving In

Previous failed attempts

iPhone launch sparks a second attempt

Apple: Upping the ante for mobile music

Nokia: The new Apple?

Sony Ericsson: "Comes with handsets"

Operator cooperation is essential for service uptake

Others Vying For A Piece Of Full Track Pie

Real: Differing strategies for online and mobile

Full Track Services

Napster: Adopting a scattergun approach

Omnifone: Challenging Nokia's CWM

New services create a more flexible supply chain

Short-Term Prediction: Who Makes It To Santa Claus' Bag?

Mobile Music Forecasts

List of tables and charts

Introduction

Global mobile music revenues

The Traditional Operator-Centric Threesome

Traditional mobile music supply chain

Share of operators offering full track

ALC and subscription services

Summary table of the main service providers

Physical Retail Revenues

Handset Manufacturers Are Moving In

Routes to the consumer

MP3 player device sales in leading markets: Western Europe, North America and Japan

Handset maunfacturer music service timeline

Full track services offered by handset manufacturers

Cumulative iPhone and iPod sales since Q2 2007

Cumulative Nokia music phone sales

Territories where Nokia Music Store is currently available

Summary table of differences between prepay and contract CWM offers

Cumulative Sony Ericsson music phone sales

Others Vying For A Piece Of Full Track Pie

Routes to the consumer

Number of Rhapsody paid subscribers

Number of Napster paid subscribers (including university subscriptions) against launches

Territories where MusicStation is currently available

Mobile music routes to consumer

Short-Term Prediction: Who Makes It To Santa Claus' Bag?

Full track and video mobile music revenues

Mobile Music Forecasts

World: mobile music consumer revenues by region

World: Total mobile music consumer revenues by business model

World: total mobile music revenue - consumer level

World: mobile music a la carte revenue - consumer level

World: mobile music subscription revenue - consumer level

World: total consumer revenues by content type

World: mobile music full-track revenue - consumer level

World: mobile music album revenue - consumer level

World: mobile music video revenue - consumer level

World: total label revenues by business model

World: mobile music a la carte revenue - label level

World: mobile music subscription revenue - label level

Mobile full track download services by operator

Mobile music subscription services by operator

Abstract

• Global mobile music revenues will increase to 3.2bn Euro by 2012.
• The largest markets in 2007 for full track and video services were Japan and the USA. The same two markets are forecast to lead in 2012.
• As operators start to change their 'walled garden' approach, more opportunity is arising for off portal service providers to enter the market.
• Bundled music service such as Nokia's Comes With Music and Sony Ericsson's PlayNow Plus are set to encourage full track music and video mobile subscription revenues to increase to 928m Euro by 2012.
• Service provider profits remain questionable due to the high wholesale price of music

• The mobile music market took off with ringtones in 1998 and is still very much dominated by personalisation services today. Despite the growing demand, mobile operators have failed to take full-track services to the mass market partly due to high pricing and costly data download charges.
• According to the report, offering music for 'free' at point of delivery is not enough to ensure uptake of the service - particularly amongst the youth market where piracy tends to be high. Customer experience and handset design are amongst the factors that need to be taken into account if these music services are to become more lasting propositions. This report includes the following:
• Analysis of the traditional operator centric mobile music model
• Discussion of handset manufacturer and off portal service provider strategies
• Profiles of key players in the market
• Historical and forecast data for mobile music market by content type and business model
• List of mobile music services available by operator

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