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Console Vendors and OTT Video Delivery: Let the Games Begin!

Published by: The Diffusion Group (TDG Research)

Published: Nov. 1, 2008 - 49 Pages


Table of Contents


1.0Introduction

2.0PayTV Operators & Proprietary Set-Top Boxes - A Relic of the 20th Century

2.1When the Levee Breaks

2.2Forget the Channel, It’s About the Experience

2.3The Emergence of Horizontal Media Environments

3.0The Evolving Role of Game Consoles and Gaming

3.1Consoles as Media Servers

3.2Gaming as Redefining Video Experiences

3.3Multiplayer Interaction and Social Media

4.0Comparing Console-Affiliated Online Video Services

4.1Sony

4.1.1Sony’s Larger OTT Vision

4.1.2The Playstation Network (PSN)

4.1.2.1General Overview

4.1.2.2Adding Support for BD-Live and Video Downloads

4.1.2.3Registered PSN Users

4.1.3Sony’s Home

4.2Microsoft

4.2.1The Primacy of Digital Downloads in Microsoft’s Long-Term Strategy
4.2.2Xbox LIVE

4.2.2.1General Overview

4.2.2.2Active Xbox LIVE Users

4.2.2.3Regional Variations

4.2.3Xbox Experience

4.3Nintendo’s WiiConnect
4.4Comparison of Console-Related Media Offerings

4.5Game Consoles as IP-STBs?

5.0Platform/Portal Summary and Strategic Recommendations

5.1Preliminary Comments

5.2Winners and Losers

5.3Strategic Recommendations

5.3.1Failing the Grade

5.3.2To Browse or Not To Browse?

5.4Microsoft’s Xbox 360/LIVE - Forgoing Optical for Downloads

5.5Sony’s PS3/PSN - A Failure to Deliver on Promises

5.6Nintendo’s Wii/The Wii Channels - Getting into the Game?

6.0Forecasts

6.1Developing a Forecast Model

6.2Global Broadband Diffusion

6.3Next-Generation Game Console Diffusion

6.3.1Preliminary Comments

6.3.2Demand for Next-Generation Consoles thru 2012

6.3.3Internet-Connected Next-Generation Game Consoles - 2008 thru 2012

6.4Use of Net-Connected Consoles for OTT Video Delivery

List of Tables

Table 1Media Availability through Game Console Networks as of November 2008

List of Figures

Figure 1Today’s Home: Long-Standing Proprietary Levees Hold Back Would-Be

Competitors

Figure 2Tomorrow’s Digital Home: The Levees Give Way and Consumer Lock Dissolves

Figure 3Sony’s Digital Video Service Rollout Strategy

Figure 4Registered Users of Sony’s Playstation Network - 2006 thru 2008

Figure 5Screen Shot of Home’s Patio Setting

Figure 6Xbox 360 LIVE Movie Download Service (Pre-Experience)

Figure 7Active Xbox LIVE Subscribers - December 2002 thru September 2008

Figure 8Regional Breakdown of Xbox LIVE Users - Q3 2008

Figure 9Screenshot of Microsoft’s New Xbox Experience

Figure 10Screenshot of the Nintendo’s Everybody’s Theater VoD Service

Figure 11Console Web Browsing Experience Remains Clumsy

Figure 12Wii and PS3 Browsers Fail to Deliver Open Web Video Viewing

Figure 13Qore: A Hint of Things to Come from Sony?

Figure 14Forecast Model

Figure 15Global Broadband and Home Network Diffusion

Figure 16Global Next-Gen Game Console Sales - 2005 thru 2007

Figure 17Global Next-Generation Console Diffusion - 2008 thru 2012

Figure 18Net-Connected Next-Generation Game Consoles - 2008 thru 2012

Figure 19Users of Console-Affiliated Gaming and Media Portals - 2008 thru 2012

Figure 20Users of Console-Affiliated Gaming and Media Portals for OTT Video Delivery - 2008 thru 2012

Abstract

Welcome to the age of quantum media, a time in which established media production, aggregation, distribution, and consumption is undergoing rapid disaggregation; a time in which the established media value chain seems to be coming apart at the seams.

In the quantum age, cable and satellite operators are no longer the only game in town. Their longstanding lock on the home is set to be contested as a new wave of competitors emerge, many using the open Internet to bypass incumbent PayTV control points and deliver video programming directly to consumers. TDG long ago coined this as ‘Over-the-Top’ or ‘OTT’ video delivery, and of the various platforms capable of enabling OTT video, today’s game consoles are among the most potent. These devices are uniquely positioned to lead the OTT charge: they are currently used by more than 90 million households worldwide; they are video-friendly, easily connected to the Internet, connected to the living room TV, and favored by younger consumers with little loyalty to a broadcast network or their local cable company.

This report focuses on the emergence and impact of OTT broadband video via broadband-enabled game consoles and console-affiliated media portals, in particular Microsoft’s Xbox 360/LIVE/Experience, Sony’s PS3/PlayStation Network/Home, and Nintendo’s Wii/Wii Channels. Using each company’s strategic position as a backdrop, this report offers a comparative analysis of current and likely portal video offerings; provides updated global forecasts for broadband-capable and broadband-enabled game consoles thru 2012; and forecasts consumer demand for this category of Over-the-Top video services. It is truly a unique report, going well beyond simply “counting the consoles” by revealing the new measure of success for console vendors: Internet attach rates and media sell-thru (specifically video).

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