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Roads and Highways Annual Review October 2008

Published by: CRISIL Ltd.

Published: Oct. 27, 2008 - 120 Pages


Table of Contents


Sections

Large investments hinging on funding availability

Executive summary

1.0 Implementation of NHDP

Awarding of contracts slip

Risks to implementation

2.0 Bidding and awarding process

Key changes suggested in Model RFQ

3.0 Investment opportunity in roads sector

Doubling of investments

Funding of national highway and state road projects

4.0 Project economics

Boxes

1.0 Implementation of NHDP

1 Size of contracts gradually increasing:

3.0 Investment opportunity in roads sector

1 State roads

Charts

1.0 Demand to remain robust; increase in supply on the horizon

1 Phase I, II and III

2.0 Bidding and awarding process

1 The flowchart describes the bidding process

Figures

Executive summary

1 Trend in road sector investments

1.0 Implementation of NHDP

1 NHDP - Completion period of contracts

2 Size of contractLength-wise

3 Size of contractsProject cost

3.0 Investment opportunity in roads sector

1 Trend in road sector investments

2 Projected investments: CRISIL Research vs Planning Commission (2008-12)

3 Penetration of road network v/s Investment

4 Shift in implementation from public sector to private sector

5 NHAI funding Eleventh 5-year Plan Rs 1,587 billion

6 Private vs Public investments in state roads (Rs 819 billion) during 2008-12

Tables

Executive summary

1 CRISIL Research's estimates on completion

1.0 Implementation of NHDP

1 NHDP - Progress on awarding

2 NHDP - Completion status across phases

3 Typical project implementation schedule

4 CRISIL Research's estimates on completion

5 Cost per km of various phases

6 CRISIL Research's estimates on completion (risk scenario)

3.0 Investment opportunity in roads sector

1 Sources of funds available to NHAI

2 User fee/Toll rates in 2006-07

4.0 Project economics

1 Sensitivity analysis

2 Sensitivity analysis

3 Comparison of BOT (toll) stretches across phases

4 Comparison of IRRs between annuity and toll contracts


Sections

1.0 Roads Network In India

Extensive road network

Clear preference for road transport

2.0 Legal, institutional and policy framework

Institutional framework

Policy framework

Concession structure NHAI projects

Fiscal Incentive

Legal framework

Ownership

3.0 Road construction activity

Type of roads

Construction equipments used in roads

4.0 National highway

National Highway Development Programme (NHDP)

Major chunk under implementation

5.0 State highways

Gujarat

Maharashtra

Rajasthan

Bihar

6.0 Rural roads

Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)

Chart

2.0 Legal, institutional and policy framework

1 Road sector Institutional arrangement at the central and state level

Figures

1.0 Roads Network In India

1 Freight traffic across mode of transportYear 2000 (848 btkm)

2 Freight traffic across modes of transport -Year 2008 (1,651 btkm)

3 Movement of passenger traffic Roads vs Railway

4.0 National highway

1 Trend in national highway network

Tables

1.0 Roads Network In India

1 Road network in India as in 2007-08

2 Pecentage of National higway in terms of width

4.0 National highway

1 NHDP — Current status as on 30 June 2008

5.0 State highways

1 Road sector development Comparison across states

6.0 Rural roads

1 Progress on PMGSY as on July 2008

Sections

1.0 Road network

2.0 Investments

3.0 NHDP

4.0 Player profile

Tables

1.0 Road network

1 Vision 2021 Plan1

2 Freight and Passenger Movement

3 Addition to National Highway Length (plan-wise)

4 Road Network in 2005-06

5 Physical targets and achievements for Tenth Plan

6 Operations of Road Transport

7 India Existing road network (National highways; their length)

8 Indian national highways by state/UT

9 State-wise road length in relation to area and population

2.0 Investments

1 Share of transport sector in GDP (at 1999 2000 prices)

2 Investments in road sector

3 Central road sector outlay/expenditure

4 State wise ongoing Road Projects funded under Central Road Fund (CRF)

5 Revenues from cess on Petrol and diesel

6 State-wise allocation and release of funds under centrally sponsored schemes — Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana

7 Funds required and available for NH maintenance

8 Financing of NHAI

3.0 NHDP

1 NHDP Phase I status

2 NHDP PHASE II Status

3 NHDP Phase III Status

4 NHDP Phase V status

5 NON NHDPStatus

6 NHDP Phase I (Contractwise details)

7 NHDP Phase II (Contractwise details)

8 NHDP Phase III (Contractwise details)

9 NHDP Phase V (Contractwise details)

10 NON NHDP Contractwise details


Tables

4.0 Player profile

1 Construction companies: Margins and RoCE

2 Afcons/Shapoorji Pallonji Details of NHDP contracts executed

3 Afcons/Shapoorji Pallonji Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

4 Ashoka Buildcon Details of NHDP Contracts Executed

5 Ashoka Buildcon Details of NHDP Contracts Under Implementation

6 Gammno India Ltd Details of NHDP Contracts Executed

7 Gammon India Ltd -Details of NHDP Contracts Under Implementation

8 Gamuda Details of NHDP contracts executed

9 Gamuda Financial details

10 Gayatri Details of NHDP contracts executed

11 Gayatri Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

12 GMR Details of NHDP Contracts Executed

13 GMR Details of NHDP Contracts Under Implementation

14 Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd Details of NHDP contracts executed

15 Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd Details of NHDP contracts

under implementation

16 Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd Financial details Consolidated

Profit and Loss Account

17 IJM Corporation Berhad Details of NHDP contracts executed

18 IJM Corporation Berhad Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

19 IJM Corporation Berhad Financial details

20 ITD Cementation (I) Ltd Details of NHDP contracts executed

21 ITD Cementation (I) Ltd Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

22 ITD Cementation India Ltd Financial details

23 IVRCL Infrastructure & Projects Ltd Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

24 IVRCL Infrastructure & Projects Ltd Financial Details Consolidated

25 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Details of NHDP contracts executed

26 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

27 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Financial Details Consolidated

28 LG Engineering & Construction Details of NHDP contracts executed

29 Madhucon Ltd Details of NHDP Contracts Executed

30 Madhucon Ltd Details of NHDP Contracts Under Implementation

31 Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd Details of NHDP contracts executed

32 Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd Details of NHDP contracts under

implementation

33 Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd Financial details - Consolidated

34 Patel Engineering Co. Ltd Details of NHDP contracts executed

35 Patel Engineering Co. Ltd Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

Tables

4.0 Player profile

36 Patel Engineering Co. Ltd Financial Details

37 Punj Lloyd Ltd Details of NHDP contracts executed

38 Punj Lloyd Ltd Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

39 Punj Lloyd Ltd Financial details Consolidated

40 Reliance Infrastructure Ltd Detais of NHDP Projects Under Implementation

41 Simplex Infrastructure Ltd Details of NHDP contracts executed

42 Simplex Infrastructure Ltd Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

43 Simplex Infrastructure Ltd Financial details

44 Sunway Construction Berhad Details of NHDP contracts executed

45 Sunway Construction Berhad Details of NHDP contracts under implementation

46 Sunway Construction Berhad Financial details

47 UEM Details of NHDP contracts executed

48 UEM Financial details

Abstract

CRISIL Research believes that the ongoing projects under Phase I, II, III and V will be completed to a substantial extent (over 90 per cent) by 2014. With the government’s continued focus on road development, CRISIL Research expects potential investments worth Rs 2,675 billion ($65.24 billion) in the road sector between 2007-08 and 2011-2012. This is almost double the investments made in the sector during 2002-2007(Rs 1, 450 billion ($40 billion)). The private sector is likely to account for a large part of the financing during 2008-2012.There are risks to the investment cycle, as large investments are planned on PPP basis. The trickle in equity financing could delay investments in the road sector. Taking these risks into consideration, CRISIL Research expects investments in the sector to come down from Rs 2,675 billion to Rs 2,026 billion. The private sector is expected to contribute around Rs 930 billion in funding of road sector investments.

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