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Czech Republic Tourism Report Q4 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 17, 2008 - 46 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractTourism OverviewBased on recent data for the number of foreign guests in the hospitality sector, BMI has revised up its estimate for growth in the number of foreign visitors to the Czech Republic in 2007 to a favourable 4% year-on-year (y-o-y). This would represent a pick-up in growth compared with 2006. Hospitality Data for 2007 show a modest increase of some 1.9% y-o-y in the total number of guests overall at collective accommodation establishments to near 13mn. However, foreign guests recorded a somewhat stronger 3.8% increase, compared with 2006, to almost 6.7mn. This was despite a fall in arrivals from Germany - the key source market - of over 4% y-o-y. The total number of tourism nights in 2007 was disappointing, down 1.5% y-o-y, although foreign tourism nights rose 2.6% y-o-y. Overnight stays by German and UK tourists, however, were down 7% and near 1% y-o-y respectively. Overnight stays by Russian tourists though were up a buoyant 26% y-o-y. Russia also recorded the second largest number of overnight stays in the Czech Republic in 2007 (after Germany). This was partly due to the high average number of overnight stays per Russian guest (5.3 nights per guest in 2007 and 5.7 nights in 2006). Forecast Scenario As we have been expecting, the slowdown in the Czech economy certainly seems to have taken hold in Q108, with real GDP growth slowing to 5.4% y-o-y. This is the slowest rate since Q404, and is well below the 6.5% recorded in 2007. We expect to see further declines in the quarterly outturns, and have a full-year 2008 forecast of 5.0%. We believe that this will usher in a period of slower economic expansion, with growth rates in the 4% to 5% range through to the end of our forecast period in 2012. Despite success in diversifying source markets, BMI’s outlook for foreign visitor arrivals over the forecast period remains modest. This is partly due to economic conditions in major source markets. In particular, real GDP growth in Germany and the eurozone is forecast to slow in 2008 but recover next year. BMI also expects the Czech koruna to continue strengthening against the euro over the next few years, which is expected to constrain growth in foreign visitor arrivals. Prague Ruzyne International Airport In Q108, Prague Ruzyne International Airport recorded an increase in passenger numbers of more than 7% compared with the corresponding period of 2007. Moreover, low-cost airlines transported almost 15% more passengers during the same period y-o-y, while their share of the airport’s overall operations reached 26%. Czech Airlines In the first four months of 2008, Czech Airlines (CSA) recorded a loss of CZK444mn (US$27.8mn), with high fuel prices offsetting cost cuts, compared with a loss of CZK335mn in the same period a year earlier. The airline had expected a slightly deeper loss of CZK453mn. Operating income rose by nearly 2% y-o-y to CZK6.7bn, while operating costs (including fuel) declined by 2.6% y-o-y to some CZK 7.05bn. Over the same period, CSA carried almost 1.6mn passengers, an increase of 2.7% y-o-y. This was a rather good outturn, considering it was the low season, while the airline also continued to record growth in business class passengers. In May 2008, CSA announced that it will be acquiring two new Airbus A319s (mainly for European routes), one in 2009 and the second in 2010. Czech Republic Tourism SWOT Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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