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That Was the Week That Was: Restructuring the Global Banking Industry One Hour at a Time

Published by: TowerGroup

Published: Sep. 25, 2008 - 8 Pages


Table of Contents


TowerGroup Take-Aways

The week of September 15, 2008, was one of the most disruptive periods in the history of the banking industry, and the disruptions are not over yet.

The value of a strong deposits-gathering franchise has been affirmed, as has the universal banking model; much work remains to make the whole greater than the sum of the parts.

The bottom of this crisis is in sight, as defined by well-capitalized banks' interest in making acquisitions based on the value of the target franchises.

The good news for banks is that many banking lines of business (transaction services and wealth management) and geographic areas (Latin America, Asia-Pacific) are still growing.

Loan delinquencies will rise through next year, however, exacerbating the gap between the strong and the weak.

The proper role of regulation and transparency will be hotly debated over the coming months, but TowerGroup believes innovation will not be stifled

Report Coverage

Background

What Do We Know?

Exhibit 1

Exhibit 2

Where Do We Go Next?

Summary


Abstract

The events of the week of September 15, 2008, are the most significant to hit the banking industry within the working lives of anyone reading this report. By the end of the week, the crisis seemed to have attenuated somewhat, as world markets and bank share prices rebounded on Thursday and Friday. However, in TowerGroup's opinion, the crisis is not over. This Research Note provides TowerGroup's view of the current situation in the global banking industry based on many interviews and discussions with global banking industry executives and offers some conclusions and forecasts about what to expect next.

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