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Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 15, 2008 - 63 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWO
Zimbabwe Political SWOT
Zimbabwe Economic SWOT
Zimbabwe Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Developments
Pricing And Reimbursement Issues
Public Drug Procurement
Industry Developments
Health Profile
HIV/AIDS Situation
Healthcare System
Healthcare Funding
Healthcare Staff
Pharmaceutical Sector
Timeline Of Zimbabwe's Hyperinflation
Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments
Table: ARV Prices Available Through Direct Purchase From Roche (CHF)
Traditional Medicine
Biotechnology Sector Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecasts
Table: Zimbabwe’s Drug Market Forecasts
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Table: Zimbabwe’s Healthcare Expenditure Indicators
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Table: Zimbabwe - Economic Activity
Prescription Market Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe’s Prescription Drug Marke12 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
OTC Market Forecast
OTC Market Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe’s OTC Marke12 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Generics And Patented Market Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe Generics And Patented Marke-
Export/Import Forecasts
Table: Zimbabwe’s Pharmaceutical Imports And Export10 (US$mn)
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Table: Zimbabwe’s Other Healthcare Forecast12
Key Risks To BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Multinational Companies
Ranbaxy
Pfizer
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
Merck & Co
GlaxoSmithKline
Indigenous Companies
Datlabs
Varichem Laboratories
CAPS Holdings
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Industry
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources

Abstract

Zimbabwe’s pharmaceutical market remains an extremely unattractive prospect due to ongoing politicaland economic problems. Indeed, the problems breed uncertainty that makes long-term market forecastschallenging. BMI expects further slow deterioration of the market through to 2010. We believe that themarket will continue to be propped up to a large extent by donations from international aid agencies,meaning that it has little further to fall. Having said this, recent threats to clamp down on international aidagency activity by the regime of President Robert Mugabe or the possible imposition of internationalsanctions backed by the US and UK could precipitate a further fall in the value of the pharmaceuticalmarket.

Demonstrating the ongoing supply chain difficulties, in April 2008, Zimbabwe’s leading health insuranceorganisation Cimas suspended its HIV/AIDS drug benefits for those covered by the add-on chronicdisease package, citing a shortage of antiretrovirals (ARVs). The insurer claimed it was unable to sourceARVs from abroad due to a lack of foreign currency. Meanwhile, its local manufacturing partners hadstopped producing the drugs due to pricing controls. Such a situation is likely to have a serious adverseeffect on the country’s HIV/AIDS burden. BMI’s Burden of Disease Database (BoDD) forecasts that thenumber of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to HIV/AIDS will increase by an average of 1.4% ayear between 2007 and 2012 to reach 4.92mn in 2012.

Unsurprisingly, BMI rates Zimbabwe’s business environment as the least attractive of the 13 Middle Eastand Africa (MEA) pharmaceutical markets surveyed. The business environment has continued todeteriorate over the past year, with the international community, led by the US and UK, looking seriouslyat imposing sanctions on the Mugabe regime. Meanwhile, in October 2007, Zimbabwe's parliamentpassed the Indigenisation and Empowerment Bill, which aims to increase local ownership of companies.

The bill extends and formalises the controversial land reforms pursued by the Mugabe regime in theagricultural sector. It requires that at least 50% of shares in the manufacturing industry be owned byZimbabweans. However, uncertainty again plagues the proposals, with no clear timescale set out for theimplementation of the bill's objectives.

In April 2008, Indian backer Shreya Life Sciences divested its 40% stake in CAPS Pharmaceuticals(co-owned with CAPS Holdings) to an unnamed foreign investor. CAPS Holdings is continuing itsinvestment in capital projects. However, the loss of its Indian backer is likely to make it challenging toobtain hard currency to fund such activities.

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