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Lebanon Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 16, 2008 - 56 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Lebanon Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Political SWOT
Economic SWOT
Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Ranking
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Lebanon - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Public Sector Procurement
Intellectual Property Regime
USTR ‘Specia1’ Repo
IP Shortcomings
Parallel Imports
Counterfeit Drugs
Table: Losses Due To Counterfeit Drugs In The Middle Eas
Free Trade Agreements
Pricing And Reimbursement Issues
Table: Lebanon’s Incremental Drug Margins
Industry Developments
Health Profile
HIV/AIDS Infections
Healthcare Sector
Hospital Sector
Healthcare Sector Reforms
Regional Developments
Pharmaceuticals Sector
Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
Research And Development
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecasts
Table: Lebanon’s Drug Expenditure Indicator1
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Table: Lebanon’s Health Expenditure, Estimates And Forecast12
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Table: Lebanon - Economic Activity
Prescription Market Forecast
Table: Lebanon Prescription Market Indicator12 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
OTC Market Forecast
Table: Lebanon’s OTC Market Indicator12 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Generics Market Forecast
Table: Lebanon’s Generics And Patented Market Indicator12
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Pharmaceutical Export/Import Market Forecasts
Table: Lebanon’s Export/Import Indicator12 (US$mn)
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Table: Lebanon - Other Healthcare Dat12
Key Risks To BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Multinational Companies
Pfizer
Novartis
Merck & Co
Johnson & Johnson
Sanofi-Aventis
Abbott Laboratories
Indigenous Companies
Chalhoub Pharmaceuticals (CHAPHA)
Alfa Laboratories
Algorithm
Codipha
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Industry
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources

Abstract

Lebanon’s drug market was estimated to be worth LBP712bn (US$472mn) in 2007. BMI forecasts slowgrowth, averaging 3.5% year-on-year over the forecast period, with the market reaching just LBP845bn(US$560mn) by the end of 2012. Per capita drug expenditure is relatively high for the country’s level ofeconomic development. In 2007, per capita expenditure on prescription and over-the-counter (OTC)medicines came to an estimated US$132 - on a par with richer nations in the Middle East. Indeed,relative to GDP, Lebanon continues to devote a high proportion of GDP to pharmaceuticals, largely as aconsequence of strong demand for more expensive, patented drugs.

Political instability is likely to continue to hold back development in a healthcare system that has beenseverely damaged by conflict. Indeed, only 8% of the population benefit from government-run healthcare.Most patients access healthcare through hospitals, supporting prescription drug sales, which wereestimated to account for 90% of the drug market in 2007.

Meanwhile, generic substitution is likely to become an increasing trend over the forecast period, whichwill place further limits on drug market growth. BMI expects that, by value, generics will increase froman estimated 19.9% of the market in 2007 to reach 21.6% of the market by 2012. However, most of thesedrugs are likely to arrive as imports, as quality concerns continue to affect the domestic pharmaceuticalmanufacturing industry.

In BMI’s updated Business Environment Ratings for Q308, Lebanon is placed 10th out of 13 Middle Eastand Africa (MEA) markets surveyed. Its small, pharmaceutical market, which is forecast to growrelatively slowly over the next five years, offers limited attraction to drugmakers. Having said this, thecountry’s structure is considered conductive to pharmaceutical market growth thanks to a fast-growingand highly urbanised population, which boosts access to medicine and should simplify the supply chain.

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