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Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 17, 2008 - 70 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Pakistan Pharmaceutical Industry SWOT
Pakistan Political SWOT
Pakistan Economic SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Business Environment Ranking
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rankings
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Pakistan - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Regime
Shortcomings Of The Intellectual Property Environment
Table: Healthcare And Pharmaceutical Companies That Are Members Of The American Business Council Of Pakistan
Counterfeit Drugs
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
Recent Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
Industry Trends And Developments
Epidemiology
Key Health Issues
Pharmaceutical Sector
Table: Pakistan’s Pharmaceutical Market In 6
Domestic Industry
Multinational Sector
Traditional Medicine
Research And Development
Retail Sector
International Co-operation
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pakistan - Drug Expenditure And Prescription Market Indicators (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Table: Pakistan’s Health Expenditure Indicators
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Table: Pakistan Economic Activity
Patented Market Forecast
Table: Pakistan’s Patented Drugs Market Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Generics Market Forecasts
Table: Pakistan Generic Drugs Market Forecast Indicators
OTC Market Forecast
Table: Pakistan’s OTC Drugs Market Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Export/Import Forecasts
Table: Pakistan’s Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Table: Other Healthcare Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Leading Multinational Manufacturers
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
Abbott Laboratories
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
Merck & Co
Wyeth
Domestic Manufacturers
Hilton Pharma
Efroze Chemical Industries
Ferozsons Laboratories
Pacific Pharmaceuticals
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Industry
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources

Abstract

In BMI’s Business Environment Rankings for Q308, Pakistan remains last out of the 14 markets assessedin the Asia Pacific region, although the country does offer some investment prospects. However, thefundamentals for Pakistan - including low per capita healthcare and pharmaceutical spending, unsettledpolitical situation and regulatory shortcomings - are clearly far from optimal. On the other hand, thecountry’s rapidly expanding population and developing economy present an opportunity for foreigncompanies willing to operate in a risky environment, where only about half the population has access tomodern medicines and where the government is committed to keeping drug prices low. Similarly, thesituation has a significant potential for improvement, provided the country amends the Drug Act 1976 andgives increased protection for patented pharmaceuticals.

In the meantime, in May 2008, due to erosion of margins, pharmaceutical companies called on Pakistan'sgovernment to allow them to increase the price of medicines by 10%. The firms have been negativelyimpacted by the prices of drugs that have remained stable for the last five years, despite the fact that thecost of production (including wages, petrol and raw materials) has risen by one fifth over the same period.However, the price controls are expected to remain in place for the medium term, although this may meanthat some local companies will cease to be operational. Nevertheless, any gaps that may appear in themarket are expected to be filled by operators from a lower cost base country, such as neighbouring India.

Around the same time, keeping to their commitment to improve access to medicines, the authoritiesannounced the creation of a new scheme to dispense essential medicines free of charge from counters ingovernment hospitals. The drugs had previously been distributed by the humanitarian Bait-Ul-Maalscheme, but allegations of misappropriation of funds have led to stricter controls. BMI welcomes themove, but points out that only a very small percentage of the country's vast population will benefit, giventhat only US$16.2mn has been dispersed by Bait-Ul-Maal in over a decade. It had been known that theBait-Ul-Maal scheme lacked transparency, but it was not until a case of gross nepotism that a revision ofthe system was demanded by the Ministry of Health.

In terms of the country’s medical devices prospects, the industry and the market are indicative of thewider state of Pakistan’s development. While the demand for new and modern equipment exists, it is notsupported by healthcare financing and logistics. Consequently, the medical devices market is negligible inglobal terms, hampered by ill-equipped public hospitals and an underdeveloped primary care network.

While the private sector exists in more affluent urban areas, it is very small. Most hi-tech devices willcontinue to be imported, although a small and fragmented domestic industry will remain responsible forthe manufacture of a range of quality devices, which are increasingly exported.

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