|
|
Singapore Commercial Banking Report Q3 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 17, 2008 - 40 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractOver the last year, the crisis in the inter-bank market, and the soaring prices of oil and other raw materials,tended to obscure several other important trends. In most of the developing world (i.e. the vast majority ofthe countries whose banking industries are surveyed by BMI), lending has been growing quickly. In manyemerging markets, inflationary pressures have been boosted by a rapid increase in credit. In a number ofemerging markets, macro-economic imbalances are evident.The figures on the tables above provide a snapshot of the banking sector in Singapore and the changes thathave taken place within it over the last year. To place the figures in context, it may be useful to bear inmind certain aspects of the 59 countries whose banking sectors are currently surveyed by BMI. Acrossthis sample, the median growth in assets in local currency terms was 21.3% (in Colombia). The medianloan growth was 21.6% (in India). The median growth in deposits was 17.9% (in Brazil). On their own, the ratios of loans to deposits, assets, and GDP mean little: however, they can provideuseful hints when combined with other data. Across the 59 countries, the median loan/deposit ratio is92.3% (in Greece). The median loan/asset ratio is 56.0% (in Poland). The median loan/GDP ratio was63.9% in India. From Q308, we have included a new section that examines the risks associated with each country’sbanking sector in a new way. We have essentially sought to ask this question: to what extent will thebanking sector likely need to source funding from banks in the rest of the world over the course of 2008.Given that the answer is not necessarily, on its own, meaningful, we have looked at other key issues suchas the size and recent movement in the loan/deposit ratio, macro-economic developments and recentmovements in financial markets. Two general themes pervade the banking sectors of the Asia-Pacific region. The first is that the excesssavings within Greater China and Japan remain enormous and are likely to grow. One expression of thiswill be the continuing growth in bank deposits that is, in absolute terms, considerably greater than thegrowth in lending. The second is that central banks have, in much of the region, been moving to tightenmonetary policy. This has already had an impact on the behaviour of the banks. As in previous reports, we include a SWOT analysis for Singapore. The main question is: where do thebanks go next? Singapore has become a rich country with an extremely robust banking sector (togetherwith a sophisticated insurance sector and a world-famous organised savings system). The 20% growth inlending over the last year or so shows that the sector can still achieve double-digit growth. This growthcomes from further increase in the population (and, therefore, demand for housing) and from the furtherdevelopment of Singapore as a regional business hub. Singapore’s unassailable position as the financialservices centre for South East Asia also means that it will remain a place where multi-national businesseswith interests elsewhere in the region book loans. Across other countries in the region, lending growth hasgenerally been steady rather than spectacular. One reason for this could well be that a certain amount oflending that might otherwise take place in Malaysia, say, or the Philippines, is being undertaken inSingapore. Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating(CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits ofpotential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurancepotential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends onan assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this reflects BMI’s assessments ofoverall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment.Singapore’s overall CBBER is 77.0. Within the limits to potential return, banking market structure andcountry structure are almost evenly rated - with scores of 71.9 and 73.2 respectively. Within the risks tothe realisation of potential returns, the banking market risks are somewhat higher than the country risks -with respective scores of 93.3 and 83.8. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
|
|||
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||||