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Fast Casual Restaurants - US

Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.

Published: Aug. 1, 2008 - 102 Pages


Table of Contents


Scope and Themes

What you need to know

Definition

Resources used for Consumer sections

Abbreviations and terms

Abbreviations

Terms

Executive Summary

In a nutshell

Restaurant industry in recession

Fast casual restaurants weather economic storm well

Region is the great demographic differentiator

Playing to strength

Sales momentum lies with bread-based and ethnic chains

For bread-based chains, breakfast innovation is paramount

Chipotle: a case study in excellence

Other leading chains

Other notable trends

Snacking innovation: a QSR killer?

Dinner: to participate, or not to participate?

The need for speed

Catering to the masses; it’s a bread-based thing

The internet is for everyone

Advertising and promotion

Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart

Decision criteria regarding fast casual restaurants

Fast casual restaurant selection factors

Competitive Context

Regional footprint = growth potential; similar, overlapping concepts to suffer

Figure 2: Leading ethnic fast casual chains, by state-to-state location and penetration, 2007

Do you want to be McDonald’s? Or do you want to be “you”?

Rule #1: Don’t try to be McDonald’s.

Rule #2: Play to your strengths.

Competing on value and premium

Figure 3: Average price per entrée, family versus fast casual versus QSR, Q1 2007 and Q1 2008

Market Size and Forecast

Market size

Figure 4: Total U.S. systemwide sales of leading fast casual chains, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-09

Figure 5: Selected fast casual restaurant same-store sales, 2005-07

Segmentation Performance

Introduction

Figure 6: U.S. systemwide sales of leading fast casual chains, segmented by menu type, 2005 and 2007

Segment Performance: Bread-Based Chains

Figure 7: U.S. systemwide sales of top bread-based fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007

Figure 8: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading bread-based fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007

Segment Performance: Traditional Chains

Figure 9: U.S. systemwide sales of top traditional fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007

Figure 10: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading traditional fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007

Segment Performance: Ethnic Chains

Figure 11: U.S. systemwide sales of top ethnic fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007

Figure 12: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading ethnic fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007

Market Drivers

Restaurant industry in recession

Figure 13: Restaurant performance index: all-items, current situation, and expectations, January 2006-June 2008

Fast casual restaurants weather economic storm well

Consumers under pressure

Figure 14: Consumer Price Index, key consumer items, January 2006-June 2008*

Discretionary income under attack; but upper-middle income families feel less pain

Figure 15: Percentage of income spent on key consumer expenditures, by HH income quintile, 2006*

Good news for fast casual restaurants

Figure 16: Usage and mean use of fast casual, family and quick-service restaurants, by HH income, 2007*

Rising farm products costs pressure foodservice margins

Stirring the melting pot

Figure 19: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13

Leading Companies

Figure 20: U.S. systemwide sales of top fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007

Restaurant Analysis: Panera Bread

The environment

The menu

Pulling Crispani signals entrée shift out of dinner daypart

Bakery items, soups and salads rule the menu

Figure 21: Panera Bread, new menu introductions, food, by menu course, Q1 2007-Q2 2008

Growth trajectory: positive, but same-store sales a trouble spot

Figure 22: Panera Bread same-store sales, 2005-07

Moving forward

Restaurant Analysis: Buffalo Wild Wings

The environment

The menu

Dinner and late-night dayparts set concept apart

Aggressive and innovative advertising and promotions

Growth trajectory: positive

Figure 23: Buffalo Wild Wings, average weekly sales, 2003-Q1 2008

Restaurant Analysis: Chipotle

The environment

The menu

An ingredient innovator

Growth trajectory: positive, on heels of best-in-class branding

Restaurant Analysis: Steak n Shake

Menu on a health kick?

The milkshake conundrum

Leveraging the drive-thru

Growth trajectory: neutral

Restaurant Analysis: Boston Market

The menu

Growth trajectory: neutral

Restaurant Analysis: Zaxby’s

The experience

The menu

Figure 24: Zaxby’s, food menu items, by cuisine type, Q1 2007-Q2 2008

Snacking innovation

An Asian twist

Growth trajectory: positive

Restaurant Analysis: Pei Wei

The menu

Figure 25: Pei Wei, food menu items, by cuisine type, Q1 2007-Q2 2008

Figure 26: Pei Wei, top five food menu items, by ingredient, Q1 2007-Q2 2008

Growth trajectory: positive, but significantly slower growth ahead

Restaurant Brand Qualities: Chipotle Case Study

Keeping it simple, but catering to choice

Figure 27: Fast casual selection factors—value, variety, convenience, May 2008

Balancing the quality/freshness/healthfulness bar

Figure 28: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, May 2008

Figure 29: Chipotle, food menu items, by ingredient claim, Q1 2007-Q2 2008

Drilling down: “Food with Integrity” melds quality with healthfulness

A 700-chain locavore

All of which enhances the value proposition

Figure 30: Fast casual selection factors—value, May 2008

Bottom line: one heck of a branding story

Innovation and Innovators

Daypart innovation

Breakfast—for bread-based chains, innovation is paramount

Snacking innovation—a QSR killer?

Dinner: to participate, or not to participate

Standing out in a crowd

The entertainment factor

The need for speed

Outreach and efficiency through catering and technology

Catering to the masses; it’s a bread-based thing

The internet is for everyone

Advertising and Promotion

Overview

A low bar: un-hip, low-budget advertising

Non-TV media

Television ads

Boston Market

Figure 31: Boston Market: the argument, 2008

Figure 32: Boston Market: the argument, revisited, 2008

Figure 33: Boston Market, the argument, Round Three, 2008

Buffalo Wild Wings

Figure 34: Buffalo Wild Wings, “The Boss,” 2008

Fazoli’s

Figure 35: Fazoli’s, “Deal Days,” 2008

Steak n Shake

Figure 36: Steak n Shake “mixing up flavor,” 2008

Figure 37: Steak n Shake, “we can do that,” 2008

Figure 38: Steak n Shake, Double Steakburger Festival, 2008

Figure 39: Steak n Shake, shake focus, 2008

Figure 40: Steak n Shake, kids’ shakes, 2008

Usage of Fast Casual Restaurants

Key points

Usage of fast casual restaurants e 2008

Figure 41: Fast casual order purchases in past month, by gender, age, HH income and race/ethnicity, JunUsage of Fast Casual Restaurant Brands

Key points

Usage of fast casual restaurant brands

Figure 42: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, June 2008

Figure 43: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by HH income, June 2008

Usage of fast casual restaurant brands—supplementary view

Figure 44: Usage of eight leading fast casual restaurant brands, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007

Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart

Figure 45: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart, June 2008

Figure 46: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart, by age, June 2008

Figure 47: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart, by number of people in household, June 2008

Decision Criteria Regarding Fast Casual Restaurants

Key points

Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants

Figure 48: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, June 2008

Figure 49: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by age, June 2008

Figure 50: Competitive attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by income, June 2008

Fast Casual Restaurant Selection Factors

Key points

Section methodology

General food attributes

Figure 51: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, June 2008

Figure 52: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by age, June 2008

Figure 53: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by income, June 2008

Value and variety

Figure 54: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, June 2008

Figure 55: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by gender, June 2008

Figure 56: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by age, June 2008

Where and what?

Figure 57: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, June 2008

Figure 58: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, by gender, June 2008

Figure 59: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, by age, June 2008

Figure 60: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by income, June 2008

Specific food choices

Figure 61: Fast casual selection factors—specific food choices, June 2008

Figure 62: Fast casual selection factors— specific food choices, by age, June 2008

Figure 63: Fast casual selection factors— specific food choices, by ethnicity, June 2008

Food Options Fast Casual Users Want to See

Key points

Figure 64: Food options fast casual and QSR users want to see more of, June 2008

Appendix: Trade Associations

Abstract

The fast casual restaurant segment remains positioned as the growth leader within the restaurant industry, with positive momentum in spite of the current macro-economic climate. This report provides the reader with statistics and insights about the fast casual category that can help a market player do the following:
  • Position restaurant brands to withstand oncoming competition from within the segment as brands grow from regional to national players
  • Understand how income, race & ethnicity, and age of fast casual users help keep the fast casual restaurant segment at the head of foodservice growth
  • Identify segment strengths and learn why players should play to those strengths
  • Learn why Chipotle is performing at the top of the class, and what can be learned from its success when planning for the future
  • Assess the relevance of snacking trends to segment growth-and see who's innovating
  • Understand who is innovating by daypart, and how they are doing it
  • Obtain a thorough assessment of which consumer decision criteria can make or break a fast causal restaurant


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