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Smaller Than You Thought: Estimates Of The Future Size And Growth Rate Of The Retirement Market In The United States -- BASE VERSION

Published by: The Coyne Partnership, Inc.

Published: May. 23, 2008 - 117 Pages


Table of Contents



Introduction

Summary of Key Findings

Detailed Study Results

Appendix

Abstract

There is a commonly-held belief that the US retirement market will undergo explosive growth in the next few years due to the so-called “silver tsunami of 78 million baby boomers poised on the brink of retirement”. However, until now, no detailed estimates have been published anywhere in the marketplace regarding the specific size and growth rate of this market over the next 25 years.

This report presents the first-ever detailed estimates (year-by-year, age-by-age, from now until 2032) based on an analysis of data from several key sources (US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, etc.), each of whom had analyzed part of the issue but none of whom had analyzed the entire issue. Importantly, this meticulously-developed analysis shows that the actual growth rate of the US retirement market will be much smaller than commonly believed - i.e., less than 4% per year, even under generous assumptions, and virtually 0% under more likely scenarios - due to several previously under-appreciated demographic issues and behavioral trends.

This analysis has generated significant media attention since its publication, as its findings are surprising to most audiences and are likely to have significant consequences for many firms in a variety of industries, as well as various government entities and many individuals.The 117-page Base Version, includes the following:
    (1) A valuable Introduction explaining many subtle distinctions that are required to fully understand the definition of “the retirement market” - distinctions that are vital since different companies or government entities may be interested in very different segments of the overall retirement market;
    (2) A no-holds-barred Summary Of Key Findings, including eight graphic PowerPoint exhibits that enable the reader to effectively yet concisely communicate those key findings to colleagues, customers, constituents, or other important audiences; and
    (3) 96 pages of Detailed Study Results, broken down into four separate sections, featuring extensive data tables that show the specific number of persons estimated to be working (broken into various sub-categories) versus retired (also broken into various sub-categories), by age, for each of the next 25 years, based on Americans' current propensity to retire, plus additional estimates for each of the next 10 years based on their potential future propensity to retire if recent behavioral trends continue or accelerate.


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