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Egypt Freight Transport Report Q3 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 18, 2008 - 56 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractIn April, HSBC Holdings said its managed US$500mn Middle East Infrastructure Fund, set up two years earlier, had made its first investment, buying a minority stake in Egyptian port operator Alexandria International Container Terminals (AICT). HSBC noted that annual cargo growth in Egypt was running at around 12% per annum, creating a strong investment opportunity. Dubai International Capital and Waha Capital of Abu Dhabi also support the fund. AITC is a subsidiary of Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) of Hong Kong. Interestingly, BMI takes a rather more conservative position, although we agree prospects for shipping growth in Egypt are good in our latest Egypt Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that shipping traffic, measured in million tonnes-km will rise by an annual average of 7.0% in the 2008-2012 forecast period, ahead of Egypt’s general rate of economic growth, which we project at 5.4%.Various factors support this prediction. Global trade will continue expanding despite the expected cooling in the US economy this year. Specifically Egyptian trade will be boosted by increasing gas and LNG exports. Greater port capacity will also play a part. Overall BMI is forecasting moderate growth in domestic freight transport sectors between 2008 and 2012. While the government has declared its intentions to improve all aspects of the transport infrastructure, these plans are long-term and the benefits are unlikely to make a major difference to the freight transport industry until beyond the forecast period. As a result, the industry will have to continue to make use of the existing facilities for several years. Egypt scores a total of 53.9 (out of a theoretical maximum of 100) in our freight ratings. The country’s strong points are economic risk and the competitive environment, at least with reference to its peers. Areas for improvement include infrastructure, freight growth, transport intensity (a measure of the dynamism of foreign trade) and the regulatory environment. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$20.8bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 9.9% of Egypt’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 1.25mn people, or 6.4% of the labour force, in 2007. We see the figure rising to 1.35mn people by 2012, although it will remain stable as a proportion of the total workforce at 6.4%. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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