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Netherlands Freight Transport Report Q3 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 18, 2008 - 35 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractIncreased fuel costs were having a negative impact on the road transport sector in Q208. At the end of June Dutch taxi drivers organised a series of protests over high fuel prices, including driving in a slow convoy on the ring motorway around Amsterdam and blocking bus stations in Utrecht. The protests were organised by KNV Taxi, a branch of Royal Netherlands Transport (RNT), the national transport representative organisation. Royal Netherlands Transport was campaigning to get the government to postpone an additional EUR0.03 per litre diesel fuel tax due to start from the beginning of July. Another transport association, Transport and Logistics Netherlands (TLN), said it wanted the government to lower transport taxes when fuel costs rose. ‘The transport sector is mostly made up of small- and medium-sized businesses’ said TLN spokesman Elmer de Bruyn, adding that ‘the smaller the company, the more difficult it is to pass on the rising diesel prices to the shipper.’ TLN said protest blockades carried out by Spanish truckers had caused EUR500,000 (US$789,000) worth of losses for Dutch transport companies.We are expecting GDP growth in the Netherlands to slow down from 3.5% in 2007 to 2.4% in 2008 and to 1.8% in 2009. The bottom of the cooling cycle will come in 2010 with growth of 1.6%, but after that the pace will begin to recover again. We now expect average annual GDP growth across the 2008-2012 five-year forecast period at 1.9%. This compares with 2.1% in 2003-2007. The effect on our freight traffic forecasts for the period as a whole, compared with the preceding one, is therefore slightly negative. We expect annual average growth in freight carried across all modes, measured in million tonne km (mntkm), of 1.7% during the forecast period of 2008-2012, down from 3.7% in the preceding five years. Slower economic growth is perhaps the key driver of the slowdown in the freight sector. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 4.2% in 2007, 0.7 of a percentage point ahead of GDP. For the 2008-2012 forecast period we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 2.6%, versus 1.9% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$76.7bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 9.0% of the Netherlands’ GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 819,000 people, or 6.1% of the labour force, in 2007. We see that figure staying virtually constant at around 817,000 by 2012. Our overall forecast for freight carried in the Netherlands is for continuing moderate growth based on a mature industry, good infrastructure, a supportive economic growth rate, and the country’s openness to foreign trade. For the five-year period running up to 2012, BMI now expects freight carried to increase by an annual average of 1.7%, slightly behind the general growth rate of the economy. We see the best performing sector being airfreight, which, with annual average growth of 2.4%, will come through another period of relative turbulence in the sector, caused by a new peak in energy costs. We believe Dutch aviation, and the Air France-KLM alliance in particular, will ride out the storm. It will be followed by rail freight, where we are forecasting growth of 2.2% per annum reflecting recent investments, most notably the opening of a new freight line to Germany. Pipeline will grow by 2.0% throughout the forecast period, followed by both road haulage and sea freight at 1.9%. Inland water transport will bring up the rear with growth of 0.9% per annum. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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