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Czech Republic Freight Transport Report Q3 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 18, 2008 - 49 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractIn June media reports confirmed the government’s decision to sell Letiste Praha, the operator of Prague airport, for a minimum of CZK100bn (US$6.35bn). Prime minister Mirek Topolanek said he had requested the finance ministry to issue a tender for an adviser for the sale. The aim would be to sell the operator to a strategic partner. The government indicated that its intention was to sell Letiste Praha and CSA Czech Airlines to raise money to fund railway and highway construction and to overhaul the pension system. According to the local media, the first step in selling a 91% stake in CSA, the stateowned airline, would also be to hire an advisor, with a decision expected by August. Companies interested in CSA were said to include the Odien Group, Air France-KLM, China Southern, and Aeroflot.BMI believes the Czech aviation sector will continue to face reasonable growth. In our latest Czech Republic Freight Transport report, BMI concludes that air cargo traffic will grow by 8.2% per annum on average over the next five years. Our optimistic outlook is based on a number of factors. The Czech Republic is set for continued strong economic growth (4.6% per annum on average to 2012, according to our forecasts). European Union (EU) membership has placed the country near the centre of gravity of Eastern European logistics. Although we earlier trimmed back our airfreight forecast, in view of CSA’s financial difficulties, the airline is improving and the outlook remains for strong growth in this sector, based on solid fundamentals such as the low-cost carrier (LCC) boom. In fact, BMI is bullish on freight across most modes in the Czech Republic. We expect freight carried by road to be one of the most dynamic sectors over the next few years, with annual growth averaging 5.9% in 2008-2012. This incorporates the negative effect of high petrol prices and a small downwards ‘blip’ in the road haulage growth rate in 2007-2008, because of the introduction of the electronic tolling system. Oil shipped by pipeline should grow at around 5.3% a year, ahead of GDP. However, we expect rail freight to lag as investment in the rail system takes time to have an effect; the average growth for 2008- 2012 will come out at a more modest 3.4% per annum. Freight carried by inland waterways will grow slowly at 2.3% per annum. The result is that we now forecast total freight carried across all modes, measured in million tonne-km (mntkm), to rise by an annual average of 5.3% per annum in 2008-2012. Under our freight transport rating the Czech Republic earns a composite score of 60.3, out of a theoretical maximum of 100. This places it at the upper end of its European peer group. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$32.9bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 11.5% of the Czech Republic’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 368,000 people, or 7.8% of the labour force, in 2007. We see that figure falling slightly to 357,000 by 2012, although it will remain unchanged as a proportion of the total labour force. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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