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Belgium Freight Transport Report Q3 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 18, 2008 - 34 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractRail passenger and cargo services were interrupted by a 24-hour strike on May 20, as trade unions brought pressure to bear for a wage increase higher than the 2% offered by the state-owned railway company Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer Belge (SNCB), which had recently come back into profit. The dispute was also over flexible working and pension levels. High-speed international passenger services to London, Paris and Amsterdam had to be cancelled because of the industrial action. Rail cargo services to the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge were also interrupted. The strike affected SNCB’s freight subsidiary, B-Cargo, which carries around 80% of all rail cargo going through Belgium, including coking coal and thermal coal for steel and power plants in France and Germany. B-Cargo director Albert Counet was quoted noting that after any stoppage, it would take a number of days for rail freight to return to normal: ‘Unfortunately rail transport is not very flexible’, he said. The government said the strike, the biggest of its kind since 2004, had cost the economy EUR40mn (US$62mn) in lost business.According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 3.2% in 2007, 0.5 of a percentage point (pp) ahead of GDP, which rose by 2.7%. For the 2008-2012 forecast period we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 2.5%, versus 2.0% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$20bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 6.8% of Belgium’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 311,000 people, or 7.7% of the labour force, in 2007. We see that figure staying virtually constant at around 310,000 by 2012. Our overall forecast for freight carried in Belgium is for continuing moderate growth based on a mature industry, good infrastructure, a supportive economic growth rate, and the country’s openness to foreign trade. For the five-year period running up to 2012, BMI now expects freight carried to increase by an annual average of 1.9%, fractionally behind the general growth rate of the economy. We see the best performing sector being airfreight, which, with annual average growth of 6.7%, will come through another period of relative turbulence in the sector, caused by a new peak in energy costs. There is a possibility that as a smaller European carrier, Brussels Airlines will be absorbed in the next round of regional consolidation, but this will not necessarily be negative for airfreight volume growth, and could conceivably boost it further. Rail freight and pipeline throughput are both expected to grow by an annual average of 2.1%, jut ahead of GDP expansion as a result of new investment in infrastructure. We see road freight lagging slightly behind GDP with average annual growth of 1.9%, reflecting a degree of congestion and the impact of high fuel costs. Sea freight will grow by an annual average of 2.0%, in line with the economy, while inland water transport will bring up the rear with growth of 1.0% per annum. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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