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Philippines Defence and Security Report Q3 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Aug. 18, 2008 - 46 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Philippines Security SWOT
Philippines Defence Industry SWOT
Philippines Political SWOT
Philippines Economic SWOT
Philippines Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings
Table: State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Composite
Regional rank
Trend
Danger rating
Asia Pacific Security Overview
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
Philippines - Terrorist Risk
Philippines - Conflict Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)
The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)
The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)
Table: Philippines Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Piracy
Table: Piracy in South East Asia (1992-2005)
Bilateral Military Relations
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Defence Budget
Table: Philippines Regional Armed Forces
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
Industry Trends And Developments
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Government Expenditure
Table: Philippines Defence Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Philippines Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Arms Corporation of the Philippines (Armscor)
Government Arsenal (GA)
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources

Abstract

The Philippines is subject to multiple insurgent threats from militant Islamic groups including the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), the National People’s Army (NPA) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The geography of the Philippines, an archipelago of some 7,000 islands, makes the effective quarantining of dissident groups almost impossible. The country is politically stable. Even though President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will remain under increasing pressure, we retain our view that Arroyo's position still appears secure. Crucially, Arroyo retains the support of the military - largely ruling out a successful coup - and her allies dominate the House of Representatives, which all but precludes a successful impeachment attempt.

Defence expenditure has received a boost in recent years - mainly in response to the growing security threat - but the government remains heavily reliant on foreign financial assistance, mainly from the US. During 2007, the Philippines’ defence industry remained relatively small compared with other regional defence industries, especially Australia and Singapore. In the final quarter of 2007, a boost was given in the shape of the Department of National Defence (DND) announcing a new initiative to support the local defence industry. The government is seeking to enhance the capabilities of the armed forces through manufacturing its own weapons, presumably to tailor-make weapons that suit counter-insurgency efforts.

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