Commercial Insight: Antihormonal Therapy Cancer Brands - Careful lifecycle management needed to preserve brand dominance

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Aug. 21, 2008 - 183 Pages

Table of Contents

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE

About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Strategic scoping and focus

Datamonitor insight into the antihormonal therapy cancer brands market

Related reports

Upcoming reports

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION

Definition of the cancer market

Antihormonal therapies by ATC class

L2A3 - Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogs

L2B1 - Anti-estrogens

L2B2 - Anti-androgens

L2B3 - Aromatase inhibitors

CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS

Seven major markets

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Sales by country

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Sales by country

Opportunities and threats

US

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Japan

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

5EU

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

France

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Germany

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Italy

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Spain

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

UK

Current market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Future market assessment

Sales by class

Sales by brand

Rest of World snapshot

Current market assessment

Global antihormonals market

Global LHRH analog market

Global anti-estrogens market

Global anti-androgens market

Global aromatase inhibitors market

CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS

Brand analysis by class

Aromatase inhibitors represent the largest class of antihormonal therapy brands

Brand analysis by indication

82% of antihormonal brands are approved for breast cancer

Brand analysis by company

AstraZeneca markets almost half of the antihormonal therapy cancer brands

AstraZeneca

Novartis

Brand analysis by event

Faslodex will experience the greatest number of forecast events across the seven major markets

Brand analysis by sales growth

Anti-estrogen brands are the only antihormonal class showing positive sales growth for 2007-2017

Brand versus generic market snapshot

Seven major markets

Branded products often preferred, despite the availability of cheaper generics

US

Japan

5EU

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

UK

CHAPTER 5 BRAND PROFILES AND FORECASTS

Afema (fadrozole; Novartis)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events*

Brand forecast to 2017

Arimidex (anastrozole; AstraZeneca)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events

Brand forecast to 2017

Arimidex set to maintain its blockbuster and gold-standard status despite patent expiry

Aromasin (exemestane; Pfizer)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events

Brand forecast to 2017

Aromasin fails to match its competitors in-class, although its alternative mechanism of action presents some opportunity

Casodex (bicalutamide; AstraZeneca)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events

Brand forecast to 2017

Upcoming patent expiries set to hamper sales of this class-leading brand

Fareston (toremifene; Orion)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events

Brand forecast to 2017

Faslodex (fulvestrant; AstraZeneca)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events

Brand forecast to 2017

Femara (letrozole; Novartis/Chugai)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events

Brand forecast to 2017

Final results from FACE trial could indicate definitive superiority for Femara over Arimidex

Lupron (leuprorelin; Takeda/Abbott/TAP/Wyeth)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events*

Brand forecast to 2017

Lupron's lifecycle has been extended by the launch of various formulations

Nolvadex (tamoxifen; AstraZeneca)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events*

Brand forecast to 2017

Advent of aromatase inhibitors and high generic competition continues to threaten brand sales

Suprefact (buserelin; Sanofi-Aventis)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events*

Brand forecast to 2017

Zoladex (goserelin; AstraZeneca)

Brand profile

Brand forecast events*

Brand forecast to 2017

Despite equivalent clinical efficacy to Lupron, Zoladex remains the second best-selling LHRH analog

APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

Country-specific assumptions and events

Effect of Medicare Modernization Act in the US

Biennial price cuts in Japan

Generic erosion assumptions

Data definitions, limitations and assumptions

Standard units

Japanese market data

Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends

Forecasts

Forecast methodology

APPENDIX B

Bibliography

List of figures

Abbreviations

Report methodology

About Datamonitor

About Datamonitor Healthcare

Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Definition of the cancer market, 2008

Table 2: Seven major market sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 3: Seven major market sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 4: Individual country sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 5: Seven major market forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017

Table 6: Seven major market forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 7: Individual country forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 8: US sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 9: US sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 10: US forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017

Table 11: US forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 12: Japan sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 13: Japan sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 14: Japan forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Table 15: Japan forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 16: 5EU sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 17: 5EU major market sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 18: 5EU forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017

Table 19: 5EU forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 20: France sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 21: France sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 22: France forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017

Table 23: France forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 24: Germany sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 25: Germany sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 26: Germany forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017

Table 27: Germany forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 28: Italy sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 29: Italy sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 30: Italy forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017

Table 31: Italy forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 32: Spain sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 33: Spain sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 34: Spain forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017

Table 35: Spain forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 36: UK sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Table 37: UK sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Table 38: UK forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017

Table 39: UK forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Table 40: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total antihormonal therapy market sales, 2007

Table 41: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total LHRH analog therapy market sales, 2007

Table 42: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total anti-estrogen therapy market sales, 2007

Table 43: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total anti-androgen therapy market sales, 2007

Table 44: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total aromatase inhibitors therapy market sales, 2007

Table 45: CAGR (%) of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Table 46: CAGR (%) of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Table 47: Afema: key facts

Table 48: Afema forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 49: Arimidex: key facts

Table 50: Arimidex: brand forecast events

Table 51: Arimidex forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 52: Aromasin: key facts

Table 53: Aromasin: brand forecast events

Table 54: Aromasin forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 55: Casodex: key facts

Table 56: Casodex: brand forecast events

Table 57: Casodex forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 58: Fareston: key facts

Table 59: Fareston: brand forecast events

Table 60: Fareston forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 61: Faslodex: key facts

Table 62: Faslodex: brand forecast events

Table 63: Faslodex forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 64: Femara: key facts

Table 65: Femara: brand forecast events

Table 66: Femara forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 67: Lupron: key facts

Table 68: Lupron forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 69: Nolvadex: key facts

Table 70: Nolvadex forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 71: Suprefact: key facts

Table 72: Suprefact forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 73: Zoladex: key facts

Table 74: Zoladex forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017

Table 75: Abbreviations used in DMHC2415 Antihormonal Therapy Cancer Brands

List of Figures

Figure 1: Seven major market sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 2: Seven major market sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Figure 3: Individual country sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007

Figure 4: Seven major market forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 5: Seven major market forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 6: Seven major market forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 7: Seven major market forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2017

Figure 8: Individual country forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017

Figure 9: Individual country forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2017

Figure 10: Summary of opportunities and threats for antihormonal therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets, 2008

Figure 11: US sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 12: US forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 13: US forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 14: US forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 15: Japan sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 16: Japan forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 17: Japan sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 18: Japan forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 19: 5EU sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 20: 5EU forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 21: 5EU forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 22: 5EU forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 23: France sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 24: France forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 25: France forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 26: France forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 27: Germany sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 28: Germany forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 29: Germany forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 30: Germany forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 31: Italy sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 32: Italy forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 33: Italy forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 34: Italy forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 35: Spain sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 36: Spain forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 37: Spain forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 38: Spain forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 39: UK sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007

Figure 40: UK forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 41: UK forecast sales and market share of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2017

Figure 42: UK forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 43: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total antihormonal therapy market sales and market share, 2007

Figure 44: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total LHRH analog therapy market sales and market share, 2007

Figure 45: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total anti-estrogen therapy market sales and market share, 2007

Figure 46: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW anti-androgen therapy market sales and market share, 2007

Figure 47: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total aromatase inhibitors therapy market sales and market share, 2007

Figure 48: Number of approved antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2008

Figure 49: Sales analysis of antihormonal brands by approved oncology indications in the seven major markets, 2008

Figure 50: Analysis of companies by number of approved antihormonal therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets, 2008

Figure 51: Analysis of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by number of forecast events, 2008-2017

Figure 52: CAGR of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017

Figure 53: CAGR (%) of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017

Figure 54: Seven major market sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and value sales by drug class, 2007

Figure 55: US sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and sales by drug class, 2007

Figure 56: Japan sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and sales by drug class, 2007

Figure 57: 5EU sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and sales by drug class, 2007

Figure 58: France sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and sales by drug class, 2007

Figure 59: Germany sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and sales by drug class, 2007

Figure 60: Italy sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and sales by drug class, 2007

Figure 61: Spain sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and sales by drug class, 2007

Figure 62: UK sales of brand and generic antihormonal therapies in terms of volume and sales by drug class, 2007

Abstract

Introduction

Antihormonal therapies are a class of cancer therapeutics that generated branded drug sales of $5.8 billion in the seven major pharmaceutical markets in 2007. However, the relative maturity of the market means that it is has become a highly genericized therapeutic class. Even still, the lack of innovation within this saturated market helps many leading brands retain their success.

Scope

• Analysis of the performance of each of the antihormonal therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets, forecast to 2017
• Analysis and segmentation of the market at various levels including drug class, indication, company and sales growth rate
• Assessment of the leading cancer brands and drug classes to identify key success factors within this sector
• Quantification of the market size of the antihormonal therapy cancer brands in the seven major pharmaceutical markets with a rest of world snapshot

• The antihormonal therapy cancer brands market was worth $5.8 billion in 2007and is forecast to decline in sales to $5.2 billion by 2017. Factors limiting market growth include patent expirations, the increasing entry of generic competitors onto the market and the interchangeable nature of some brands within each class.
• As a class, the aromatase inhibitor brands achieved higher sales than the luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analog, anti-androgen or anti-estrogen brands in 2007, achieving $2.4 billion in the seven major pharmaceutical markets. The success enjoyed by the aromatase inhibitors can be attributed, in part, to their favorable side effect profile.
• Thirteen differently sized pharmaceutical companies are involved in the development of currently approved antihormonal therapy cancer brands. AstraZeneca leads market, with five out of the 11 brands and includes the leading aromatase inhibitor brand Arimidex.

• Quantify the performance of each of the marketed antihormonal therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets over the period 2007 to 2017
• Acquire a detailed account of antihormonal therapy cancer brand dynamics and the events that drive and limit their market growth
• Benchmark the antihormonal therapy cancer brands against their generic products and align their 7MM performance with a rest of world snapshot

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