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Jordan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jul. 28, 2008 - 46 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractData for the fixed-line, internet and mobile telephony sectors of the Bosnian telecoms market have justbeen made available by the Communications Regulatory Agency (CRA) for the first time in several years.While BMI’s previous estimates for the fixed-line telephony and general internet market were close to theactual results, our estimates for the mobile and broadband sectors were rather different and the inclusionof the CRA’s latest data has led us to revise at least some of our forecasts for the next five years.The fixed-line market served just 1.06mn subscribers at the end of 2007, 99% of which were served bythe three regional incumbent operators, BH Telecom, Telekom Srpske, and HT Mostar. This wasslightly short of our previous estimate of 1.1mn, but does prove that there remains some demand forfixed-line services. Further evidence is that all three operators are reporting network expansion andmodernisation initiatives, which should run through to the end of 2008 and beyond. The anticipatedprivatisation of BH Telecom and HT Mostar will also prove beneficial, if these processes are not derailedby political upheavals caused by the Q108 declaration of independence by Kosovo. The mobile market appears to have benefited hugely from the decision to allow the three regionaloperators to compete openly in each others’ service areas from August 2007 onwards. As a result of this,plus increased network deployments and aggressive campaigns promoting cheap prepaid services, thenumber of mobile customers grew by nearly 28% in 2007 to reach a total of 2.45mn. This brought mobilepenetration to 63.5%. We now expect that there will be 3.44mn subscribers by 2012, or 86.9%penetration. 3G licensing is not yet timetabled, though operators are currently deploying the latestequipment that will allow for swift 3G migration when the time comes. However, with GDP per capitarates among the lowest in the region, we believe that uptake will be muted from the foreseeable future,especially given the market’s emphasis on cheap prepaid 2G services.. Data published by the CRA show that the number of broadband subscribers grew by only 113% in 2007to reach less than 85,000 connections, far short of the 170,000 we had been expecting. Partly, this isattributable to our using an incorrect subscriber figure for 2006 as the basis for this forecast. The revised2006 data, coupled with reported growth for 2007 means that we now expect there to be 387,000subscribers by 2012. The most interesting factor to emerge from the CRA’s new figures must surely bethe revelation that cable-based broadband accesses grew faster than xDSL connections during 2007. Itwould seem that the slower than expected uptake of xDSL in 2007 was due to the tardiness of fixed-lineoperators in enhancing their networks and opening up to competitors. There are now 60 ISPs in Bosnia, ofwhich 55 are said to be active. There are also 13 fixed-line operators, some of which are offering IP-basedbroadband services. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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