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Poland Food and Drink Report Q3 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jul. 22, 2008 - 68 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: CEE Food & Drink Ratings - Q308
Poland’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
SWOT Analysis
Food And Drink
Poland Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Mass Grocery Retail
Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland Economic Activity
Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food Consumption
Table: Poland Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Poland Confectionery Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Poland Canned Foods Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Poland Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Confectionery
Canned Food
Trade
Agriculture
Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Drinks indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Hot Drinks Indicators - Historical Data & Forecas 25
Table: Soft Drinks indicators - Historical Data & Forecas 26
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Agriculture At A Glance
Table: Poland Organic Agricultural Data
Agricultural Commodity Price
Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Main MGR Players
Table: Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Value Of Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2007
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players In Poland’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Food And Drink
Table: Key Players - Poland's Food & Drink Sector 2007 Estimates
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro Polska
Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins)
Food
Nestlé Polska
Drink
Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC)
Carlsberg Polska
Hoop
Deep US Recession Scenario
Global Scenario
Table: World GDP Growth
Table: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth, and Private Consumption Growth
Table: Eurozone GDP Growth
Table: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth
Table: China GDP Growth
Table: Mexico GDP Growth
Table: Africa GDP Growth
CEE Food & Drink Scenario
Table: Impact Of Deep Us Recession On Total Food Consumption (US$Bn) In Selected CEE Markets - Cumulative US$ Impact Over 5yr
Forecast Period
Appendix
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing

Abstract

Poland represents a moderately attractive destination for investment, as illustrated by its position in thesixth place in BMI’s Q308 Business Environment Ranking table surveying 14 markets in Central andEastern Europe (CEE). Poland benefits from strong consumption rates and a large population, as well as avast agricultural sector and an attractive business environment. On the downside, consumption levels percapita continue to lag behind Western European standards, primarily due to considerably lower GDP percapita. Nevertheless, the market continues to exhibit considerable dynamism, as illustrated by a numberof deals in the past few months. On the other hand, however, some companies are deciding to leave thecountry.

One of the most notable among all industry developments is the April 2008 merger between CzechKofola Holding and Hoop of Poland, which created a regional drinks major under the name Kofola-Hoop Group. The new entity, now present in five CEE markets, will be looking to strengthen its positionfurther through acquisitions, despite its decision to exit Hungary, following a drop in sales and recorded2007 losses.

In the food sector, US ingredients producer Cargill, and Solae - an alliance between DuPont and Bunge- both confirmed their intention to increase their presence in the country. The former completed theUS$35mn expansion of the Polish wheat processing factory, in response to rising consumer demandacross Europe. The latter plans to launch new soy-based products in the country, aiming to take advantageof the increased interest in healthy foods. At present, Solae’s products are mostly used in Poland for theirgelling and emulsifying properties in meat production, but as this market reaches maturity, Solae islooking for new avenues of growth.

In terms of the Polish mass grocery retail (MGR) scene, the intensification of competition has alreadyresulted in consolidation, especially following recent acquisition of the Ahold Polska store network byFrench retailer Carrefour. This followed the deal between Germany’s Tengelmann and Portuguesediscount retailer Jerónimo Martins, which was already the leading discount operator in Poland.

Moreover, in April 2008, UK retail company Tesco announced a new wave of expansions for the Polishand Slovakian markets, as it invests further in strengthening its position in these countries, while Germandiscounter Aldi finally opened its first stores in Poland. Given such developments, other companies arerumoured to be looking to exit the market, with Schwarz Group-run retailer Lidl reportedly seeking abuyer for its 260-strong discount store network in May 2008.

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