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Serbia Food and Drink Report Q3 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jul. 22, 2008 - 74 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: CEE Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - Q308
Serbia’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Table: Global Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings - Serbia’s Global Peer Group
SWOT Analysis
Food And Drink
Serbia Food & Drink Industry SWOT
Mass Grocery Retail
Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Serbia - Economic Activity
Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food Consumption
Table: Serbia Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Serbia Value/Volume Sales Of Confectionery - Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Serbia Value/Volume Sales Of Canned Food - Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Serbia Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Balance (US$mn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Food Production
Confectionery
Canned Food
Trade
Agriculture
Drink
Industry Forecast
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Serbia Beverage Sectors - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Serbia Hot Drinks - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Serbia Soft Drinks - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Hot Drinks
Soft Drinks
Agriculture At A Glance
Table: Serbia Agricultural Sub-Sector Production (tonnes) 32
Table: Serbia Cereal Production - 2005
Table: Serbia Organic Agricultural - Historical Data (20 32
Table: Serbia Meat Industry Import And Export Data, 200 33
Agricultural Commodity Price
Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Serbia Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Mercator - Private Label As % of Product Sales In Foreign Markets
Table: Structure Of Serbia’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Serbia’s Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Retail Format (US$mn)
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players In Serbia And Montenegro's Mass Grocery Retail Sector (2007)
Food And Drink
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Food & Drink Sector (2007 41
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Mercator
Veropoulos
Delta Holding
Metro
Food
Bambi
Mladost-Sid
Mondi Serbia
Drink
Coca-Cola / IBP Beograd AD
Carlsberg Serbia / Pivara Celarevo
Apatinska Pivara (InBev)
Arteska International Company
BB Minaqua
Knjaz Miloš
Agriculture
Sunoko
Deep US Recession Scenario
Global Scenario
Table: World GDP Growth
Table: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth, and Private Consumption Growth
Table: Eurozone GDP Growth
Table: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth
Table: China GDP Growth
Table: Mexico GDP Growth
Table: Africa GDP Growth
CEE Food & Drink Scenario
Table: Impact Of Deep Us Recession On Total Food Consumption (US$Bn) In Selected CEE Markets - Cumulative US$ Impact Over 5yr
Forecast Period
Appendix
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing

Abstract

Despite its turbulent recent history, Serbia occupies a commendable tenth place in BMI’s Food and DrinkRatings for Q308, which assesses a market’s attractiveness to industry investors in comparison to 13 othercountries in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Serbia’s potential is recognised by foreigncompanies, which are increasingly seeking to escape the highly saturated and competitive markets ofWestern Europe. To this end, Dutch Heineken purchased Serbian brewer Pivara MB, becoming thethird-largest player in the beer sector and heralding an increased level of competition between globalbrewers in Serbia.

Other foreign beverages majors are investing in Serbia. In January 2008, the Coca-Cola HellenicBottling Company (CCH) stated that it would cut its annual carbon dioxide emissions by about 20% bythe end of 2009 through the construction of 15 energy efficient combined heat and power (CHP) plants,including one in Serbia, which offers a low-cost manufacturing base.

The above situation is largely reflected in the MGR sector. Foreign companies, led by SlovenianMercator, are emerging as key players in the country’s retail. Companies from further afield in Europe,most recently Spar Austria, are also increasingly expressing their interest in the Serbian MGR sector.Economic development, the brand-consciousness of the Serbian consumer and marketing initiatives willcounterbalance the limited spending power of the average family to produce a steady upward trend inretail values. The creation of new large-scale outlets and modern shopping centres will in particularbenefit this trend, despite the questionability of certain construction developments, such as the allegedinfringement of building plans by Mercator.

Generally speaking, Serbia’s well-educated workforce, low production costs and privatisation initiativesoffer plenty of opportunities, with the government also committed to attracting foreign direct investment(FDI). Additionally, strong growth forecasts and a lack of market saturation represent a solid basis forexpansion. However, the drawbacks to doing business in Serbia are evident in other areas, mainly itspolitical climate, corruption and a lack of transparency.

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