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France Food and Drink Report Q3 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jul. 21, 2008 - 71 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q3 2008
France’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - France’s Peer Group
SWOT Analysis
Food And Drink
France Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Mass Grocery Retail
France Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: France - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food Consumption
Table: France Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Prepared Food / Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Private Label
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Food Production
Organic
Prepared Food
Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Foreca 29
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Agriculture At A Glance
Table: France Agricultural Sub-Sector Production
Table: France Organic Agricultural Data
Table: France Dairy Production, Farming & Consumption 34
Agricultural Commodity Price
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: France Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of France's MGR Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of France MGR Market - Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Average Value Of Sales Per Outlet (US$mn) By Format 2006
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Food And Drink
Table: Key Players In France's Food & Drink Sector - 2006
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players In France's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - 2007
Table: Key Players In France's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - 2007 (continued)
Company Analysis
Food
Groupe Danone
Nestlé France
Drink
LVMH Group (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton)
Pernod Ricard
Mass Grocery Retail
Carrefour
Groupe Auchan
Groupe Casino
Deep US Recession Scenario
Global Scenario
Table: World GDP Growth
Table: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth And Private Consumption Growth
Table: Eurozone GDP Growth
Table: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth
Table: China GDP Growth
Table: Mexico GDP Growth
Table: Africa GDP Growth
Western Europe Recession Scenario
Table: Impact Of Deep US Recession On Total Food Consumption In Selected Western European Markets - Cumulative Difference Between
Core And Recession Scenarios (%)
Appendix
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing

Abstract

As discussed in BMI's newly-published Q308 French Food & Drink Report, the French wine industry isset to be among the most highly impacted by the European Union (EU) wine reforms now formallyapproved by the Council of the European Union. Although, sales of the best quality French wine haveincreased rapidly over the past few years, partly thanks to growing demand in emerging markets, Francealso produces a large amount of low quality table wine, which often struggles to find a market. This partof the industry may shrink significantly after the full package of reforms is implemented.

2007 was a record year for Burgundy and Champagne - two of the most highly prized and expensiveFrench wines. According to the Bureau Interprofessional des Vins de Bourgogne (BIVB), exports ofburgundy over the year increased by 14% in volume terms and generated a turnover of EUR718mn(US$1.1bn) - a rise of 21%. Meanwhile the Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de Champagne (CIVC)reports that exports of champagne in 2007 were up by 7.3% on the previous year and set a new record.

These record sales figures were thanks growing demand for high quality French wine in emergingmarkets such as China and Russia along with sustained growth in more traditional markets such as theUK and Japan. However, so far in 2008 there are signs that this rate of growth may have slowed - aspokesman for BIVB reports that exports of burgundy slowed in March and April 2008 meanwhile theUnion des Maisons de Champagne (UMC) reports that in the first quarter of 2008 sales of Champagnewere flat compared to the same period in 2007. This is largely due to a slump in demand in the US andreflects how closely premium wine sales are tied to economic prosperity.

Despite this slowdown in 2008, the long term prospects for top-end French wine look very strong thanksto the growing demand for premium European food and drink products in emerging markets. However, atthe bottom-end of the industry things look less rosy and the package of wine reforms agreed by the EUcouncil is likely to lead to a significant decline in production.

The reforms mean that EU subsidies for wine producers will be phased out by 2012 and inefficient anduncompetitive producers will be encouraged to leave the industry via a three-year voluntary grubbing-upscheme that will pay producers to decrease their number of vines. France's Languedoc Roussillon wineregion is likely to be among the worst hit by these reforms as it generates one of the lowest incomes perhectare in the EU. The wide scale destruction of vineyards, although economically sensible, is likely to bean emotive issue in France, as the countryside will be significantly altered. However, the reforms will alsomean the scrapping of planting rights that restrict the planting of new vines. This could potentially lead toa massive increase in planting in popular regions such as Bordeaux and Burgundy, and production of highquality French wines could therefore increase significantly

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