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Turkey Autos Report Q3 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jul. 15, 2008 - 58 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractA strong recovery in the domestic car market coupled with surging exports should ensure furtherinvestment in additional capacity in the Turkish automotive industry, putting the country on course tobecome of the world’s top 10 car-producing countries within five years, according to BMI’s latest TurkeyAutomotives Report.The recovery of domestic sales began with a particularly strong Q407, which has carried over into 2008based on the latest data. Data for the first four months of 2008 show that sales grew 21.6% year-on-year(y-o-y) to 179,694 units, including a 30.4% rise in car sales to 104,244 units. Consequently, BMI hasrevised its forecasts for 2008 and the years ahead. Overall sales growth for 2008 is now forecast at 12.9%,with car sales growth of 11% and commercial vehicles sales growth of 15.3%. Economic growth and realinterest rates should help sustain sales growth over the next five years. The recovery in the Turkish automotive market should eliminate fears of the effects of the automotivemarket slump on domestic production. It is highly likely that the production of light vehicles will reach100% capacity by the end of 2008; in the first four months, production was operating at 99% capacity andreached 102% in April alone, up from 91% in 2007. However, there is considerable room for growth inthe truck and midibus segments, which were operating at 53% and 63% of capacity respectively in theJanuary-April period. Even without any further capacity expansion, Turkey’s automotive industry iscapable of producing 1.46mn units per annum at current capacity. With automotive capacity set to expandby up to 700,000 units over the next five years, BMI expects automotive production, excluding tractors,to reach between 1.8-2.0mn units by 2012, making Turkey a major automotive producer. Light vehicle production will be boosted further by planned increases in capacity by Ford Otosan, Tofasand Honda as well as investment projects by new entrants to the Turkish automotive market, such asChina’s Chery. Ford Otosan has raised its production forecast from 310,000 to 330,000 units in 2008, buthas retained its 2009 target of 360,000 units. Much of the extra capacity will be dedicated to productionof Ford's Transit Connect van, which the company plans to export to North America from mid-2009. Tofas is planning to increase production from 215,000 units in 2007 to 350,000-360,000 units in 2008and 400,000 units in 2009. Most of the additional output will be exported, but the carmaker also plans toraise its domestic sales by 15% to around 90,000 units in 2008. Honda Turkiye is planning to investUS$100mn to raise its Gebze-based plant’s annual production capacity from 30,000 units to 50,000, withthe possibility of further expansion to 100,000 units by 2009. Also in Q208, Chinese carmaker Cheryannounced plans to produce vehicles in Turkey, intending to use the country as a springboard into theEuropean Union (EU). Chery is joining with local producer Mermerler Group to produce the Tiggo,Kimo and Alia models, but eventually hopes to open its own plant within two years with an initial annualproduction capacity of 100,000 units, 50% of which will be exported to Europe. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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