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Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: Jul. 11, 2008 - 70 Pages
Table of Contents
Executive Summary Business Environment Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Ratings Q308 India’s Food & Drink Business Environment RatingTable: Singapore’s Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Peer GroupSWOT Analysis Food And Drink India Food & Drink Industry SWOTMass Grocery Retail India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOTMacroeconomic OutlookTable: India Economic ActivityFoodIndustry Forecast ScenarioFood ConsumptionTable: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ConfectioneryTable: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & ForecastsProcessed Food Table: Processed Food Industry Indicators - Historical Data & ForecastsTrade Table: India Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts Industry DevelopmentsMarket Overview AgricultureFood Processing Drink Industry Forecast ScenarioHot Drinks Alcoholic Drinks Soft Drinks India Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value/Volume Sales Historical & Forecasts Industry DevelopmentsMarket Overview Soft Drinks Alcoholic Drinks Agriculture At A GlanceTable: India Agricultural Sub-Sector Production (‘000 tonnes) Historical Data Table: India Agricultural Sub-Sector Output By Value (US$mn) Table: India Organic Agricultural Data Table: India Dairy Industry Data, 2006 Table: India Rural/Urban Population BreakdownAgricultural Commodity PriceRetailIndustry Forecast ScenarioTable: India MGR Sales By Format (US$bn) Historical Data & Forecasts Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format Historical Data & ForecastsIndustry DevelopmentsMarket Overview Table: Structure Of India’s MGR Market By Estimated Number Of OutletsTable: Structure Of India’s MGR Market Sales By Format (US$mn)Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format 2007Competitive LandscapeKey PlayersFood And Drink Table: Key Players in India's Food And Drink Sector, 2007 Mass Grocery Retail Table: Key Players In India's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2007 Company AnalysisFood Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation (Amul Dairy)DrinkUnited Breweries Limited (UBL) Coca-Cola India Mass Grocery Retail Pantaloon Retail IndiaRPG RetailDeep US Recession Scenario Global ScenarioTable: World GDP GrowthTable: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth And Private Consumption Growth Table: Eurozone GDP GrowthTable: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth Table: China GDP GrowthTable: Mexico GDP GrowthTable: Africa GDP GrowthAsia Pacific Food & Drink Scenario Table: Impact of Deep US Recession On Total Food Consumption (US$bn)In Selected Asia Pacific Markets - Cumulative US$ Impact Over 5-yr Forecast PeriodAppendix Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Ratings Methodology Ratings OverviewRatings SystemIndicatorsLimits Of Potential ReturnsRisks To Realisation Of Potential Returns WeightingWeightingBMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary Food & Drink Mass Grocery Retail BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Sourcing
AbstractWith India’s food industry witnessing explosive growth in line with the country’s on-going economicdevelopment, there has been a marked move towards trying to get more out of the country’s immenseagricultural industry. Despite being the world’s leading producer of cattle, milk, tea and pulses and thesecond largest producer of fruit, vegetables, rice, wheat and sugarcane worldwide, India accounts for just1.5% of global processed food trade. The government estimates that the cost of boosting this figure to just3% would be US$25bn, with India’s primary focused agricultural and food supply chain having todramatically reconsider standard industry practices in order to boost secondary output.
Fortunately, as BMI examines in its newly-published India Food & Drink Report for Q108, thegovernment is not alone in attempting to fund this seismic shift. A vast population, steady urbanisationand GDP growth that BMI forecasts at 7.9% annually to 2012, have helped ensure that multinationalinvestment interest in the market is massive. More encouraging than this is that multinationals alone arenot being left to drive development; local corporations are also playing a huge role in the process.Most notable has been the involvement of Indian companies in the food and beverage industry, whoseprimary business interest was formerly elsewhere. Over the past 12 months this has seen fast-movingconsumer goods manufacturer Hindustan Lever - 52%-owned by Dutch giant Unilever - attempt togrow its food division, via the heavy marketing of popular brands, such as Knorr and Lipton, and reduceits dependence on its health and personal care products. Perhaps even more significantly than this,burgeoning food sales have seen cigarette industry number one and two - ITC and Godfrey - launch newfood products in a bid to establish themselves as key players within this industry.
Looking at the industry more broadly, almost all of India’s leading conglomerates - Tata, Reliance,RPG, Aditya Birla etc - are now participating in the industry to some degree, many having chosen theexplosive grocery retail as a starting point. Likewise, former food category specialists, such as AmulDairy, are now looking to become industry generalists in a bid to broaden their growth prospects (Amulhas recently announced its interest in further non-dairy snack food launches).
Investment from all of these companies, as they battle to boost sales and build market share, should helpto lift India’s contribution to global processed food trade in the long term. In the short-to-medium term,the impact will be on internal processed food sales. Included in BMI’s India Food & Drink Report for thefirst time this quarter are our forecasts for the country’s processed food industry. To 2012, we expectprocessed food output to increase by 44.2% to US$90.1bn, while packaged food sales in the countryclimb by 67.5% to US$21.7bn. On a per capita basis, BMI is forecasting a per capita packaged foodspending increase of 56.5% to US$18.06 in 2012.
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