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HDTV 2008: Global Uptake, Strategies and Business Models

Published by: Screen Digest

Published: Jul. 1, 2008 - 230 Pages


Table of Contents


Introduction - Definitions

Executive Summary

Part 1: HDTV Global overview


HDTV roll-out and market forecasts

Availability of HD content

HD on digital terrestrial television

HD display readiness

HD-enabled homes

Pay TV operators


HDTV content

HDTV channels

Hi-def home video

Hi-def gaming

Online HD content


HDTV business case

Typology of HDTV benefits

Factors influencing optimal HD strategy

The demand for HDTV


MPEG4 and HDTV business case

MPEG4/HD routes

MPEG4 switchover

Business case of HD simulcasts


Part 2: HDTV market profiles and player profiles


Western Europe: Key markets

Benelux markets

France

Germany

Italy

Nordic markets

Spain

United Kingdom


EMEA: Other markets

Austria

Czech Republic

Estonia

Ireland

Israel

Poland

Portugal

Russia

Switzerland

Turkey


Asia Pacific

Australia

China

Hong Kong

Japan

New Zealand

Singapore

South Korea


North America

Canada

USA


Notes on other markets

South Africa

Thailand

Taiwan


Annex 1 : High Definition 'for dummies'

Annex 2: Glossary

Annex 3: Detailed forecasts

Annex 4: High Definition channels lists



Tables and charts

Scope of the report


Introduction - Definitions


Executive Summary

HDTV uptake: Key figures


Part 1: HDTV overview


HDTV roll-out and market forecasts

Availability of HD content by market and by platform (details)

Availability of HD content by platform (summary)

Cable operators and HDTV (selection)

Bandwidth required for HDTV

TV platforms and their capacity to deliver HDTV

IPTV operators and HDTV (selection)

Satellite operators and HDTV (selection)

Pros and cons of free-to-air HDTV over

DTT (UK case)

HD penetration concepts

Chronology of TV innovations

HD-ready households (000s)

HD-ready households (%)

Western Europe HD uptake 2007

Western Europe HD uptake 2012

Western Europe HD uptake (2005-2012)

Western Europe HD uptake (2007)

Western Europe HD uptake (2012)

HD-enabled homes Western Europe 2005-2012: pay TV v. free TV

Global HD uptake 2005-2012

Key success factors for HD markets uptake

HD-enabled households (000s)

HD-enabled households (%)

Digital TV and HDTV migration in Western Europe

Digital TV and HDTV migration in the US

European pay TV operators: HD line-up and performance at end - 2007

Key HD operators (analysed in Part 2)

HD subscribers for major pay TV operators (selection)

HD conversion rate for major pay TV operators (selection)

HDTV channels available by delivery mechanism

HDTV channels by satellite system


HDTV content

HDTV channels by genre and launch year

HDTV channels by genre and launch year

HDTV channels by genre and launch year

HDTV channels by country and launch year

HDTV channels by business model and launch year

HDTV channels by business model and launch year

HDTV channels by pay TV operator and launch year (selection)

HDTV channels by pay TV operator and launch year (selection)

Number of HD channels available by country

HDTV channels by pay TV operator and launch year (selection)

HD Channels in Europe

Home video v. broadcast TV: the race for higher quality

BD player/recorder penetration

BD games console penetration

BD player/recorder penetration of HDTV households

BD games console penetration of HDTV households

HD console installed base market share by territory

USA: Installed base by platform

HD consoles in % of all installed base

Installed base by platform (Japan)

Installed base by platform (Europe)

Installed base by platform (Global)

Sales of HD consoles (global)

Installed base of HD consoles (global)

Categories of benefits associated with HDTV


HDTV business case

Revenues from HD boxes and HD fees

HD line-up and pricing (selection)

The optimal HD timing and trade-off etween costs and opportunities


The MPEG4 and HDTV business case

HDTV and MPEG4, the virtuous circle

Basic cost assumptions (default model)

The 'sit-back' scenario (spontaneous switchover over 10 years)

Switching mid-sized platform in year 4: a €178m loss

Switching mid-sized platform in year 7: a €102m gain

Switching mid-sized platform in year 4: a €178m loss

Switching mid-sized platform in year 7: a €102m gain

Switching a small platform in year 3: a €227m gain

Switching big platform in year 4: a €586m loss

Outcome of the cost-benefit modelling (transponder cost €4m in year 1)

Outcome of the cost-benefit modelling

Revenues and costs of an HD simulcast

Number of subscribers to break-even an HD simulcast


Part 2: HDTV market profiles and player profiles


Western Europe: Key markets

Key data: Benelux

Key HD forecasts: Benelux

Key data: France

HD channels available

Native HD output: TF1/M6 roadmaps

Native HD output on TF1

Range of set-top boxes of Canal Plus

HD DTT plans in France by multiplex

Numericable's set-top box range

Key HD forecasts: France

Key data: Germany

Comparing Premiere HD and Sky HD

Premiere box pricing

Key HD forecasts: Germany

Key data: Italy

Key HD forecasts: Italy

Sky Life's HD packaging

Key data: Nordic

Canal Digital Boxes

Key data: Denmark

Key HD forecasts: Denmark

Key data: Finland

Key HD forecasts: Finland

Key data: Norway

Key HD forecasts: Norway

Key data: Sweden

Key HD forecasts: Sweden

Key data: Spain

Key HD forecasts: Spain

Key data: United Kingdom

HDTV feeds in the UK

Sky+ and Sky HD comparison (quarters following launch)

Sky HD quarterly net addition since launch

Sky HD subscriber forecasts

DTT multiplexes in the UK

Key HD forecasts: United Kingdom


EMEA: Other markets

Key data: Austria

Key HD forecasts: Austria

Key data: Czech Republic

Key HD forecasts: Czech Republic

Key data: Estonia

Key HD forecasts: Estonia

Key data: Ireland

Key HD forecasts: Ireland

Key data: Israel

HDTV channels available in Israel at end - 2007

Key HD forecasts: Israel

Key data: Poland

Key HD forecasts: Poland

Key data: Portugal

Key HD forecasts: Portugal

Key data: Russia

Key HD forecasts: Russia

Key data: Switzerland

Cablecom box range pricing

Key HD forecasts: Switzerland

Key data: Turkey

Key HD forecasts: Turkey


Asia Pacific

Key data: Australia

Key HD forecasts: Australia

Key data: China

Key HD forecasts: China

Key data: Hong Kong

Key HD forecasts: Hong Kong

Key data: Japan

Key forecasts: Japan

Key data: New Zealand

Key HD forecasts: New Zealand

Key data: Singapore

Key HD forecasts: Singapore

Key data: South Korea

Korea's mandatory HD DTT tuner roadmap

Key HD forecasts: South Korea


North America

Key data: Canada

Cogeco's HD Box range and prices

Key HD forecasts: Canada

Key data: USA

DirecTV packages and box cost

DirecTV set-top box range

Dish Network HD options

Dish Network set-top box range (overview)

International TV brands - HD channels distribution overseas (selection)

Key HD forecasts: USA


Notes on other markets


Annex 1 : High Definition 'for dummies'

Comparison of TV format (signals and displays)

HD has four times more pixels than SD


Annex 2: Glossary


Annex 3: Detailed forecasts

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Benelux

Canada

China

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Hong Kong

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Netherlands

Nordic (4 countries)

Norway

New Zealand

Poland

Portugal

Russia

South Korea

Singapore

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

USA


Annex 4: High Definition channels lists


List of European HDTV channels


List of US HDTV channels

Abstract

Screen Digest has identified three critical success factors that will support the successful migration to HDTV: penetration of HD-ready displays, supply of HD content and HD channels, and the availability of HD broadcast on a variety of television platforms. The report shows that all these are now cleared for a sustainable migration to HD in the long term.

In the next five years, HDTV will mainly develop as a pay TV product in Europe, and mostly a satellite product. However after analogue switch-offs are completed between 2010 and 2012, and digital free-to-air platforms are upgraded to more advanced technologies, they will end-up with more bandwidth capacity and become more widely accessible. It will kick-start the next phase of HDTV migration as HD becomes the mainstream and ultimately, the standard form of free television around the middle of next decade. In ten years, nobody will ever refer to 'high definition' as high definition will be everywhere. However, in the short term, HD broadcast offering in Europe remains patchy, for three reasons:
  • Lack of HD on free-to-air platforms: only Sweden has already launched HD on free DTT and only France and the UK are likely to follow in the short-mid-term; 'Freesat HD' despite its name has a disappointing HD line-up and is not likely to make a strong market impact in the UK.
  • Lack of local HD channels in many countries: pay TV operators relying mostly on US HD channels supply so far.
  • Lack of ambition from a number of European pay TV operators.
HD has not been pushed hard enough yet by many of Europe's pay TV operators. Paradoxically it has been used heavily as a marketing tool, but has not been followed through with the delivery of HD channels - for example, Premiere in Germany still only offers two HD channels and its HD uptake is sluggish. By contrast BSkyB has now 17 HD channels covering all genres, and on the back of this has signed up almost 500,000 subscribers in less than two years - the fastest take-up of any new BSkyB product. There is a clear connection between the depth of the HD offerings and the take up of HD by subscribers.

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