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Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.
Published: Jun. 1, 2008 - 123 Pages
Table of Contents
- Issues in the Market
- Mintel asks
- Market definitions
- Secured lending
- Unsecured lending
- Abbreviations
- Market in Brief
- The mortgage market is braced for a sharp fall
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while the consumer credit market grinds to halt
- Even more difficult times ahead
- As the mortgage market contracts, competitive pressures ease
- So what are mortgage holders planning to do over the coming year?
- Mortgage and credit card debts are the most common
- Figure 1: Proportion of UK adults with various types of debt, 2007 and 2008
- A quarter of mortgage holders owe more than £100,000
- Figure 2: Amount of outstanding secured debt, 2007 and 2008
- Unsecured borrowers generally owe less than they did a year ago
- Figure 3: Amount of outstanding unsecured debt, 2007 and 2008
- People feel worse off now than two years ago
- Figure 4: Current financial situation, 2006 and 2008
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but there has been a slight fall in those with debt worries
- Figure 5: Agreement with statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, 2006 and 2008
- Household Debt in Context
- Key points
- The debt mountain
- Figure 6: Amount of household debt outstanding, secured and unsecured, January 1993-April 2008
- Credit cards used to pay the mortgage
- More feeling the pinch
- Net lending set to fall sharply in 2008
- Figure 7: Net lending as a proportion of personal disposable income (non-seasonally adjusted), at current prices, 2000-08
- Debt-to-income ratio continues to move upwards
- Figure 8: The value of personal sector debt as a proportion of total PDI, at current prices, 1998-2008
- Other indicators also paint a gloomy picture
- Putting debt into context
- Factors fuelling over-indebtedness
- Borrowings versus savings
- Figure 9: Population segmentation, according to possession of unsecured debts and savings, by gender, age, socio-economic group and lifestage, April 2008
- Being in debt is an affliction of youth
- FTBs are becoming a rare breed
- Changing Market Environment
- Key points
- Economic trials ahead
- Reduced spending to slow economic activity
- Figure 10: GDP annual growth and proportion of workforce unemployed - UK, 1999-2008
- Inflation worries
- Figure 11: Average annual changes in the bank base rate, CPI and RPI - UK, 2000-08
- Stagflation
- Consumer confidence at lowest level since the early 1990s
- Figure 12: Changes in headline consumer confidence - monthly and 12-month rolling average, May 2001-May 2008
- Spending curtailed as people take a more cautious approach to their finances
- Figure 13: Intentions to save and spend in the next 12 months, 2001-08
- The Crunch Effect
- Key points
- The origins of the credit crisis
- Liquidity dries up
- Bank run on Northern Rock
- Sharp reduction in supply of mortgages
- Lenders close the doors on first-time buyers
- Thousands of credit card applications turned down every day
- Bank of England launches scheme to improve liquidity
- Banks face big losses
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and some turn to their shareholders to raise cash
- Mortgage and loan providers cut back on advertising
- Figure 14: Quarterly advertising expenditure on credit/store cards, personal loans and mortgage products, Q2 2006-Q1 2008
- The Mortgage Lending Market
- Key points
- All change
- Figure 15: Gross secured lending, by loan type - illustration, 2003-13
- Gross mortgage advances to fall by a fifth in 2008
- Figure 16: Gross secured lending, by type of loan, 2000-08
- Slow recovery forecast
- Figure 17: Forecast of gross secured lending, 2008-13
- Factors incorporated
- The Consumer Credit Market
- Key points
- The party’s over
- Figure 18: Gross consumer credit lending - illustration, 2003-13
- Borrowers show greater preference for credit cards
- Figure 19: Gross consumer credit lending, 2000-08
- A stagnant market forecast for the short term
- Figure 20: Forecast of gross consumer credit lending, 2008-13
- Factors incorporated
- The Consumer - Ownership of Lending Products
- Key points
- About Mintel’s consumer survey
- A nation of borrowers
- Figure 21: Types of outstanding debt held, by gender, April 2008
- 15 million people have a mortgage
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while 22 million have built up unsecured debts
- Gender bias
- Credit cards are a popular option for those seeking credit
- Debt consolidation remains a niche area
- Store cards lose their shine
- Slight increase in the proportion with debts over the past year
- Figure 22: Types of outstanding debt held, 2007 and 2008
- Those aged 25-44 have the highest penetration of outstanding debts
- Figure 23: Types of outstanding debt held, by product type and age group, April 2008
- Financial pressures are high during the family years
- Figure 24: Types of outstanding debt held, by product type and lifestage, April 2008
- ABs are most likely to have a mortgage
- Figure 25: Types of outstanding debt held, by product type and socio-economic group, April 2008
- Two thirds in overdraft also have credit or store card debts
- Figure 26: Types of outstanding debt held - cross-analysis, April 2008
- A quarter of borrowers make use of multiple credit facilities
- Figure 27: Number of types of outstanding debt held (repertoire), April 2008
- Figure 28: Types of outstanding debt held, by repertoire, April 2008
- Mortgagors and mid- to high earners tend to make use of several borrowing facilities
- Figure 29: Repertoire of outstanding debt held, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, tenure and gross annual household income, April 2008
- The Consumer - Level of Debt
- Key points
- One in 20 mortgage holders owe more than £200,000
- Figure 30: Amount of outstanding secured debt, 2007 and 2008
- The under-45s tend to have the highest mortgage balances
- Figure 31: Amount of outstanding secured debt, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, working status, household income and tenure, April 2008
- Around one in eight borrowers have unsecured debts of over £10,000
- Figure 32: Amount of outstanding unsecured debt, 2007 and 2008
- Those with large credit balances tend to use multiple borrowing facilities
- Figure 33: Types of unsecured debt owned, by amounts outstanding, April 2008
- Pre-/no family individuals most susceptible to running up credit
- Figure 34: Amount of outstanding unsecured debt, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, working status, household income and tenure, April 2008
- Two in five mortgage holders have insurance protection
- Figure 35: Ownership of payment protection insurance products, by types of debt owned, April 2008
- The Consumer - Current Financial Situation
- Key points
- People are having to be more careful with their money
- Figure 36: Current financial situation, 2006 and 2008
- The under-35s are the most hard-up
- Figure 37: Current financial situation, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, tenure and household income, April 2008
- Those with multiple debts tend to feel worse off
- Figure 38: Current financial situation, by number of types of debt owned (repertoire), April 2008
- Those who are ‘always in debt’ or ‘struggling’ are least likely to have a mortgage
- Figure 39: Types of outstanding debt owned, by current financial situation, April 2008
- Wealthy mortgage holders can more easily cope with a large mortgage
- Figure 40: Amount of outstanding secured debt, by current financial situation, April 2008
- Those struggling have the highest debt levels
- Figure 41: Amount of outstanding unsecured debt, by current financial situation, April 2008
- The Consumer - Saving, Borrowing and Managing Money
- Key points
- Merely half of all adults think they’re good at managing money
- Figure 42: Agreement with statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, April 2008
- Nearly 3 million have debt worries
- People appear to be less sure of their financial capabilities than in the recent past
- Figure 43: Agreement with statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, 2006 and 2008
- Debt worries plague the most hard-up
- Figure 44: Agreement with statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, by current financial position, April 2008
- Those with multiple debts tend to keep a close eye on their bank balance
- Figure 45: Agreement with statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, by number of debt types owned (repertoire), April 2008
- Reckless youth
- Figure 46: Agreement with statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, by gender and lifestage, April 2008
- Wising up with age
- Figure 47: Agreement with statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, by age group, April 2008
- Figure 48: Agreement with selected statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, by age group, April 2008
- ABs are the most financially responsible
- Figure 49: Agreement with statements about saving, borrowing and managing money, by socio-economic group, April 2008
- Demographic analysis summary
- Segmenting the population according to their approach to money
- Figure 50: Money management clusters, April 2008
- Figure 51: Composition of money management clusters, April 2008
- Credit-reliant
- Money Monitors
- Savvy Savers
- Cool & Aloof
- Accountants
- Credit-averse
- More than a quarter of Credit-reliant individuals are in overdraft
- Figure 52: Types of outstanding debts held, by cluster, April 2008
- Savvy Savers are in the strongest financial position
- Figure 53: Current financial situation, by cluster, April 2008
- A fifth of Credit-reliant individuals have run up unsecured debts of over £10,000
- Figure 54: Amount of outstanding unsecured debt, by cluster, April 2008
- Accountants have the highest mortgage balances, on average
- Figure 55: Amount of outstanding secured debt, by cluster, April 2008
- The Consumer - Attitudes and Expectations
- Key points
- A third of people expect house prices to fall over the next year
- Figure 56: Agreement with statements about house prices, expected borrowing activity and related concerns, by tenure, April 2008
- A quarter plan to curtail their spending
- Owning property makes people feel more secure
- Concerns about the economy are shared by young and old alike
- Figure 57: Agreement with statements about house prices, expected borrowing activity and related concerns, by age group, April 2008
- The less we earn, the more insecure we feel
- Figure 58: Agreement with statements about house prices, expected borrowing activity and related concerns, by gross annual household income, April 2008
- One in ten who are ‘struggling’ plan to borrow (more)
- Figure 59: Agreement with statements about house prices, expected borrowing activity and related concerns, by current financial situation, April 2008
- Those with multiple debts are keen to curb their spending
- Figure 60: Agreement with statements about house prices, expected borrowing activity and related concerns, by number of types of debt owned (repertoire), April 2008
- Credit-reliant depend more on friends and family for financial back-up
- Figure 61: Agreement with statements about house prices, expected borrowing activity and related concerns, by money management clusters, April 2008
- Further analysis
- Appendix 1: Demographic Analysis of Debt Ownership
- Figure 62: Types of outstanding debt held, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, and region, April 2008
- Figure 63: Types of outstanding debt held, by working status, household income, tenure, ACORN category, new technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, April 2008
- Appendix 2: Profile of Money Management Clusters
- Figure 64: Clusters, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, region and tenure, April 2008
- Figure 65: Clusters, by working status, household income, ACORN category, new technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, April 2008
AbstractBeing in debt is no longer a social taboo, but rather an accepted and integral part of modern life. Over recent decades, we have been encouraged to borrow in order to own our own property and so that we can buy the things we want, though not necessarily need, today as opposed to tomorrow. The young have been particularly susceptible to this buy-now-pay-later ideology - our research shows that the under-35s carry the heaviest debt burden and are the least likely to have savings.
When the economy was growing strongly and house prices were continually rising, our confidence was resolute and our desire to borrow seemingly undeterred. Now that economic conditions have deteriorated and more uncertain times are ahead, have our attitudes towards debt changed? Have we lost our appetite for buying property, or are we biding our time until conditions improve? Are we managing comfortably or are we struggling to make ends meet? Do we feel well placed financially to weather any downturn in the economy? Or have we bitten off more than we can chew?
By drawing on a range of sources, this report seeks to answer these questions. It examines the issues, assesses recent borrowing patterns and judges future short-term prospects. The report also presents and analyses the findings of Mintel’s consumer survey, which explores people’s perceptions of their own financial health and ability to manage money and any borrowings they have.
Key report themes:
- What’s the size of the UK mortgage lending and consumer credit markets and how have they performed recently?
- What factors are driving change in these markets?
- How are consumer attitudes and behaviours being affected by the credit squeeze and adverse press surrounding the economy and the housing market?
- What types of lending products do people have?
- What’s their level of debt?
- What proportion are struggling or have over-extended themselves?
- How financially capable are they?
- What proportion have savings and what proportion are making provision for their retirement?
- What proportion expect to take out a new loan or extend their borrowing, and what proportion plan to cut back on spending, over the next year?
- What do they think will happen to house prices?
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