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Future of Glyphosate Industry in China

Published by: CCM International Limited

Published: Jun. 2, 2008 - 405 Pages


Table of Contents


Guideline

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

Pesticide industry in China

I-1.1 Overview of crop planting situation

I-1.2 Brief introduction to history of pesticide industry

I-1.3 Overview of China’s current pesticide production

I-1.4 Governmental policies on Chinese agriculture & pesticide industry I-1.5 Pesticide Demand in China

I-1.6 Reviews of Chinese pesticide industry

II Glyphosate upstream industry

II-1 Brief introduction to raw materials & intermediates involved in glyphosate production

II-2 Introduction to major raw materials & intermediates of glyphosate

II-2.1 Yellow phosphorous in China

II-2.2 Phosphorus trichloride in China

II-2.3 Dimethyl phosphite in China

II-2.4 Formaldehyde in China

II-2.5 Glycine in China

II-2.6 Paraformaldehyde in China

II-2.7 Diethanolamine in China

II-2.8 Natural gas in China

II-2.9 Hydrocyanic acid in China

II-2.10 Iminodiacetonitrile in China

II-2.11 PMIDA in China

II-3 Impact of raw materials on glyphosate industry

III China’s glyphosate nowadays

III-1 History of glyphosate production in China

III-2 Registration situation of glyphosate in China

III-3 Production technology

III-3.1 Introduction to different pathways of glyphosate production in China

III-3.1-1 AEA pathway

III-3.1-2 IDA pathway

- DEA route

- IDAN route

III-3.2 Comparison of different pathways of glyphosate production

III-3.3 Development trend of technology in China

III-4 Current supply situation

III-4.1 Glyphosate technical

III-4.1.1 Overall situation of glyphosate technical producers

III-4.1.2 Production capacity

- Capacity by province

- Capacity by pathway

- Capacity expanding

III-4.1.3 Output

- Output by province

- Output by pathway

III-4.2 Glyphosate formulations

III-4.2.1 Overall situation of glyphosate formulations

III-4.2.2 Introduction to specific formulations

- Summary of glyphosate 10% solution

- Summary of glyphosate 41% solution

- Summary of soluble powder & WP forms of glyphosate formulations

- Summary of high content glyphosate water formulations

III-4.2.3 About the additive technology & Chinese weakness in formulation production

III-5 Trading of glyphosate in China

III-5.1 Pricing of glyphosate

III-5.1.1 Key factors influencing the price

III-5.1.2 Pricing in the past few years

III-5.1.3 Current pricing and pricing in the future

III-5.2 Import & export analysis

III-5.2.1 Import situation of glyphosate

III-5.2.2 Export situation of glyphosate

III-5.2.3 Antidumping issue of Chinese glyphosate

III-5.3 Active traders in China

III-5.4 Distribution channels of glyphosate in China

III-5.5 Position of imported products and overseas producers in China

III-6 Mass balance between glyphosate and its upstream products

III-7 Demand for glyphosate

III-7.1 Global demand for China’s glyphosate

III-7.1.1 Overview of global genetically modified crop

III-7.1.2 Estimated global demand for glyphosate

III-7.1.3 Overview of global glyphosate production

III-7.1.4 Roles of China’s glyphosate in overseas markets

III-7.2 Domestic demand for glyphosate

III-7.2.1 Overview of Chinese glyphosate technical consumption

III-7.2.2 Position and market size of glyphosate in herbicide industry

III-7.2.3 Glyphosate formulations use in China

- Regional distribution of glyphosate use in China

- Use pattern of glyphosate formulations

- Seasonal factor in use of glyphosate in China

- Packing

- How to choose

- The weed which can not be killed

- Glyphosate mixed with other herbicide

- Use situation of glyphosate formulations in each major crops

IV Competitive landscape of Chinese glyphosate industry

IV-1 Production cost

IV-2 Governmental policies

IV-3 Technology innovation

IV-4 Marketing strategies

IV-5 Competitions to other herbicides

V Prospects of Chinese glyphosate in the future

V-1 Key factors and driving forces for the development of glyphosate in China

V-1.1 Planting area of crops

V-1.1.1 GM crops

V-1.1.2 No-tillage crops

V-1.1.3 Total planting area of crops

V-1.2 Development trend of pesticide

V-1.2.1 Herbicides development in China

V-1.2.2 Influences of high price on the consumption of glyphosate

V-1.2.3 Consumption trend of herbicides

V-1.3 Production concentration into China

V-1.3.1 Current trend

V-1.3.2 Competitiveness of China’s glyphosate industry

V-1.4 Policies

V-1.4.1 Trade regulations

V-1.4.2 Environmental regulations

V-1.4.3 Entry barriers

V-1.4.4 Regulations related to GM crops

V-1.5 Macro economic situation in China

V-1.5.1 China economy continuously develop with fast growth rate

V-1.5.2 Growth rate of export reduced

V-1.5.3 Peasants’ income grows continuously and stably

V-1.5.4 Low labor cost

V-1.5.5 More population and fewer peasants and less cultivated Land

V-1.5.6 Serious Inflation

V-1.5.7 RMB appreciation

V-1.5.8 Short of energy and raw materials supply

V-1.5.9 Great demand for bio-energy

V-2 Challenges and opportunities for Chinese glyphosate industry

V-2.1 Opportunities

V-2.2 Risks

V-3 Future forecast on glyphosate in the next 5-10 years

V-3.1 Introduction

V-3.2 Forecasts to 2018

Competitiveness in global glyphosate markets

Demand

Production Capacity

Output

Export

Import

VI Conclusion, challenges, commercial opportunities and recommendation

VII Appendix: Situation of Chinese manufacturers

VII-1 Glyphosate technical producers

VII-1.01 Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Industrial Group Co., Ltd.

……

VII-1.45 Shandong Wucheng Kangda Chemical Co., Ltd.

VII-2 Glyphosate formulation producers

VII-2.01 Guangxi Zizhu Chemical Co., Ltd.

……

VII-2.20 Guangxi Guigang Songtian Chemical Co., Ltd.

LIST OF TABLES

Table USD/RMB exchange, 2005-May 2008

Table I-1.1-1 Cultivated land area in China, 2002~2007, million ha

Table I-1.3-1 Output and share of each class of agrochemical from 1986 to 2006(Percent: %, Quantity: convert into 100%, tonne)

Table I-1.4-1 Government organizations involving in the management on the agrochemical industry in China

Table I-1.5-1 Import & export of pesticides in China, 1993-2007

Table I-1.5-2 Export volume and value of pesticides breakdown by technical and formulation, 2007

Table II-2.1.1-1 Capacity of yellow phosphorus in different regions in the world (tonne)

Table II-2.1.2-1 Status of yellow phosphorus producers in China as of August 2007 (By CCM)

Table II-2.1.2-2 Top 50 active yellow phosphorus producers in China in 2006 (tonne)

Table II-2.1.5-1 General consumption of raw materials for yellow phosphorous production in China

Table II-2.1.7-1 Import & export situation of yellow phosphorus in China in the past few years

Table II-2.1.8-1 Consumption of yellow phosphorus in different segments in China from 2002 to 2006 (tonne)

Table II-2.2.1-1 Active producers of PCl3 in China in 2008 (tonne)

Table II-2.2.1-2 Cost structure of PCl3 in China in May 2008

Table II-2.3.2-1 Top 10 DMP Manufacturers in China in 2005 (tonne)

Table II-2.3.2-2 Active manufacturers of DMP in China as of May 2008 (tonne)

Table II-2.4-1 Supply & demand situation of formaldehyde in China (tonne)

Table II-2.4-2 Average price of formaldehyde and methanol in China, 2001-2007

Table II-2.5.1-1 Status of glycine producers in China in 2008 (By CCM)

Table II-2.5.1-2 Industrial grade glycine producers in China as of May 2008 (tonne)

Table II-2.5.1-3 Distribution of industrial grade glycine producers in China

Table II-2.5.2-1 Property comparison between homemade glycine and overseas glycine

Table II-2.5.3-1 Market popular price of glycine before 2007 (RMB/t)

Table II-2.5.3-2 Average price of glycine in the past three years (RMB/t)

Table II-2.5.4-1 Consumption of glycine in glyphosate, 2001-2007 (tonne)

Table II-2.6-1 Production and market situation of PF in China, 1999-2007 (tonne)

Table II-2.6.1-1 Summary of producers of PF of technical grade in China -1

Table II-2.6.1-2 Summary of producers of PF of technical grade in China (tonne) -2

Table II-2.6.3-1 PF imported directly by glyphosate technical producers, 2005-2007 (kg, USD/kg)

Table II-2.6.3-2 Import & export of PF, 1998-2007 (tonne, USD/kg)

Table II-2.6.4-1 Consumption of PF in agrochemical industry, 2002 -2007

Table II-2.6.4-2 Production of glyphosate and consumption of PF therein (tonne)

Table II-2.7.1-1 Manufacturers of ethanolamines in China -1

Table II-2.7.1-2 Manufacturers of ethanolamine in China -2 (tonne)

Table II-2.7.1-3 Manufacturers of DEA in China (tonne)

Table II-2.7.1-4 Jiaxing Jinyan’s ethanolamine & HAA project

Table II-2.7.2-1 The rate of antidumping duty of ethanolamines on different companies

Table II-2.7.2-2 Shipment mode of imported DEA by tonne, 2004-2007

Table II-2.7.2-1 Import quantity and price of DEA, 2004-2007 (tonne, USD/kg)

Table II-2.7.2-2 Top 25 importers of DEA by tonne, 2004-2007

Table II-2.7.2-3 Import quantity of DEA by glyphosate producers in 2003-2007 (tonne)

Table II-2.7.4-1 Output of PMIDA & glyphosate by taking DEA as raw material and the consumption volume of DEA in 2004-2007 (tonne)

Table II-2.7.4-2 Active producers of glyphosate taking DEA as raw material in China (tonne)

Table II-2.8.2-1 Factory price in some oil fields in March 2007

Table II-2.8.2-2 Pipeline transport price of pipe line from Shanxi to Beijing in 2006

Table II-2.8.2-3 Price of natural gas for industry in Chongqing, Shanghai and Suzhou

Table II.2-1 Supply and demand of natural gas in China in the future few years

Table II-2.9-1 Production situation of hydrocyanic acid in China

Table II-2.9.1-2 Producers of HCN by acrylonitrile pathway in China in 2008 (t/a)

Table II-2.9.2-1 HCN manufacturers of by natural gas route as of February 2008 (tonne)

Table II-2.9.2-1 HCN manufacturers by light oil cracking method as of February 2008 (tonne)

Table II-2.10.2-1 List of IDAN producers in China as of May 2008 (tonne)

Table II-2.10.2-2 List of potential projects of IDAN in China (tonne)

Table II-2.10.3-1 Quoted price of IDAN by IDAN producers (RMB/t)

Table II-2.10.4-1 IDAN consumers in PMIDA & glyphosate industry (tonne)

Table II-2.10.4-2 IDAN consumption in PMIDA & glyphosate industry, 2005-2007 (tonne)

Table II-2.11.1-1 Manufacturers of PMIDA in China (tonne, RMB/t)

Table II-2.11.1-2 Potential projects of PMIDA (tonne)

Table II-2.11.1-3 Profit comparison between PMIDA and glyphosate

Table II-2.11.3-1 Export price of PMIDA in 2005-2008 1Q (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg)

Table II-2.11.3-2 Exporters and export destinations of PMIDA in 2005 (kg)

Table II-2.11.3-3 Exporters and export destinations of PMIDA in 2006 (kg)

Table II-2.11.3-3 Exporters and export destinations of PMIDA in 2007 (kg)

Table II-2.11.3-4 Exporters and export destinations of PMIDA in 2008 1Q (kg)

Table III-2-1 Registration situation of glyphosate technical in China as of March 2008

Table III-2-2 Registration situation of glyphosate formulation in China as of December 2007

Table III-3.2-1 Comparison of different pathways

Table III-4.1.1-1 Overview of glyphosate technical manufacturers in China-1

Table III-4.1.1-2 Overview of glyphosate technical manufacturers in China-2

Table III-4.1.1-1 Number of glyphosate producers in China, by province

Table III-4.1.2-1 Capacity of glyphosate technical in China by province (tonne)

Table III-4.1.2-2 Capacity expanding of glyphosate technical in China, 2008-2009 (tonne) -1

Table III-4.1.2-3 Capacity expanding of glyphosate technical in China, 2008-2009 (tonne) -2

Table III-4.1.3-1 Output of glyphosate technical in China by province (tonne)

Table III-4.1.3-2 Output of glyphosate technical in China by different pathway (tonne)

Table III-4.2.1-1 Glyphosate formulation species and number of producers in China

Table III-4.2.1-2 Output of major glyphosate formulations in China in 2007 (tonne)

Table III-4.2.1-2 Distribution of glyphosate formulations producers in 2007, manufacturers of both glyphosate technical and formulations excluded (tonne)

Table III-4.2.1-3 List of glyphosate formulations producers, manufacturers of both glyphosate technical and formulations excluded (tonne)

Table III-4.2.2-1 Production situation of 10%SL (Glyphosate technical producers excluded)

Table III-4.2.2-2 Production situation of 41%IPA (Glyphosate technical producers excluded)

Table III-4.2.2-3 Production situation of WP (Glyphosate technical producers excluded)

Table III-4.2.2-4 Production situation of 62%IPA in China (tonne)

Table III-5.1.2-1 The average price of glyphosate and its related products in China (RMB/t)

Table III-5.2-1 Import & export of glyphosate technical and formulations, 2002-2007 (tonne)

Table III-5.2.1-1 Import price of glyphosate in 2005-2007 (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg)

Table III-5.2.1-2 Importers of glyphosate in 2005 (Quantity: kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.1-4 Importers of glyphosate in 2006 (Quantity: kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-1 Export price of glyphosate in 2005 (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-2 Main export destinations of glyphosate in 2005 (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-3 Main exporters of glyphosate in 2005 (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-4 Export situation of Chinese manufacturers in 2005 (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-5 Export price of glyphosate in 2006 (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-6 Main export destinations of glyphosate in 2006(Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-7 Main exporters of glyphosate in 2006(Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-8 Export situation of Chinese manufacturers in 2006(Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-9 Export price of glyphosate in 2007 (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-10 Main export destinations of glyphosate in 2007(Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-11 Main exporters of glyphosate in 2007 (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-12 Export situation of Chinese manufacturers in 2007(Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-13 Export price of glyphosate in 2008 1Q (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-14 Main export destinations of glyphosate in 2008 1Q (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-15 Main exporters of glyphosate in 2008 1Q (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table III-5.2.2-16 Export situation of Chinese manufacturers in 2008 1Q (Quantity: kg, Price: USD/kg, Value: USD)

Table II-4-1 Key enterprises who run chain-store operation of agricultural materials

Table III-6-1 Consumption of major raw materials in PMIDA & glyphosate, 2007 (tonne)

Table III-7.1.1-1 Global planting area of GM crops, 1996-2007

Table III-7.1.1-2 GM crops grown in the countries in the world, 1996-2007 (million hectares)

Table III-7.1.4-1 Situation of China’s glyphosate output in global market, 2005-2007 (tonne)

Table III-7.1.4-2 Situation of China’s glyphosate in the overseas market, 2005-2007 (tonne)

Table III-7.1.4-2 The export situation of China’s glyphosate technical, 2005-2007 (tonne)

Table III-7.2.1-1 The consumption pattern of glyphosate technical (tonne)

Table III-7.2.2-1 Supply & demand of herbicide and glyphosate in China, 2004-2007 (Counted by 100% technical, tonne)

Table III-7.2.3.1-1 The consumption of glyphosate in each province in 2007 (tonne, counted by 95% technical)

Table III-7.2.3.1-2 The planting area of major crops in each province in China in 2007 (thousand hectares)

Table III-7.2.3.1-3 The planting area of major orchard in each province in 2007 (thousand hectare)

Table III-7.2.3.1-4 The consumption of glyphosate of major crops in each province in 2007 (tonne, counted by 95% technical)

Table III-7.2.3.1-5 The consumption of glyphosate of major fruit in each province in 2007 (tonne, counted by 95% technical)

Table III-7.2.3.2-1 The formulation consumption structure in China in 2007 (tonne)

Table IV-1-1 Theoretical cost per tonne glyphosate for different pathway

Table III-7.2.2.6-1 Comparison between glyphosate and paraquat

Table V-1.1.1-1 Global herbicide tolerance GM crops development, 2000-2007, million hectares

Table V-1.1.2-1 No-tillage cultivating technology advantages

Table V-1.1.2-2 No-tillage cultivation system development plan in China, million ha

Table V-1.1.2-3 Crop planting area under no-tillage in the world in 2005, ha

Table V-1.2.1-1 China’s pesticide output and growth rate in 2000-2007 (10kt)

Table V-1.3.2-1 Comparison between the glyphosate industry in China and in overseas

Table V-1.5.4-1 Situation of salary and GDP, 2000-2007 (RMB 100 million Yuan)

Table V-3.1-1 Assumptions on growth rate of GM crops and tillage crops in the world to 2018

Table V-3.1-2 Assumptions on growth rate of GM crops and tillage crops in China to 2018

Table V-3.1-3 Assumptions on growth rate of GM crops and tillage crops in the world to 2018

Table V-3.1-4 Assumptions on growth rate of GM crops and tillage crops in China to 2018

Table V-3.1-5 Assumptions on the growth rate of global GM crops and tillage crops to 2018

Table V-3.1-6 Assumptions on the growth rate of GM crops and tillage crops in China to 2018

Table V-3.2-1 Future growth of glyphosate demand in the world to 2018, tonne

Table V-3.2-2 Future growth of glyphosate demand in China to 2018, tonne

Table V-3.2-3 Future growth of glyphosate capacity in China to 2018, t/a

Table V-3.2-4 Utilization rates assumed from 2008 to 2018, %

Table V-3.2-5 Future growth of glyphosate output in China to 2018, tonne

Table V-3.2-6 Market shares of China’s glyphosate producers assumed from 2008 to 2018, %

Table V-3.2-7 Future growth of glyphosate export in China to 2018, tonne

Table V-3.2-8 Future growth of glyphosate import in China to 2018, tonne


LIST OF FIGURES

Figure I-1.1-1 China crop planting area, 2000~2007, million hectare

Figure I-1.1-2 Planting situation of different crops, 2007

Figure I-1.1-3 Planting situation of different crops, 1997

Chart I-1.3-1 Product structural change of pesticide production in China, 1986-2007

Chart I-1.3-2 Growth of pesticides output in China, 1986-2007, kt

Figure I-1.5-1 Pesticide apparent consumption (tonne, converted to 100%) in China, 1997-2007

Figure I-1.5-2 Percentage of export/output (by volume) in China, 1997-2007

Figure II-1-1 Concise flow charts of glyphosate with IDA and AEA pathways -1

Figure II-1-2 Concise flow charts of glyphosate with IDA and AEA pathways -2

Figure II-2.1.1-1 Capacity distribution of yellow phosphorus in China in 2007

Figure II-2.1.1-2 Output of yellow phosphorus in China, 2002-2007

Figure II-2.1.1-2 Capacity and operation rate of yellow phosphorus in China, 2002-2007

Figure II-2.1.6-1 National average factory price of yellow phosphorus, 2005-May 2008

Figure II-2.1.8-1 Apparent consumption of yellow phosphorus in China, 2000-2007

Figure II-2.1.8-2 Consumption pattern of yellow phosphorus in China in 2006

Figure II-2.2.1-1 Average price of PCl3 in China, 2005-May 2008

Figure II-2.3.1-1 Flowchart of DMP production by non-solvent on method

Figure II-2.4-1 Consumption structure of formaldehyde in China

Figure II-2.5.3-1 Quoted price of glycine by Hebei Donghua, 2007-May 2008 (RMB/t)

Figure II-2.6.2-1 Price of PF in China from 2004 to 2007

Figure II-2.6.4-1 Consumption situation of PF in China, 2000-2007

Figure II-2.6.4-2 Consumption pattern of PF in China

Figure II-2.7.2-1 Shipment mode of imported DEA, 2004-2007

Figure II-2.7.2-1 Historic data of DEA imports, 1998-2007

Figure II-2.7.2-2 Share of imported DEA by major export origins, 2004-2007

Figure II-2.7.3-1 Quoted price of DEA in China, 2006-May 2008

Figure II-2.7.3-2 Price of imported ethanolamines in China in the past few years (USD/kg)

Figure II-2.7.4-1 Apparent consumption of DEA in China, 2000-2008

Figure II-2.8.1-1 Output and consumption of China’s natural gas, 2004-2007 (billion m3)

Figure II-2.8.1-2 Consumption pattern of natural gas in China in 2005

Chart III-3.1.1-1 Flowchart of Glyphosate by AEA Pathway

Figure III-4.1.2-2 Capacity of glyphosate technical in China by different pathway (tonne)

Figure III-4.1.3-1 Output share by different regions, 2001-2007

Figure III-4.1.3-2 Output share by different regions, 2007

Figure III-4.1.3-3 Output share of glyphosate technical in China by different pathway

Figure III-4.1.2-1 Shipment mode of imported DEA in 2007

Figure III-5.1.2-1 Pricing of glyphosate technical in China, 2004-May 2008

Figure III-5.2-1 The export of Chinese glyphosate technical

Figure III-5.4-1 The distribution channel of glyphosate in China

Figure III-6 Mass balance between glyphosate and its upstream products

Figure III-7.1-1 The market share of China’s glyphosate in the world

Figure III-7.1.1-1 Global planting area of GM crops, 1996-2007

Figure III-7.1.1-2 Global planting area of GM crops by crop, 1996-2007 (million hectares)

Figure III-7.1.1-3 Global area of GM crops by trait, 1996-2007 (million hectares)

Figure III-7.1.2-1 Global demand for glyphosate and its growth rate, 2001-2007 (tonne)

aFigure III-7.2.1-1 The consumption pattern of glyphosate technical in 2004-2007(tonne)

Figure III-7.2.1-2 The growth rate of glyphosate technical and its consumption in 2005-2007

Figure III-7.2.1-3 China’s consumption of glyphosate technical from 2004 to 2007 (tonne)

Figure III-7.2.3.1-1 The regional distribution of glyphosate use in China in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-1 Proportion of glyphosate consumption in major plants in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-2 The corn planting area in China from 1998 to 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-3 Geographical distribution of major corn planting regions in China in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-4 The cotton planting area in China from 1998 to 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-5 The major geographical distribution of cotton plantation in China in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-6 The bean planting area in China from 1998 to 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-7 The major geographical distribution of soybean planting in China in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-8 The rice planting area in China from 1998 to 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-9 The major geographical distribution of rice plantation in China in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-10 The sugarcane planting area in China from 1998 to 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-11 The geographical distribution of sugarcane planting in China in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-12 Proportion of glyphosate consumption in major fruits in China in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-13 The geographical distribution of major orchard in China

Figure III-7.2.3.8-14 The tea planting area in China from 1998 to 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-15 The geographical distribution of tea planting in China in 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-16 The rubber planting area in China from 1998 to 2007

Figure III-7.2.3.8-17 The geographical distribution of rubber planting in China in 2007

Figure V-1.1.2-1 No-tillage crop areas of major provinces in China, 2006, million ha %

Figure V-1.1.3-1 Global crop planting area, 2000-2007, million hectares

Figure V-1.1.3-2 China’s crop planting area, 2000-2007, million hectares

Figure V-1.2.1-1 China’s pesticide output structure in 2000-2007

Figure V-1.2.1-2 Pesticide output structure in 2007

Figure V-1.2.1-3 Pesticide output structure in 2000

Figure V-1.2.1-4 Percentage of glyphosate in herbicides in China, 2001-2007

Figure V-1.3.1-1 China’s share in the global glyphosate market, 2001-2007

Figure V-1.3.1-2 Capacity development of glyphosate in China, capacity ’08/’09 based on the expansion plans of glyphosate players, 2001-2009, t/a

Figure V-1.3.1-3 Capacity utilization rate of glyphosate industry in China, 2001-2007

Figure V-1.3.1-3 Capacity utilization rate of glyphosate industry in China, 2001-2007

Figure V-1.5.1-1 GDP growth of China in the past 8 years

Figure V-1.5.1-2 Per capita GDP growth of China in the past 7 years

Figure V-1.5.2-1 Regional distribution of export volume in the first quarter of 2007

Figure V-1.5.2-2 Regional distribution of China’s export volume in the first quarter of 2008

Figure V-1.5.2-3 Growth rate of export volume in the first quarter of 2007 and 2008

Figure V-1.5.3-1 Per capita annual income of rural households in China in the past 5 years

Figure V-1.5.4-1 Average salary per year for employee and its index in 2000-2006 (index means the average salary of the former year is 100)

Figure V-1.5.5-1 Population structure in 2000-2007(10 thousand population)

Figure V-1.5.5-2 The total employment and rural employment (10 thousand population) and their growth rates in 2000-2007

Figure V-1.5.5-3 The total area of cultivated land in 2002-2007 in China (10 thousand hectares)

Figure V-1.5.6-1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) in 2000-2007

Figure V-1.5.6-2 The price growth rate of real estate in several cities of China

Figure V-1.5.6-3 The dependence degree on export of China’s economy in these years (%)

Figure V-1.5.6-2 The price growth rate of real estate in several cities of China

Figure V-1.5.6-3 The dependence degree on export of China’s economy in these years (%)

Figure V-1.5.6-4 China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD 100 million) and its growth rate in 2000-2007

Figure V-1.5.6-5 The total money (M2) (USD 100 million) and its growth rate in 2000-2007

Figure V-1.5.6-6 The Fixed investment (RMB 100million) and its growth rate in 2000-2007

Figure V-1.5.7-1 Exchange rate of RMB against USD

Figure V-1.5.7-2 Exchange rate of RMB against EU and 100 Yen in recent years

Figure V-1.5.8-1 The output and consumption structure of energy in China during 2000-2006 (10 thousand tonne coal)

FigureV-1.5.8-2 The output and import of crude oil in China in 2002-2007 (10 thousand tonne)

Figure V-1.5.8-3 The output and consumption of electricity in 2004-2007 (10 thousand KW)

Figure V-1.5.9-4 The import volume of liquid natural gas in 2005-2007 (tonne)

Figure V-3.2-1 Forecasts of Glyphosate demand in the world, 2008-2018, tonne

Figure V-3.2-2 Forecast on Glyphosate demand in China, 2008-2018, tonne

Figure V-3.2-3 Capacity forecast of glyphosate in China to 2018, t/a

Figure V-3.2-4 Output forecast of glyphosate in China to 2018, tonne

Figure V-3.2-5 Export forecast of glyphosate in China to 2018, tonne

Figure V-3.2-6 Import forecast of glyphosate in China to 2018, tonne

Abstract

Glyphosate, a broad-spectrum herbicide, widely used to kill unwanted plants both in agriculture and in nonagricultural landscapes, has been in a leading position of herbicides in the world in the past few years; it is estimated that the global consumption of glyphosate is over 600kts at present and will increase by CAGR of over 15%.

China, now the largest production base of glyphosate technical in the world, has glyphosate capacity accounting for more than 40% of the global total. With the output expected to reach about 280kts and the export volume 250kts in 2008, China’s glyphosate supply and price will have great impacts on the global market.

However, will China maintain its dominance in the glyphosate supply in the world? Will the export of Chinese glyphosate keep growing since it has already constituted over 70% of China’s total output? What will be the major factors influencing China’s export and towards what direction will they drive China’s glyphosate export? This report will answer all these questions.

At present, China's glyphosate has been characterized for the following features, soaring glyphosate price, and huge profit in China's glyphosate producers, exploding capacity driven by these two factors mentioned above, changing technology landscape in China's glyphosate production etc.

Since February 2007, China's glyphosate price has been surging, from the average price of about RMB34,000/t in February to RMB42,000/t as of September 2007. However, this is far from the end of the price rise. The price has kept soaring, from RMB58,000/t at the end of 2007 to the unbelievably record high, RMB95,000~100,000/t as of May 2008. But in 2006, the average price was only about RMB26,000/t. What has caused the price hike? How does it influence domestic glyphosate production and the export? What are the comments from Chinese producers, traders, experts and raw material suppliers on this situation and how will they react to this price hike? When will the turning point be? CCM will provide an in-depth analysis in this report.

Driven by the huge profits and increasing demand, many Chinese manufactures are expanding, launching or desiring to launch new glyphosate projects. It could be foreseen that production capacity of glyphosate in China will have a sharp rise in the next 2 years. The competition among Chinese glyphosate manufactures in China will become intense. Moreover, with the development of oversea producers, the competitions among countries will be fierce also. China is raising environmental threshold and environmental protection cost is increasing accordingly. So small-scale glyphosate production lines will be shut down. What is the future of glyphosate production in China? What's the competitiveness and competitive strategies of China's glyphosate in the future? With the price soaring of non-renewable resources and development of other herbicide or weed-control technology, in the far future, would glyphosate production centre shift away from China, or will the life cycle of glyphosate come to an end?

In China, there are three pathways for glyphosate production including glycine route, IDAN route and DEA route. With sufficient supply of glycine and steady production, glyphosate production with glycine route, the route used in China only among all the glyphosate production countries, confronts almost no bottlenecks, except that it causes more water pollution than that by the other routes, and that the production cost is also much higher than the other routes. Judged from the pollution and production cost, glyphosate production with glycine route should run down in the coming years. And the share of glyphosate produced by glycine route in China has decreased year by year, which seems to have proved such speculation. However, the output of glyphosate by glycine route increased rapidly in 2007, and the capacity of glyphosate by glycine route was also exploding in 2007 and 2008, and it will keep exploding in 2009. What has happened in China? What on earth has resulted in the change? What is the development trend? In this report, CCM will give a detailed introduction and summary about glyphosate production in the past, at present and in the future to help the readers understand the actual production of China's glyphosate.

Owning to its excellent efficiency in weed control, glyphosate, is also the most widely used herbicide in China, similar to its situation in the world. China is a large agriculture country, with cultivated land area of 120 million hm2, over 70 million hm2 of which employ herbicides for weed control. However, China's glyphosate consumption encounters application limitations, competition from other herbicides, as well as peasants' preference. What is the situation of China's crop planting, glyphosate demand & market share in China, regional distribution of glyphosate use, peasants' preference on the choice of herbicides and competitive herbicides? This report will also reveal all these situation of current glyphosate use and demand in China.

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