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Published by: Decision Resources
Published: Jun. 5, 2008 - 37 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Strategic Considerations
- Stakeholder Implications
- Commercial Potential and Staying Power
- Historical Analyses
- A Conundrum—Reconciling Respectable Industry Growth Rates with Poor New Product
- Productivity
- Promotional Expenditure
- Range Extension
- Product Quality: Potential Commercial Value
- Assessment of Quality, 1990-2000
- New Product Quality, 2005 and 2007
- New Active Substances Launched in 2005 and 2007
- Number of New Products with Commercial Potential
- Burgeoning Blockbusters
- Longevity: Trends in Product Staying Power
- The Top 50 Best-Selling Global Products of 2006
- Trends in Product Longevity, 1994-2006
- A More Dynamic Market
- Products Exiting the Best-Selling Global Product Rankings
- Products Entering the Best-Selling Global Product Rankings
- Evidence of a More Dynamic Market, 1994-2006
- Are the Top 50 Best-Selling Drugs Representative of Product Longevity in General?
- Three Factors That Contribute to Increasing Product Quality
- Ability to Capitalize on Fewer Products
- Biologics’ Effect on Average Longevity of Products
- Pricing
- Future Trends Impacting Product Quality
- Patent Expiry Trends
- Factors Relating to Generics
- Local Products and Me-Too Products
- Multiple Indication Trends
- Contribution of Biologics
- Trends in Intellectual Property Periods
- Product Attrition Rates
- Pricing of New Generations of Products
- New Product Promotion
- A Positive Outlook
- Tables
- 1. New Active Substances Launched, 2007
- 2. Longevity of the Top 50 Best-Selling Global Products, 2006
- 3. Products That Exited From the Top 50 Best-Selling Product Cohort After 2005
- 4. Products That Exited From the Top 50 Best-Selling Product Cohort After 1994
- 5. Products That Entered the Top 50 Best-Selling Product Cohort of 1994
- 6. Products That Entered the Top 50 Best-Selling Product Cohort of 2006
- 7. Top 200 Best-Selling Cohort of 2005: Longevity of the Six Smallest Products with Sales That Peaked in 2005
- 8. Factors Affecting the Future Commercial Potential of Products
- Appendix: Ninety-Seven Products Ranked in the Top 50 Global Best-Selling Products in 1998, 2001, 2002, or 2006
- Figures
- 1. Global First Launches of New Products, 1990-2007
- 2. Global Growth Rate of the Pharmaceutical Industry, 1990-2007
- 3. Relating Global Reach to Commercial Potential: Trends in the Launch of Global and Local New Active Substances, 1990-2007
- 4. Growth in the Number of Global Blockbusters, 1986-2006
- 5. Longevities of the Top 50 Best-Selling Products, 1994 and 2006
- 6. Trend in Average Product Longevity, 1994-2006
- 7. Annual Sales Threshold for Inclusion in the Top 50 Best-Selling Global Product Cohort, 1994-2006
- Sidebar
- The Methodology Used to Calculate a Product’s Longevity
AbstractThe commercial potential of products in development is vitally import to the pharmaceutical industry, which
is now beset with productivity concerns, looming patent expiries, and declining growth rates. Many methods
are used to produce sales forecasts, but a key element in these projections concerns the product’s staying power
or longevity. In this report, we provide a logical analysis based on 12 years of data (1994 to 2006) to support a
longer average product longevity than the norm, which is widely used in industry sales forecasts today. We also
discuss a much-needed positive indicator for the pharmaceutical industry relating to the number of new products
reaching the market.
Get the Answers You Need to Shape Your Strategy
- A major issue in pharmaceutical development is the potential commercial value of a new product.What
do successful, innovative products have in common? What are the trends in product quality since
the 1990s? How does the quality and commercial potential of new products compare with products
launched earlier?
- A considerable increase in product quality has been occurring since the mid 1990s, whether mediated by
longevity or not. What factors are leading to an increase in the commercial value of new products and
an increase in their market staying power? What factors are contributing to these positive trends? Are
these trends likely to continue?
- Going forward, powerful forces will continue to affect product quality, both positively and negatively, in the
next decade. Which of these forces are of greatest concern? Will the combination of these forces exert a
positive or negative infl uence overall? How long can we expect current trends to continue?
Scope
- Product quality and potential commercial value: assessment of quality over time, including 12
years of data from annual cohorts of global best-selling drugs; burgeoning blockbusters; global
versus local products; new active substances.
- Product longevity: methodology to calculate product longevity; trends in product staying power; 97
products ranked in the top 50 global best-selling products for 1998, 2001, 2002, or 2006.
- A dynamic market: products entering and exiting the global best-selling markets; sales thresholds;
factors infl uencing the market.
- Outlook: patent expiries and product attrition rates; the role of biologics; pricing trends; generics
erosion; new product promotion.
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