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Published by: Intelace Research
Published: Jun. 1, 2008 - 88 Pages
Table of Contents
- Slide 1: Executive summary
- 1. Macroeconomic overview
- Slide 2: Poland - General overview
- Slide 3: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2000-2007
- Slide 4: Foreign trade statistics, C/A, FD,I 2000-2007
- Slide 5: Warsaw Stock Exchange - Turnover, Market cap and indexes, 2000-2007
- Slide 6: Unemployment and wages, 2000-2007
- Slide 7: Disposable income in households and distribution, 2000-2007, (2004)
- Slide 8: Consumer confidence index evolution, 2005-Feb. 2008
- Slide 9: Yield curves, 2001-2007
- Slide 10: Banking assets evolution, 2000-2007
- Slide 11: Top 12 foreign investors in banking sector and their subsidiaries 2007
- 2. Insurance market
- Slide 12: Insurance Markets in CEE - Size vs. growth matrix, 2005-2007
- Slide 13: Insurance premium per capita & premium/GDP penetration - International comparison, 2007
- Slide 14: Insurance gross premium (life/non-life) in Poland evolution (in LCU), 2003-2007
- Slide 15: Insurance gross premium (life/non-life) in Poland evolution (in EUR), 2003-2007
- Slide 16: Number of insurance companies, share of foreign funds in core capital, 2000-2005
- Slide 17: Top 12 insurance groups in Poland by total premium written, 2007
- Slide 18: Insurance market concentration and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (life/non-life), 2005/2007
- Slide 19: Number of agents and personnel, 2005-2007
- Slide 20: Insurance regulatory overview, 2007
- Slide 21: Recent major regulatory initiatives (1/2) Solvency II, “Religa Tax”
- Slide 22: Recent major regulatory initiatives (1/2) Private health Insuran
- Slide 23: Solvency margin and coverage with own funds. 2006-2007
- 3. Non-life insurance
- Slide 24: Non-life insurance markets in CEE - Size vs. growth matrix, 2005-2007
- Slide 25: Non-life premium per capita & premium/GDP penetration - International comparison, 2007
- Slide 26: Non-life insurance gross and net premium evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 27: Top 10 non-life insurance players in Poland, 2007
- Slide 28: Market shares of top non-life players, evolution 2004-2007
- Slide 29: Number of policies & premium evolution by segment (retail vs. corp.), 2004-2007
- Slide 30: Non-life premium and no. of policies by risk class, 2007
- Slide 31: Sales channels of non-life insurance, direct sales, 2005-2007
- Slide 32: Direct players - Overview
- Slide 33: Link4-Leader in direct sales in Poland , Profile (1/2)
- Slide 34: Link4-Leader in direct sales in Poland , Website functionalities (2/2)
- Slide 35: Liberty Direct - A “premium” direct player model
- Slide 36: Alternative physical distribution concept - Motobank
- Slide 37: Top Retailers - Will Insurance become another add-on service for their clients?
- Slide 38: Non-life insurers results, Technical and profit account, 2007
- Slide 39: Non-life insurance - profitability tree, 2004-2007
- Slide 40: Non-life insurance - claims and expense ratio evolution, 2004-2007
- Slide 41: Non-life insurance - combined ratio and its elements, 2004-2007
- Slide 42: Motor insurance - premium and no. policies evolution, MTPL, Casco, 2004-2007
- Slide 43: Motor insurance - Top players, MTPL, Casco, 2006-2007
- Slide 44: Motor insurance - combined ratio and its elements, 2004-2007
- Slide 45: Motor insurance - MTPL tariffs 2008 - mystery shopping (1/2)
- Slide 46: Motor insurance - MTPL tariffs 2008 - mystery shopping (2/2)
- Slide 47: Motor insurance - PZU Case: MTPL property claims evolution (2002-2007)
- Slide 48: Motor insurance - PZU Case: MTPL personal claims evolution (2002-2007)
- 4. Life insurance
- Slide 49: Life insurance markets in CEE - Size vs. growth matrix, 2005-2007
- Slide 50: Life premium per capita & premium/GDP penetration - International comparison, 2007
- Slide 51: Life insurance gross and net premium evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 52: Top 10 life insurance players in Poland, 2007
- Slide 53: Market shares of top life players, evolution 2004-2007
- Slide 54: Life premium and no. of policies by risk class, 2007
- Slide 55: Life premium and no. of policies by client segment and policy type, 2007
- Slide 56: Life insurance technical reserves by type evolution, 20032007
- Slide 57: Sales channels of life insurance, direct sales, 2005-2007
- Slide 58: Life insurers results, Technical and profit account, 2007
- Slide 59: Life insurance - profitability tree, 2004-2007
- 5. Bancassurance
- Slide 60: Premium written by bank channel (life/non-life), 2005-2007
- Slide 61: Bancassurance example: Cooperation of PZU with banks
- 6. Top players profiles
- Slide 62: Non-life Insurance: PZU, 2004-2007
- Slide 63: Non-life Insurance: Warta, 2004-2007
- Slide 64: Non-life Insurance: Ergo Hestia, 2004-2007
- Slide 65: Life Insurance: PZU œycie, 2004-2007
- Slide 66: Life Insurance: Commercial Union (Aviva), 2004-2007
- Slide 67: Life Insurance: Aegon, 2004-2007
- 7. Forecast
- Slide 68: Non-life Insurance premium forecast, 2008-2010
- Slide 69: Life Insurance premium forecast, 2008-2010
- Slide 70: Note on Methodology
AbstractGrowing market. With over 12 billion EUR in total annual premium written and ~40% premium share within CEE14* area in 2007, Poland is clearly the biggest single insurance market in this part of Europe. Nevertheless current insurance penetration benchmarks if compared to Western Europe suggest that further growth is possible, provided the local economy will sustain high growth. During the period of 2003-2007 the insurance sector in Poland experienced solid growth, both in life (31% premium CAGR**) and non-life segment (~15% premium CAGR**). The total insurance premium per capita reached 317 €, while the life /non-life premium ratio advanced to 139%
Falling concentration. The initially almost monopolized market is continuing de-concentration trend. PZU is still dominating on the market with: 25-50% share depending on segment. However, position of the giant is gradually eroding thanks to mid-size and smaller players aggressively challenging PZU with better sales skills, lower prices, more friendly customer service and alternative sales channels. It is also worth mentioning that few mid-size groups including: Vienna IG, HDI Gerling and ERGO grow fast by engaging in M&A activity and consolidate smaller players
Profitability. After record years 2005/2006 the profitability indicators of both non-life and life players have deteriorated in 2007. The combined profit of players in non-life segment fell down by almost 50%, affected mostly by quickly rising claims, higher acquisition costs and lower than expected investment result. In the life business insurers managed to grow profits by 14% in 2007 on a rapid premium growth of over 28% yoy., however, falling returns on investments will negatively affect 2008 profits
New sales channels. Entry of aggressive direct players in 2006/2007, price competition and increased role of banks initiated a structural shift in insurance sales channels. Although during 2005-2007 the traditional sales structures could still defend themself (especially in non-life segment), the increasing competition and price pressures will force even established players to redesign sales channels and introduce low cost / direct offers especially in case of low margin products
Still good perspectives. Strong economy, good condition of enterprises and increasing wealth of individuals driven by rising employment and higher wages will contribute to further growth of premiums. In mid-term perspective especially the non-life segment (property and motor insurance) is expected to show a solid premium growth following the revival on new cars market and increased property prices. In life insurance business the volatility of stock market is likely to temporarily negatively affect premium collection of unitlinked products. At the same time it is possible that tax friendly "deposit-like” insurance products with low risk profile will partially replace more risky investments.
Intelace Research expects that insurance premiums in Poland will grow by 8% & 13% in life and non-life segments respectively until 2010
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