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Published by: Intelace Research
Published: May. 1, 2008 - 118 Pages
Table of Contents
- 1. Macroeconomic overview
- Slide 1: Executive summary
- Slide 2: Poland - General overview
- Slide 3: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2000-2007
- Slide 4: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2000-2007
- Slide 5: Yield curves, 2001-2007
- Slide 6: Warsaw Stock Exchange - Turnover, Market cap and indexes, 2000-2007
- Slide 7: Unemployment and wages, 2000-2007
- Slide 8: Disposable income in households and income distribution, 2000-2007
- Slide 9: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2005-2008
- 2. Banking market
- 2.1. Banking market - General trends
- Slide 10: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2005-2007
- Slide 11: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2007
- Slide 12: Structure of the Polish Banking System, 2007
- Slide 13: Polish Banking System ERA analysis, 1989-2007
- Slide 14: Evolution of banking assets by ownership, 1993-2007
- Slide 15: Top foreign investors on the Polish banking market, 2007
- Slide 16: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2000-2007
- Slide 17: Banking assets evolution (in EUR) by group of banks, 2000-2007
- Slide 18: Top 12 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 2007
- Slide 19: Concentration of the banking market (Assets, Branches, ATMs, HH Index), 2006/2007
- Slide 20: Deposits by customer segment evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 21: Loans by customer segment evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 22: Non-performing loans evolution and ratios by type of customer, 2000-2007Q3
- 2.2. Banking market - Regulatory overview
- Slide 23: Regulatory overview: Regulatory bodies on the Polish banking market
- Slide 24: BFG - Deposit Insurance Fund
- Slide 25: BIK - Credit information Office
- Slide 26: Central Bank mandatory reserve policy, 2000-2008
- Slide 27: Regulatory initiatives: Anti-usury law, FX-denominated mortgage
- Slide 28: Basel II/CRD implementation status
- 2.3. Banking market - Banking Infrastructure
- Slide 29: Bank outlets by group of banks, 2004-2007Q3
- Slide 30: Bank outlets development plans of major banks, 2007-2008/2009Q1
- Slide 31: Employment in commercial banks sector, bank assets per employee evolution, 2000-2007
- Slide 32: Direct employee costs evolution, 2005-2007
- Slide 33: ATM number and transaction value evolution, ATM players
- Slide 34: POS number and transaction value evolution, POS players
- 3. Retail banking
- Slide 35: Account penetration in Poland vs. other countries, 2004/2007
- Slide 36: Retail banking clients by segment - pyramid (mass market, affluent, personal and private banking), 2007
- Slide 37: New retail clients at top banks, 2004-2007, New clients up to 2020
- Slide 38: Households deposits by sub-segments and cash evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 39: Households loans by sub-segments evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 40: TOP banks serving households sector, market shares, 2007
- Slide 41: Deposits of private individuals, structure by currency, 2003-2007
- Slide 42: Deposits of private individuals, structure by maturity, 2003-2007
- Slide 43: Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2003-2007
- Slide 44: Investment funds market shares - Top 10 players, 2007
- Slide 45: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2005-2007
- Slide 46: Loans to private individuals by type evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 47: Mortgage to private individuals by currency evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 48: Installment loans market, 2003-2007
- Slide 49: Car loans market, 2005-2007
- Slide 50: Financial intermediaries and their segmentation, 2007
- Slide 51: Major intermediaries by value of loans sold, 2007
- Slide 52: Total number and value of loans and funds sold by major intermediaries, 2007H1
- Slide 53: Specialized/exclusive loan distribution networks, 2007
- Slide 54: Perspectives for financial intermediaries
- Slide 55: Use of direct channels by cash loan providers, 2007
- Slide 56: Internet and PC penetration in Polish households and in corporate sector, shopping online, 2007
- Slide 57: Current accounts at major banks, internet access penetration, 2007
- Slide 58: Online Banking - mBank case
- Slide 59: Direct Cash loans distribution - Sygma Bank & halogotówka case
- Slide 60: Online Banking - new entrants: ING and Citibank and perspectives for standalone internet projects
- Slide 61: Bill payments market structure, 2007
- 3.1. Payment cards
- Slide 62: Cards issued by card type, 2004-2007
- Slide 63: Card transactions by channel, share of cash transactions, 2004-2007
- Slide 64: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2004-2007
- Slide 65: Top players in credit cards business, co-branding partners, 2007
- 4. Corporate banking
- Slide 66: Corporate subjects, number and revenues, 2004/2006
- Slide 67: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 68: Top players on the corporate banking market, 2007
- Slide 69: Brokerage business, top players, 2003-2007
- Slide 70: Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2003-2007
- Slide 71: Non-treasury debt securities market, 2003-2007
- 5. Banks profitability
- Slide 72: Average retail and corporate banking rates offered and implied margins evolution, 2005-2008
- Slide 73: Commercial banks revenue costs and profits composition, 2007
- Slide 74: Commercial banks profitability tree - market averages evolution, 2004-2007
- Slide 75: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree - peers comparison, 2007
- Slide 76: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2007
- Slide 77: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2007
- 6. Banks valuation and M&A activity
- Slide 78: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, 2008Q1
- Slide 79: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, 2008Q1
- Slide 80: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 2007
- Slide 81: Share price performance on the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, 2007-2008Q1
- Slide 82: Recent M&A transactions on the Polish banking market, P/BV multiples
- Slide 83: Expected new banking start-ups, M&A activity and expansion for 2008-2009
- Slide 84: Success in greenfield entry - Polbank EFG case
- 7. Top banks profiles
- Slide 85-86: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
- Slide 87-88: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
- Slide 89-90: Bank profiles: ING Bank lšski
- Slide 91-92 Bank profiles: BRE Bank
- Slide 93-94: Bank profiles: BZ WBK
- 8. Mid-term forecasts
- Slide 95: Banking assets forecast, 2008-2010
- Slide 96: Key retail volumes forecast, 2008-2010
- Slide 97: Key corporate volumes forecast, 2008-2010
- Slide 98: Profitability of commercial banks forecast for 2008 - Central scenario
- 9. Note on methodology
AbstractAnother successful year. Banking sector in Poland enjoyed dynamic growth in 2007. Both client loans and deposits increased substantially recording annual change of 29% and 14% respectively vs. 2006. At the same time average interest margins barely changed, being supported by rising money market rates. As a result, the combined profit of commercial banks increased sharply by 29% to PLN 13 bn (EUR 3.4 bn). Key profitability ratios of commercial banks significantly improved vs. 2006: ROAA rose to 1.88% while ROAE exceeded 18.5% and CI ratio fell down to 55.4%
Competitive landscape & new players. The recently closed merger of Pekao/BPH produced a new market leader. Bank Pekao, a UniCredit subsidiary is controlling today ~16% banking assets and is a clear corporate banking leader (27% market share). On the other end more and more new players emerge on the market willing to build their own operations in Poland. Recent history shows that even a greenfield project may turn into success provided the business model is right and a highly motivated management team is there (case Polbank EFG). At present there are 3 new big banking projects under development: Allianz Bank, Alior/C.Tassara and BWE/Innova. Apart of them there is also a group of other players (mostly from: UK, Iberia and Scandinavia) looking at possible acquisition targets / growth options in Poland
Expansion of infrastructure. Since 2005 most banks expand their physical distribution networks. Despite increasing role of remote channels, building a physical network is still the key for growth in Poland. Banks are increasingly penetrating middle-size cities and smaller markets with cost efficient franchising agency/concepts. If adding current development plans of commercial banks ~1600 new outlets could be opened during next year through Q1/2009 (+16% growth vs.12/2007). Also the payment infrastructure is likely to accelerate in response to positive trends in retail trade and services. Current POS and ATM penetration benchmarks for Poland vs. Europe show a big gap and suggest a substantial growth potential
Good perspectives. Despite worsening global economic climate, the Polish banking sector is likely to keep performing well in the midterm perspective. Both client deposits and loans are expected to grow following the improving situation of households and excellent performance of corporate sector. Interest margins are likely to remain on the current (high) level, at least until the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) keeps raising interest rates. The major threat is on the cost side. Growing infrastructure and employment together with substantial pay and rental cost increases are very likely to affect banks profitability shortly
Mid-term forecast: Intelace Research expects that banking assets will keep growing at 13% p.a. through 2010. Considering increasing revenues, mounting costs
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