Brazil Business Forecast Report Q3 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: May. 12, 2008 - 62 Pages

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

investment Grade ?

Chapter: Political Outlook

SWOT analysis

BMi Political risk ratings

Domestic Politics

Gearing Up For The Presidency

Political scandals continue to grip the government, undermining prospective presidential candidates endorsed

by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Table: Candidates F

Table: Brazil Political Overview

Chapter: Economic Outlook

SWOT analysis

BMi Economic risk ratings

Economic activity

industry To Power On

Brazil’s industrial production is demonstrating robust growth, particularly in the capital goods sector.

Table: Economic activity

Balance of Payments

Farewell To The Current account Surplus

Brazil’s current account will slip into a deficit of% of GDP this year as the country’s trade balance deteriorates.

With more currency appreciation on the cards, our revised projections may yet prove optimistic.

Table: Balance Of Payments

External Debt

investment Grade

By becoming a net foreign creditor at the beginning , Brazil appears to have overcome a major hurdle

in the way of achieving investment grade status later this year.

Table: Foreign Debt

Monetary Policy

BCB Means Business

The central bank reinforced its inflation-tightening credentials by hiking the Selic ratbps t% in April.

With spiralling prices likely to remain a concern, further monetary tightening could be forthcoming.

Table: Monetary Policy

Exchange rate Policy

Short-Term Outlook

The real is set to remain on its appreciatory path going forward. We expect the currency to end the year at BR/US$.

Table: Exchange rate Policy

Chapter: Special report

Business Outlook For Global Frontier Markets

Growing Fast On The New Frontier

Th states that BMI examines in a new report on our online service may make up only a small slice of the

world economy, but they possess characteristics that will see them gain importance in the eyes of investors and

global businesses over the coming years.

Table: Frontier Markets - Key Data and Projections For To Countries

Frontier investment

Potential and Pitfalls

The spectacular macroeconomic performance of frontier markets in recent years has been matched by mildly

successful efforts to deepen capital markets.

Table: GDP Per Capita, US$ (in Order Of % increase)

Table: Diversify Through Frontier Markets - Correlation Coefficients Janua-Apr

Table: Frontier Market indices

regional Overview

laos

Neighbouring Economies The Key To Growth

Laos’s GDP growth has been boosted in recent years as neighbours China, Thailand and Vietnam compete for

its natural resources. GDP expansion has been estimated at% and we see annual growth remaining

above% for our five-year forecast period.

Yemen

Huge Potential, But Don’t Bank On GCC Membership

Markets do not come much more frontier than Yemen, and, as would be expected, there is huge potential for

development, with the prospect of eventual GCC membership likely to act a key investment pull.

Table: Yemen - Economic activity

Democratic republic Of The Congo

Mining industry To Drive Growth

The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s mining industry will be a key driver of growth and is likely to attract

significant levels of FDI, with our real GDP forecasts standing at% and% a, respectively.

Table: Democratic republic Of The Congo - Economic activity

Cuba

investment Prospects after Fidel

The accession of a new leadership structure in Cuba has sparked excitement that th-year-old trade embargo

with the US may be lifted and Cuba may move toward market liberalisation.

Table: Cuba Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts

Mongolia

Minerals To Drive Economic Boom

Mongolia is in the midst of a massive resource-led economic boom that should lift GDP growth into the double

digits and underpin robust increases in exports and inflows of foreign investment capital over the long term.

Table: Mongolia - Economic activity

Chapter: Business Environment

SWOT analysis

BMi Business Environment risk ratings

Business Environment Outlook

Table: BMi Business and Operational risk ratings

institutions

Table: BMi legal Framework ratings

infrastructure

Market Orientation

Table: Latin America, Annual FDI Inflows

Table: BMi Trade ratings

Table: Top Export Destinations

Table: Top import Sources

Operational risk

Chapter: Key Sectors

Defence

Table: Brazil Defence Expenditure Forecasts

Food

Table: Brazil’s Beverage Sectors -- Value/Volume Sal2 (US$mn unless otherwise stated

Abstract

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