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France Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: May. 29, 2008 - 55 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
France Political SWOT
France Security SWOT
France Defence Industry SWOT
France Economic SWOT
Political Overview
Political Outlook
Whatever Works
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe: Security Ratings
Table: Europe: State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Regional Security: Europe
Overview
Internal Terrorism
International Terrorism
Criminal Activities
France Security Risk Ratings
France Conflict Risk
France Terrorism Risk
France Physical Safety Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Latest Developments
Timeline: Internal Threats
External Security Situation
Latest Developments
External Security: Recent Developments
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (Including Conscripted)07
Current Strength
International Deployments
Table: Principal Deployments of the French Armed Forces
Co-ordination And Joint Operations
Table: Selected Training Events/Exercises In Which France Took Part In04
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
Industry Trends & Developments
Background
Latest Developments
Timeline: Defence & Procurement
Arms Trade Overview
Exports
Imports
Table: France Key Players
Procurement Background
Industry Forecast
Army Numbers
Table: Army Numbers
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Outlook Worsens In08
Bad News All Around
Now What?
Table: France - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Company Profiles
Dassault Aviation
DCNS
Thales
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources

Abstract

France was considering a return to NATO, and such a move would help it develop a stronger European defence role, foreign minister Bernard Kouchner said in March. The Paris administration was considering a reversal of General Charles de Gaulle’s 1966 decision to pull his country out of NATO’s military command structure. In return for France re-joining NATO, President Nicholas Sarkozy wanted the US to drop its objections to the development of an independent EU defence force. Washington, with the support of Britain, has been wary of an EU force as a threat to NATO unity. In his first year in office, Sarkozy is seen as having softened France’s traditional criticism of NATO as a US-dominated alliance. His government was also considering a Canadian request for French troops to reinforce Canadian units in southern Afghanistan, which would represent a reversal of the previous French policy of keeping its troops out of the main combat zones in the country.

France’s defence industry represents a significant part of the French economy: 2004 figures show it is worth EUR15bn in terms of orders per annum, EUR3-4bn in terms of exports per annum, and approximately 180, 000 people are employed directly by the industry. The industry has been undergoing significant restructuring and consolidation. In 2005 the government privatised the largest French maritime defence organisation, Direction des Constructions Navales (DCN), since renamed DCNS, which is now part-owned by Thales. This was part of a policy through which the state hopes to exercise greater influence over the defence industry by assuming the role of customer, rather than a stakeholder with no voting power. Further consolidation of Europe’s ‘big four’ - Thales, EADS, Finmeccanica and BAE Systems - may be necessary in the future. In the third quarter, the government reached a deal with Germany to streamline the cumbersome ‘double key’ management of EADS and Airbus, but it remains to be seen whether political tensions between the two major stakeholders will now take a back seat. France ranks among the world’s top five arms exporters. The country was the third largest supplier in the1999-2005 period, with 7% of global deliveries. However, the sustainability of this position is not assured in the face of renewed competition by manufacturers from the US and Russia. France has signed strate gicco-operative accords with three Arab countries, including Libya, which could open up the door to future major arms deals.

France is one of Western Europe’s most stable and secure countries. Centuries of democratic experience allow it to steer a safe course through any political unrest. Its foreign policies - especially its propensity to take distance from those of the US - dictate that it is far from being the most threatened of states in the region. Furthermore, its well-established defence industry works effectively, both independently and in partnership with France’s allies, to ensure that the Republic’s armed forces are more than capable of defending France’s national interests, with surplus equipment available to propel a thriving arms trade across the world.

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