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Syria Defence and Security Report Q2 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 14, 2008 - 39 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractTension over Syria’s role in the Lebanese political crisis rose throughout Q108, despite what had looked like reasonably good prospects for a diplomatic solution in late 2007. Saudi Arabia, along with other Sunni Arab and Western countries, backs the ruling coalition in Lebanon, while Syria and Iran back the opposition that includes the Shi’ite Hizbullah movement. Syria did not join Arab efforts to support the election of a consensus President in Lebanon as a compromise between the two deadlocked factions. An Arab League summit was due to be held in Damascus at the end of March, and regional heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt were threatening to boycott it or send lower level delegations in protest at Syria’s position. In a television interview in late February, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak pointedly described Syria as ‘part of the problem’ in Lebanon. The US also raised the pressure with a State Department official, David Satterfield, saying that Syria was ‘directly responsible… for the continuing blockage and the continued eruption of violence in Lebanon.’ At the beginning of March, Syria objected strongly to Washington’s announcement that it was deploying three warships off the Lebanese coast. Foreign minister Walid al-Moallem said the US could not impose its solution on Lebanon by ‘flexing its muscles’, adding that ‘there is a history of American fleet intervention in Lebanon. I think these experiences were not at all useful..If there had been moments in late 2007 when it looked as if Syria might be ready to come in from the cold and gain a new diplomatic respectability, by 2008 the country seemed to be moving back once more into he familiar anti-US camp. The government of President Bashar al-Assad was leading a big clamp-down on the internal opposition. The death in Damascus of Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh in a car bomb attack served to remind everyone how the regime had been protecting someone high on the US’ list of ‘most wanted’ terrorists. It also raised questions about the effectiveness of the Syrian security services and the prospects of further violence since Hizbullah blamed an Israeli hit squad. Syria seemed to have lost its brief interest in the US-sponsored Annapolis Middle East peace process, which it now dismissed as a ‘public relations exercise’. The Syrian armed forces have declined in terms of both capabilities and equipment of late, as US sanctions and subsequent cash shortfalls have forced the government to reduce its military spending. Military expenditure in Syria is low, having not increased in recent years. Syria lacks an established indigenous defence industry of significance, and its armed forces are almost entirely dependent upon procurement from overseas. This reliance has led to the Syrian armed forces being left under-equipped and reliant on obsolete, ageing equipment, with the government unable to procure modern hardware due to economic restrictions and internationally imposed arms trade sanctions. This scenario is unlikely to change in the near future given Syria’s weak economy and current poor relations with the majority of the international community. However, a recently signed strategic accord with Iran could see financial and technological investment in the Syrian defence industry. Syrian arms imports generally originate from anti-US states such as North Korea and Iran, while other suppliers are very limited given the extensive embargoes placed upon states exporting arms to Syria. The re-emergence of Russia as a potential supplier of arms to Syria may prove to stimulate its arms import trade and address the issue of Syria’s depleted armed forces through the supply and upgrade of its hardware. However, the process will be both slow and limited, as Moscow will be well aware of probable international condemnations of such liaisons. Syria itself does not have the surplus equipment or the production facilities to be able to export arms overseas. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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