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Bulgaria Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: May. 16, 2008 - 37 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Bulgaria Security SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Defence Industry SWOT
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Overview
International Terrorism
Criminal Activities
Bulgaria Terrorism Risk Ratings
Bulgaria Physical Safety Risk Ratings
Bulgaria Conflict Risk Ratings
Political Overview
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Bilateral & Multilateral Security Relations
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Modernisation Programme
International Deployment
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends & Developments
Table: Key Players - Bulgaria Defence Sector
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Sce28
Army Enlargements
Government Expenditure
Table: Bulgaria Defence Sector - Historical Data & For
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Bulgaria Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Arsenal
Arcus
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

For Bulgaria, the success of achieving EU entry at the start of 2007 could soon give way to growing risks to political stability, as the broad government coalition loses a key binding issue. Other key security issues to consider include Bulgaria balancing its commitment towards its Western allies and its traditionalally, Russia. In the second quarter of 2008, the Bulgaria Government announced that it will allow the South Stream pipeline to pass through Bulgaria on its way to southern Europe via the Black Sea. The South Stream project is regarded as the rival to the United States and EU-backed Nabucco pipeline and may be seen as a contentious move by the Bulgarian Government. The Bulgarian Government’s decision indicates just how much influence Russia has in the Balkan region.

The Bulgarian defence industry is relatively mature but is having to compete in a fast-moving market. Bulgaria’s ties with NATO led to the trend for defence firms to increase their participation in the modernisation process. According to Defence Minister Vesselin Bliznakov, Bulgarian defence firms are now encouraged to ‘actively participate in the tenders and programmes’ of the NATO Consultation, Command and Control Agency. The aim is to expedite the interoperability process and, at the same time, strengthen the local defence industry. In recent years the Bulgarian Ministry of Defence has investigated the possibility of privatising state-owned ammunition and weapons firms. In Q208 the Bulgarian Ministry of Defence examined the possibility of privatising the holding company Terem. A successful sale of Terem could see the Bulgarian Government make a profit of US$150.5mn.

Military expenditure is set to increase significantly in the short next one to five years, with the 2007defence expenditure reaching 2.38% of GDP. NATO regulations stipulate that at least 2% of GDP needs to be spent on defence modernisation. To maintain the increased expenditure, Bulgaria receives assistance from the EU, which has committed some US$8.6bn for defence modernisation. In recent years the United States has financially assisted the modernisation of the Bulgarian Armed Force, mainly through the Foreign Military Fund (FMF). The FY08 FMF funding request stood at US$13.2mn. Bulgaria also benefits from the International Military Educational and Training (IMET) assistance programme. The programme supports the Bulgarian Armed Forces’ officer training development. The FY08 IMET request totalled US$1.7mn. It is likely that the support from the US will continue in the near future as Bulgaria has become an important Eastern European base for the superpower.


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