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Croatia Defence and Security Report Q2 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 29, 2008 - 48 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractCroatia is the quintessential case of a quiet achiever. The last quarter has seen no great change in Croatia’s general strategy of downsizing its army and destroying excess small weaponry. Progress on the latter was made in January 2008, with the destruction of some 7, 500 weapons comprising guns, machineguns, and small cannons. The move met with the praise of the UN Security Council, of which Croatia is a temporary member with aspirations for full membership. The general picture is of a country transitioning from a risk to European security, owing to the black-market trade of excess weaponry, towards a secure European nation.Hence, it would probably be fair to say that Croatia’s security situation is improving. The Ministry of Defence is around two years into a nine-year Long Term Plan to modernise the Croatian Armed Forces (CAF). As is the case in other Central and Eastern European countries, modernisation includes reduced manning levels, increased professionalism and movement towards NATO norms. Strong existing links with NATO and the EU (which BMI believes that Croatia will join in 2011-2012) are also positives. Significantly, Croatia’s security threats are of a non-traditional kind. Whilst the old border disputes with Slovenia and Serbia always loom in the background, it is Croatia’s terrain, long borders (relative to area), and convenient location (being a maritime nation which is adjacent to the EU) that together comprise the key risk to security. Taken together, they conspire to make Croatia an extremely useful country for the smuggling of drugs, arms and people. It is not clear how effective the Croatian law enforcement agencies are in dealing with these problems. The prospects for Croatian defence industry participants are mixed. The latest signs are that defence spending and procurements, both of which grew quite strongly in 2007, will continue to rise. The decision not to reinstate EU shipbuilding subsidies has been good news for Croatian shipyards. Privatisations could result in a major injection of new capital and technical expertise. There are early signs of greater integration with NATO supply chains and global multi-nationals. Against this, there are several challenges. It is not yet certain, following a close outcome in the November2007 elections, that the government will remain committed to reform and privatisation. While it is likely that Prime Minister Ivo Sanader of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) will hold onto power, the tightness of the contest and the subsequent need to form a coalition could force a change in policy orientation. More crucially, budget constraints are such that defence spending may stagnate even before the end of 2009, which is when we expect it to peak. Croatia maintains a number of small deployments in a handful of countries. By far the largest deployment, of 22 soldiers, is stationed in Afghanistan as part of the NATO - ISAF programme. Finally, the February 2008 declaration of independence of Kosovo from Serbia could lead to tensions in the region. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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