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Rail Travel

Published by: Key Note Publications Ltd

Published: May. 1, 2008 - 146 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary

1. Market Definition

REPORT COVERAGE

Report Structure

Definitions (Standard Industrial Classification)

MARKET SECTORS

National Rail Infrastructure

Mainline Rail Services

Urban Rail Services

International Rail Services

Northern Ireland

MARKET TRENDS

Travel Trends

Table 1: Number of Passenger Journeys on Public Transport Vehicles in Great Britain by Mode of Transport (million), Years Ending March 2003-2007

ECONOMIC TRENDS

Population

Table 2: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2003-2007

Gross Domestic Product

Table 3: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Chain-Linked Prices (£m), 2003-2007

Inflation

Table 4: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2003-2007

Unemployment

Table 5: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2003-2007

Household Disposable Income

Table 6: UK Household Disposable Income Per Capita (£), 2003-2007

MARKET POSITION

The UK

Table 7: Share Taken by Rail in the UK Domestic Passenger Transport Sector (billion passenger kilometres and %), 2003-2007

Overseas

Table 8: Share Taken by Rail Passenger Traffic in Europe by Country (million passenger kilometres and %), 2006

2. Market Size

The Total Market

Table 9: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on UK Rail Systems† (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007

Figure 1: Passenger Receipts on UK Rail Systems (£m), Years Ending March 2003-2007

BY MARKET SECTOR

Journey Purpose

Journey to Work

Business Travel

Leisure and Other Personal Travel

Geographical Markets

Table 10: Passenger Receipts on UK Rail Systems by Sector (£m), Years Ending March 2003-2007

National Rail Network Services

Table 11: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on National Rail Services in Great Britain (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007

Urban Rail Services

Table 12: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on Urban Rail Services in Great Britain (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007

International Rail Services

Table 13: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on International Rail Services† (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007

Northern Ireland Railways

Table 14: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on Northern Ireland Railways (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007

3. Industry Background

RECENT HISTORY

The Regulatory Framework

Train Operating Companies

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

The National Rail System

Office of Rail Regulation

The Department for Transport

Network Rail

Train Operations

Table 15: Number of Franchised Train Operators in Great Britain by Holding Company, March 2008

Urban Rail Systems

Transport for London

Other Urban Rail systems

Northern Ireland Railways

International Rail Services

Eurotunnel (Passenger Shuttle)

Eurostar

NUMBER OF COMPANIES

Table 16: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged in the Transport via Railways Sector† by Turnover Sizeband (number and %), 2007

Table 17: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged in the Transport via Railways Sector† by Turnover Sizeband, 2003-2007

EMPLOYMENT

Table 18: Number of Employee Jobs in the Transport via Railways Sector† in Great Britain (000), June 2007

Table 19: Number of Employee Jobs in the Transport via Railways Sector† in Great Britain (000), June 2003-2007

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE MARKETPLACE

Table 20: Rail Travel in Great Britain by City/Region (million passenger kilometres and %), Year Ending March 2007

DISTRIBUTION

HOW ROBUST IS THE MARKET?

LEGISLATION

The Transport Act 2000

Railways Act 2005

White Paper — Delivering a Sustainable Railway

Crossrail Hybrid Bill

key TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

UK Associations

Association of Train Operating Companies

Confederation of Passenger Transport

Light Rail Transit Association

The Railway Forum

International Bodies

L'Association Européenne pour le Développement du Transport Ferroviaire

Union Internationale des Chemins de Fer

Other Rail Related Associations

4. Competitor Analysis

THE MARKETPLACE

MARKET LEADERS

Table 21: Top Ten UK Train Operating Companies by Turnover (£m), Latest Financial Year End

London Underground Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

First Greater Western Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

London & South Eastern Railway Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

West Coast Trains Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Northern Rail Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

South West Trains Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

National Express East Coast

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

New Southern Railway Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

London Eastern Railway Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

First ScotRail Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Other Railway Operators

Northern Ireland Railways Company Ltd

Eurostar (UK) Ltd

The Chiltern Railway Company Ltd

OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS

Introduction

Network Rail

Infrastructure Maintenance Contractors

Rolling Stock Leasing Companies

Train Service Information Providers

Equipment Manufacturers

MARKETING ACTIVITY

Main Media Advertising Expenditure

Table 22: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Rail Passenger Transport by Sector and Main Company (£000 and %), Years Ending December 2006 and 2007

Other Marketing Activity

East Midlands Trains

Eurostar

First ScotRail

London Midland

Manchester Metrolink

Merseyrail

National Express East Coast

Network Rail

South West Trains

Transport for London

Tyne & Wear Metro

Exhibitions/Trade Shows

5. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

6. Buying Behaviour

TRAVEL PATTERNS OF RAIL PASSENGERS

National Travel Survey

Table 23: Number of Trips and Distance Travelled per Person per Year by Surface Rail and London Underground by Purpose of Trip (number, 000 miles and %), 2006

Figure 2: Number of Trips per Person per Year by Surface Rail and London Underground by Purpose of Trip (%), 2006

Trends in Travel by Surface Rail

Table 24: Travel Patterns of Travellers by Surface Rail in Great Britain by Average Distance Travelled, Trip Length, Trip Duration and Number of Trips per Person per Year (miles, hours, minutes and number), 2002-2006

Trends in Travel by London Underground

Table 25: Travel Patterns of Travellers by London Underground by Average Distance Travelled, Trip Length, Trip Duration and Number of Trips per Person per Year (miles, hours, minutes and number), 2002-2006

Key Note Primary Research

Overall Results

Table 26: Rail Travel in Great Britain by Reason for Travel and Frequency of Use (% of respondents), 2008

Journeys to Work, School or College

Table 27: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Journey to Work, School or College (% of respondents), 2008

Business Trips

Table 28: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Business Trip (% of respondents), 2008

Shopping Trips

Table 29: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Shopping Trip (% of respondents), 2008

Leisure Trips

Table 30: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Leisure Trip (% of respondents), 2008

Trips Made for Other Personal Reasons

Table 31: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Trip Made for Other Personal Reasons (% of respondents), 2008

7. Current Issues

REGULATORY ISSUES

Political Background

The Railways Act 2005

Franchising Trends

Rail Performance Trends

Fares Trends

Complaints

RAILWAY INVESTMENT

The Eddington Report

Public Private Partnerships

Investment in Rolling Stock

Capacity Enhancement

Investment in the Regions

IMPACT OF OTHER LEGISLATION

SECURITY and INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM

TECHNOLOGICAL ISSUES

Train Warning and Protection Systems

Railway Security

The Role of the Internet

Other Technological Developments

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

CORPORATE ACTIVITY

Eurotunnel

Chiltern Rail

8. The Global Market

EUROPEAN COMPARISONS

Rail Shares of Passenger Transport

Table 32: Share of Passenger Transport in the EU by Mode of Transport (billion passenger kilometres), 2000-2004

Rail Employment

Table 33: Employment† in Rail Transport in the EU by Country (number), 2004

National Rail Networks

Infrastructure

Table 34: Rail Infrastructure in Selected EU Countries (kilometres, %, million and square kilometres and %), 2003

Table 35: Rail Systems in Europe by Length of Lines (kilometres and %), 2006

Rail Intensity

Table 36: Rail Intensity in the UK Compared with Other Major EU Countries (million and million passenger kilometres), 2006

Trans European Rail Networks

Light Rail Systems

Legislation

CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS

Deutsche Bahn

9. Forecasts

ECONOMIC FORECASTS

Table 37: Forecast UK Economic Indicators, 2008-2012

FORECASTS 2008 to 2012

Table 38: Forecast Passenger Receipts on UK Rail Systems at Current and Constant 2003 Prices (£m), Years Ending March 2008-2012

Market Growth

Figure 3: Forecast Passenger Receipts on UK Rail Systems† at Current Prices (£m), Years Ending March 2003-2012

FUTURE TRENDS

Demographics

Table 39: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000 and %), Mid-Years 2008-2012

Political Uncertainties

International Terrorism

Regulatory Policy Framework

White Paper — Delivering a Sustainable Railway

Network Rail Targets

Technological Changes

Rail Competition

New Services

Eurostar

Renaissance Trains

Transport for London

Modernisation and Investment Projects

Crossrail

Cross River Tram

Croydon Tramlink

Docklands Light Railway Extensions

Edinburgh Light Rail

Rolling Stock

Thameslink Programme

West Coast Main Line

Other Continuing Issues

10. Company Profiles

Arriva Plc

Eurostar (uk) Ltd

Firstgroup Plc

The Go-ahead Group Plc

London Underground Ltd

National Express Group Plc

Network Rail Ltd

Northern Ireland Railways Company Ltd

Stagecoach Group Plc

virgin Rail Group Holdings Ltd

11. Further Sources

Associations

Publications

General Sources

Government Publications

Other Sources

Bisnode Sources

Abstract

In the year ending March 2007, the passenger receipts of the UK market for rail travel amounted to £7.37bn, an increase of 11.4% compared with turnover of £6.61bn in the previous year. This was largely due to a 12.1% rise in the turnover of the national rail sector, although urban rail services also reported healthy growth (of 9%) over the same period, while Northern Ireland Railways' turnover increased by 21.5%.

The UK passenger rail sector is defined to include the services provided on the national rail system by the infrastructure provider, Network Rail, and the train operating companies (TOCs) under franchise, concession and open-access arrangements, as well as the services provided by Northern Ireland Railways. It also includes services offered by urban rail systems, including London Underground and other metro and light rail operators, and the international services provided by Eurostar and the Eurotunnel Passenger Shuttle. The activities of preserved railways — which are regarded more as tourist attractions than transport operations — are not covered in this Key Note Market Report. The UK rail travel market is also analysed in terms of journey purposes, including journeys to work and trips made for business, shopping, leisure or other reasons.

Since 2003, there has been a significant recovery in demand for rail travel. Economic growth and increasing road congestion have facilitated this development; however, the increase in passenger receipts is largely attributable to fare rises, which were considerably higher than the rate of increase in the retail price index (RPI). The urban rail sector is dominated by the largest UK urban railway operator, the London Underground, which, although it has a far higher annual turnover than any single TOC, has not been growing as rapidly as other operators. Across the sector as a whole, revenues have been growing at a faster rate than travel demand — measured by the number of journeys and passenger kilometres (pkms) travelled.

In terms of legislation and the activities of the regulatory authorities, the public sector has exerted a major influence on the financial performance of the rail travel industry and in the perception of the travelling public. In 2007, significant changes were made to the allocation of franchises to the TOCs, in line with the Government's aim to reduce the number of franchises and to create a closer match between these franchises and Network Rail's route structure. New franchises were created, including East Midlands Trains, London Midland, London Overground, National Express East Coast and CrossCountry, following the earlier steps towards the implementation of this policy that were taken in April 2006, with the creation of the Capital Connect and Greater Western franchises.

Despite some signs of a slowdown in the UK economy growth rate, the macro-economic environment is generally favourable to the continued growth of the UK rail passenger market. Travel on urban railways and international services is predicted to grow more slowly than travel on the national network, with capacity constraints limiting growth on the London Underground, and international services continuing to be affected by competition from short-haul sea ferry operators and low-cost airlines.

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